Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Pueblo, CO

537 
WGUS75 KPUB 042253 RRA
FFSPUB

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
453 PM MDT SUN AUG 4 2013

COC041-050130-
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-130805T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
EL PASO CO-
453 PM MDT SUN AUG 4 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY
UNTIL 730 PM MDT...

AT 450 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 
PUEBLO DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES 
HAS FALLEN IN AN AREA FROM 4 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF FALCON TO 3 
MILES NORTH OF FALCON...TO 4 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF FALCON.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...FALCON 
AND PETERSON AFB.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN HILLY TERRAIN...THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH
ARE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT ONLY TAKES A FEW
INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3901 10456 3896 10445 3881 10469 3893 10476
      3901 10476

$$

331 
WGUS75 KPUB 042348
FFSPUB

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
548 PM MDT SUN AUG 4 2013

COC041-050003-
/O.CAN.KPUB.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-130805T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
EL PASO CO-
548 PM MDT SUN AUG 4 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL EL PASO
COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3901 10456 3896 10445 3881 10469 3893 10476
      3901 10476

$$

KAM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
301 PM MDT SUN AUG 4 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SUN AUG 4 2013

...HEAVY RAIN ON THE BURN SCARS MAIN CONCERN IN SHORT TERM...

RELATIVELY QUIET DAY SO FAR BY COMPARISON AS WE LACK ANY APPARENT
SHORTWAVES TO ACT ON THE MONSOON PLUME AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STILL POOLED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  GRADUALLY BUILDING RIDGE
ALOFT WILL LIMIT DEEP LAYER SHEARS TODAY WHICH SHOULD DECREASE
PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  HOWEVER WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS...CAPE VALUES ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS COULD APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG...PERHAPS UP TO 2000 J/KG
FARTHER EAST...BUT SOUNDINGS LOOK CAPPED OUT THAT WAY. SO A STRONG
STORM OR TWO WITH THE INITIAL UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE SOME NEAR
SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS.  WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME
POCKETS OF DRYING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MTS...WHERE DEW POINTS ARE
DROPPING INTO THE 40S AND EVEN UPPER 30S...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
POCKETS OF HIGHER CAPE ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES WHERE DEW
POINTS ARE PROGGED BY MODELS TO STAY UP...SO LOOKING IN THESE
REGIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS TODAY.  WITH PRECIP WATERS
110 TO 130 PERCENT OF NORMAL (HIGHEST OUT EAST) MAIN THREAT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WITH BURN SCARS AND
AREAS WITH WET GROUND FROM YESTERDAY'S HEAVY RAINFALL MOST AT
RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.  FORTUNATELY WITHOUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE OR BOUNDARY TO ACT AS A FOCUS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIT
OR MISS AS FAR AS THE BURN SCARS GO...SO NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS
NEEDED AT THIS POINT.  HOWEVER...WE COULD EASILY SEE RAINFALL RATES
OF 2"+ PER HOUR SO AN UNLIKELY STRIKE COULD CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR THE BURN SCARS...PARTICULARLY WALDO.  LATEST
HIGH RES SHORT RANGE MODELS HIGHLIGHT THE 3-6 PM TIME FRAME FOR THE
GREATEST RISK.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH LACK OF FORCING TO KEEP THEM
GOING.  ON MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DRYING SFC DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE MTS/ADJACENT PLAINS...PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST MTS. THUS THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS A LITTLE LOWER
AND LCLS A LITTLE HIGHER.  THIS MAY HELP DECREASE PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCIES SOME...BUT OF COURSE WITH VERY SENSITIVE CONDITIONS
OVER THE BURN SCARS...ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD STILL EASILY
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.  THEREFORE CLOSE MONITORING WILL
CONTINUE...BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS NECESSARY AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY. -KT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SUN AUG 4 2013

ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER TEXAS...AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. BOTH LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATING
LITTLE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THESE FEATURES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SEVERAL STRONG DISTURBANCES WILL
ROTATE NORTHWARD OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS COLORADO.
THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ONGOING MONDAY
EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREADING EAST INTO THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THREATS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WILL
BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN ACTIVITY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND DEVELOPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LIGHTNING.

MODELS HAVING TIMING DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS TO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GFS HAS SPED UP THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT
TO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE EC AND PREVIOUS GFS RUN HELD OFF THE
FRONT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW TRENDED WITH THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS WITH THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL SHIFT LOW LEVEL WINDS EASTERLY AND USHER IN DEEPER MOISTURE
TO THE EASTERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE A STRONG DISTURBANCE OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY....ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE
COLORADO PLAINS. FLASH FLOODING ON AREA BURN SCARS WILL BE OF HIGH
CONCERN GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS WILL BUILD NORTH OVER COLORADO BY
THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK NORTH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS EACH DAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE PLAINS...AND DEPEND HEAVILY
ON THE AMOUNT OF STEERING FLOW ALOFT...INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON AREA BURN SCARS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SUN AUG 4 2013

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.  AT THIS
POINT...KCOS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO BE AFFECTED BY TSRA
SO HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAF.  KPUB AND KALS WILL HAVE
A SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCE...THOUGH WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AT SOME POINT.  BEST CHANCE WILL BE AFTER 22Z THROUGH
02Z.  HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY TSRA TODAY.  VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY WITH A MUCH LOWER CHANCE FOR STRATUS/PATCHY
FOG.  NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
ON MONDAY LEADING TO SOME ENHANCED NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE
MORNING FOR KCOS AND KPUB.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1115 AM MDT SUN AUG 4 2013

COZ058>089-093>099-051715-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1115 AM MDT SUN AUG 4 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AROUND NOON...SPREADING EASTWARD TO THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND
EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN ADDITION TO BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG EAST OF INTERSTATE
25...AND COULD ALSO PRODUCE SOME HAIL UP TO NICKLE SIZE.

FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN...PARTICULARLY OVER THE BURN
SCARS AND THOSE AREAS THAT SAW HEAVY RAINFALL ON SATURDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE MONSOON PLUME IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR EVERY DAY OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS
WILL RANGE FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.

LATEST COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MAY BE MORE ACTIVE THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A
SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE STATE FROM KANSAS.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM STORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO 40 OR 50 MPH...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. ANY STORM WHICH PRODUCES HEAVY RAIN AND MOVES
OVER ANY OF THE RECENT BURN SCARS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 1 PM TODAY FOR TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES...AND FOR
ALL OF THE EASTERN PLAINS EAST OF INTERSTATE 25 AFTER 300 PM MDT.

31/88

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
358 PM MDT SUN AUG 04 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 E MONUMENT            39.10N 104.81W
08/03/2013  E1.75 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ONE HOUR TOTAL.

&&

PJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
413 PM MDT SUN AUG 04 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     HAIL             3 N FALCON              38.98N 104.61W
08/04/2013  M0.75 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
416 PM MDT SUN AUG 04 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0411 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W BLACK FOREST        39.01N 104.74W
08/04/2013                   EL PASO            CO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MUD...ASH...AND WATER OVER THE ROAD AT SHOUP AND
            PEREGRINE.

&&

PJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
418 PM MDT SUN AUG 04 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             2 NNE FALCON            38.96N 104.61W
08/04/2013  E0.75 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LOTS OF PEA TO PENNY SIZED HAIL.

&&

STARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
421 PM MDT SUN AUG 4 2013

COZ074-075-087-088-042345-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-SOUTHERN SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN
LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO
RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
421 PM MDT SUN AUG 4 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...

  SOUTH CENTRAL HUERFANO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO...
  WEST CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO...
   THIS INCLUDES THE EAST PEAK BURN SCAR.

AT 417 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM APPROXIMATELY 1 MILE TO THE SOUTH OF THE EAST
PEAK BURN SCAR...WHICH WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  EAST PEAK BURN SCAR.
  SPANISH PEAKS.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY FALL JUST SOUTH OF THE EAST PEAK BURN
SCAR...HOWEVER SECTIONS OF THE EAST PEAK BURN AREA MAY RECEIVE UP TO
.40 OF RAIN. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS STORM COULD INTENSIFY FURTHER
SO PLEASE STAY ALERT FOR ANY POSSIBLE ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING STORM.  IN ADDITION...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF PENNIES AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
423 PM MDT SUN AUG 04 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     HAIL             4 SSW BLACK FOREST      38.96N 104.73W
08/04/2013  M1.00 INCH       EL PASO            CO   COCORAHS

&&

STARK