Frost Advisory 1, NWS Pueblo, CO

617 
WWUS75 KPUB 150038
NPWPUB

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
638 PM MDT MON OCT 14 2013

COZ083-086>088-094-151045-
/O.CON.KPUB.FR.Y.0001.131015T0600Z-131015T1500Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FZ.A.0004.131016T0700Z-131016T1500Z/
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-
INCLUDING...CANON CITY...PENROSE...PUEBLO...WALSENBURG...
TRINIDAD...BRANSON...KIM
638 PM MDT MON OCT 14 2013

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
MDT TUESDAY...
...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
MDT TUESDAY. A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. 

* LOCATION...EASTERN FREMONT...PUEBLO...HUERFANO AND LAS ANIMAS 
  COUNTIES. 

* TEMPERATURES...WILL DIP TO BETWEEN 28 AND 34 DEGREES WITH 
  AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED TONIGHT. EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL 
  BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF 
  TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. 

* IMPACT...FROST MAY CAUSE DAMAGE TO TENDER VEGETATION TONIGHT. 
  FREEZING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT COULD CAUSE PIPES TO 
  FREEZE AND RESULT IN THE FIRST WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE OF THE 
  SEASON. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING WILL OCCUR FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME. TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT CROPS OR VEGETATION.

A FREEZE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES MAY DEVELOP.

IT MAY BE NECESSARY FOR YOU TO PROTECT CROPS OR VEGETATION...AND
TO DRAIN EXPOSED WATER PIPES AND IRRIGATION SYSTEMS.

&&

$$

850 
WWUS75 KPUB 150954
NPWPUB

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
354 AM MDT TUE OCT 15 2013

COZ083-086>088-094-151600-
/O.CON.KPUB.FR.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-131015T1500Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FZ.A.0004.131016T0700Z-131016T1500Z/
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-
INCLUDING...CANON CITY...PENROSE...PUEBLO...WALSENBURG...
TRINIDAD...BRANSON...KIM
354 AM MDT TUE OCT 15 2013

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING...
...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING. A
FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. 

* LOCATION...EASTERN FREMONT...PUEBLO...HUERFANO AND LAS ANIMAS 
  COUNTIES. 

* TEMPERATURES...WILL DIP TO BETWEEN 30 AND 34 DEGREES WITH AREAS
  OF FROST EXPECTED THIS MORNING. EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
  POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES
  IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

* IMPACT...FROST MAY CAUSE DAMAGE TO TENDER VEGETATION TONIGHT. 
  FREEZING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT COULD CAUSE PIPES TO 
  FREEZE AND RESULT IN THE FIRST WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE OF THE 
  SEASON. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING WILL OCCUR FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME. TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT CROPS OR VEGETATION.

A FREEZE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES MAY DEVELOP.

IT MAY BE NECESSARY FOR YOU TO PROTECT CROPS OR VEGETATION...AND
TO DRAIN EXPOSED WATER PIPES AND IRRIGATION SYSTEMS.

&&

$$

894 
WWUS75 KPUB 151219
NPWPUB

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
619 AM MDT TUE OCT 15 2013

COZ083-086>088-094-151830-
/O.CAN.KPUB.FR.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-131015T1500Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FZ.A.0004.131016T0700Z-131016T1500Z/
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-
INCLUDING...CANON CITY...PENROSE...PUEBLO...WALSENBURG...
TRINIDAD...BRANSON...KIM
619 AM MDT TUE OCT 15 2013

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...
...FROST ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS CANCELLED THE FROST
ADVISORY. CLOUDS HAVE MODERATED TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S. ANY LOCALIZED POCKETS
OF FROST WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.

A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* LOCATION...EASTERN FREMONT...PUEBLO...HUERFANO AND LAS ANIMAS 
  COUNTIES. 

* TEMPERATURES...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
  UPPER 20S IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACT...FREEZING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT COULD CAUSE PIPES TO
  FREEZE AND RESULT IN THE FIRST WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE OF THE
  SEASON.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES MAY DEVELOP.

IT MAY BE NECESSARY FOR YOU TO PROTECT CROPS OR VEGETATION...AND
TO DRAIN EXPOSED WATER PIPES AND IRRIGATION SYSTEMS.

&&

$$
SR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1137 AM MDT MON OCT 14 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM MDT MON OCT 14 2013

UPDATED FORECAST TO BOOST WINDS ALONG SOME OF THE LOWER EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MTS. SOME OF THE MTN RAWS...AND CDOT SENSORS
ALONG I-25 ARE REPORTING GUSTS TO AROUND 40-50 MPH. THINK THE BRUNT
OF THESE GUSTS WILL BE THIS MORNING AS DOWNWARD FORCING BEHIND THE
TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE WINDS COME UP ACROSS
THE PLAINS...AND COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE OUT THAT
WAY. ALSO FLIRTING WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS AS
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT.
HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD START TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON TAKING THE
EDGE OF GUSTS. WITH THE RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT OVER MOST
AREAS...THIS SHOULD BRIEFLY MITIGATE RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON OCT 14 2013

CURRENTLY...

AT 2 AM...CENTER OF STRONG TROUGH TO OUR WEST WAS LOCATED OVER EAST
CENTRAL UTAH AND WAS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST. DRIER AIR WAS ADVECTING
IN ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
CWA...WHILE MORE FAVORABLE LIFT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE NW SECTIONS OF
THE CWA. SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MTN REGION. SOME OF THE SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS WERE BEGINNING TO
INTENSIFY.

TODAY...

MAIN CONCERN IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM IS STRONGER CONVECTION OVER
THE PLAINS. SFC APPEARS STABLE BUT SOME ELEVATED CAPE...SEVERAL
HUNDRED JOULES....WAS NOTED IN THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE. WITH
STRONG FORCING COMING OUT AND SOME CAPE...SOME OF THE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG.

AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS AND EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO END FROM SW TO SE OVER THE PLAINS
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. WINDS WILL PICK UP ON THE PLAINS FROM THE
WEST BY MID MORNING AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
BY 12 NOON...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE WEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH.

TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY WILL BE MILD AND EXPECT 70S MOST AREAS
BELOW 5000 FT...WITH 60S ELSEWHERE.

SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER EL PASO COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER WITH WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC PICKING UP...I DO
NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP.

OVER THE C MTNS SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. A FEW INCHES OF
NEW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...22Z...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PALMER
DIVIDE USHERING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON OCT 14 2013

...HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING...
...CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...

TUESDAY...LOOKS TO BE A COOL AND CLOUDY DAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
A TWENTY PLUS DEGREE SPREAD IN MOS GUIDANCE FOR KPUB TUE
AFTERNOON...WITH GFS SHOWING FREEZING TEMPS AND NAM PROGGING 50S.
BASED ON THE PATTERN AND TEMPS ALOFT...40S LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET FOR
THE PLAINS. THE CHANCE OF SOME SPOTTY SHSN WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AS AN UPSTREAM LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER UT...AND LIFT INCREASES OVER
THE CENTRAL MTS. BY TUE EVE THE LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD SPREAD TO THE
ERN MTS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. SNOW ACCUMS CONTINUE TO LOOK LIGHT...IN
THE ONE TO FOUR INCH RANGE...SO HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. LOW
TEMPS FOR WED MORNING WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY IT CLEARS OUT.
TEMPS ALOFT COULD SUPPORT SOME TEMPS IN THE TEENS FOR THE PLAINS IF
IT TOTALLY CLEARED...BUT MORE LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL
CLOUD COVER THAT WILL TEMPER THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. STILL...A HARD
FREEZE FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR LOOKS LIKE A SAFE BET.

THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN
MTS...BUT OTHERWISE THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING AND COOL BUT
PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF OUR AREA. THERE STILL ARE SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE
THU INTO FRI...BUT AS WAS ANTICIPATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS WILL MEET EACH OTHER ABOUT HALF WAY. THE GFS
IS STARTING TO DEVELOP A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH...ALTHOUGH IT STILL
DOES NOT PROG ANY PRECIP FOR OUR AREA. THE EC IS HOLDING TO ITS
SOLUTION OF A DEEPER TROUGH AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP FOR CO...WHICH
WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ALL SNOW AS H7 TEMPS ARE IN THE MINUS 6 TO
MINUS 8 RANGE. HOWEVER...THE LATEST EC IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED OR COLD
AS PREVIOUS RUNS HAD BEEN. HAVE TRENDED POPS AND TEMPS TOWARDS THE
LATEST ECMWF...WHICH IS GETTING INCREASED SUPPORT FORM THE NAM AND
OTHER GUIDANCE. NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF PRECIP...BUT IT COULD BE THE
FIRST SNOW FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR. AFTER THAT...NOT MUCH TO TALK
ABOUT AS A BROAD RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...AND
OUR AREA REMAINS IN A COOL BUT DRY NW FLOW PATTERN. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT MON OCT 14 2013

EXTENDED PERIOD FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN KCOS TAF AS WINDS
THERE ARE STILL SOUTHEAST AT 10 KTS. IT WILL BE A FINE LINE AS TO
WHERE THE WNW WINDS ARE BLOWING AND WHERE THEY ARE NOT ACROSS EL
PASO COUNTY. MOST SITES ARE GUSTING FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST 15-30+KTS
ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY...WITH KCOS REMAINING IN THE WAKE FLOW
REGION OF PIKES PEAK. WITH TIME AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY...THE NORTHWEST WINDS JUST NORTH OF THE TAF SITE
SHOULD SPREAD INTO KCOS ENDING THE THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR. HAVE THIS TIMED AT 20Z BASED ON LATEST HRRR...BUT WILL HAVE
TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. OTHER TAF SITES...KPUB AND KALS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY WEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY SHIFTING WINDS FROM THE NORTH.
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ACCELERATE THIS PROCESS AT KCOS...AND HAVE
THE WIND SHIFT TAKING PLACE THERE AT 21Z...AND A LITTLE
LATER...23Z AT KPUB. WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY MOST OF THE NIGHT FOR
KCOS AND KPUB...BEFORE BRIEFLY DIMINISHING TOWARDS TUESDAY
MORNING. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...KT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
641 AM MDT MON OCT 14 2013

COZ058>089-093>099-151245-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
641 AM MDT MON OCT 14 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ARKANSAS
RIVER VALLEY. UNPROTECTED PLANTS COULD BE DAMAGED BY THE FREEZE.

IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT SOME LIKE SNOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...BUT THE ENTIRE AREA INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE
25 CORRIDOR...COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL
POSSIBLE TODAY AND THIS EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

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