Areal Flood Warning 1, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
235 PM MDT FRI AUG 9 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT FRI AUG 9 2013

...MODESTLY DRIER AND LESS ACTIVE SATURDAY...

.CURRENTLY...CONVECTION IS FIRING OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND
THE PIKES PEAK REGION.  SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO
HELPING TO FIRE THE CONVECTION.  DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S OVER THE REGION...WHICH IS NOT AS MOIST AS THE PAST FEW
DAYS.

.TONIGHT...THE SHORTER RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON CONVECTION
MOSTLY DRIFTING EAST OF INTERSTATE 25 DURING THE EVENING AND
WEAKENING.  NEXT DISTURBANCE IS IN ARIZONA MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST.
IT WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
AFTER 06Z.  SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING LOCAL
WRF...HAVE SOME CONVECTION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  IN THE GRIDS MAINTAINED SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.
SUSPECT THE CONVECTION WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG OVERNIGHT.

.SATURDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SLIGHTLY STRONGER DURING THE DAY WITH
SOME DRIER AIR IN MIDDLE LEVELS MOVING INTO THE AREA.  STILL
ANTICIPATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WITH SOME STORMS CONTINUING TO THE EAST OVER THE PLAINS. STILL
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THE
STORMS...BUT CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LESS.  WITH
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 500MB...STORMS WILL BE MOVING
QUICKLY...AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BELOW 600MB WILL BE LESS THAN
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT FRI AUG 9 2013

SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  WITH SOME MONSOON
MOISTURE IN PLACE ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WANE AS DIURNAL
HEATING ENDS...AND MOST RAINFALL SHOULD END BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...RIDGE WILL SHIFT A BIT TO THE WEST AS NORTHERN
PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND BRING
SOME EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL
BELOW 1000 J/KG...SO THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS LOW.
STILL...A STRAY SHOWER OVER THE BURN SCARS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC.
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 70S TO
LOWER 80S HIGH VALLEYS...AND 50S AND 60S MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY...WITH UPSLOPE FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...CONVECTION WILL AGAIN FIRE UP BY MIDDAY.  A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS OUR EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES...WITH CAPE
VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG...SO STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MEANTIME...IN THE WEST DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST
PROMINENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY THE UPPER PATTERN FEATURES A TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/PLAINS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE COLORADO
PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
SOMEWHAT OF A DRYING TREND ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING WEST...SHUTTING OFF...TO SOME
EXTENT...THE MONSOON PLUME. SO...DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP BY MIDDAY MOST AREAS...WITH THE RISK OF SLOW MOVING STORMS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...70S HIGH VALLEYS...AND 50S
AND 60S MOUNTAINS. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT FRI AUG 9 2013

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE BY MID EVENING.  ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF COLORADO
OVERNIGHT.  DISTURBANCE MAY RESULT IN SOME THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT...BUT BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY
THUNDER IN TAFS.  ON SATURDAY...AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
LESS THAN FRIDAY.  EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP BY MID
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY REGIONS...WITH SOME
CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD.  CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MID
EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...PGW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1153 AM MDT FRI AUG 9 2013

COZ058>089-093>099-101800-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1153 AM MDT FRI AUG 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. THE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. LOCAL FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGER STORMS OR STORMS WHICH MOVE
SLOWLY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ON AREA BURN SCARS...SO A WATCHFUL
EYE TO THE SKY WILL BE NECESSARY ONCE AGAIN TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO FROM SATURDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY EXPECTED FROM LATER MONDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY.
THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS THAT ISOLATED HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR AREA BURN SCARS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO TODAY.

06/06

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
653 PM MDT FRI AUG 9 2013

COZ084-085-100130-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7400 FT-NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
653 PM MDT FRI AUG 9 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...

  CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
   THIS INCLUDES...SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO SPRINGS.

AT 650 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SCHRIEVER AFB...OR 18 MILES EAST OF COLORADO
SPRINGS...WHICH WAS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ELLICOTT.
  YODER.
  TRUCKTON.
  RUSH.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
658 PM MDT FRI AUG 9 2013

COZ079-083-086-100130-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-PUEBLO VICINITY/PUEBLO
COUNTY BELOW 6300 FEET-WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000FT-
658 PM MDT FRI AUG 9 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...

  EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FREMONT COUNTY IN CENTRAL COLORADO...
  EXTREME EAST CENTRAL CUSTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO...
  WEST CENTRAL PUEBLO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO...
   THIS INCLUDES...SOUTHWESTERN PUEBLO.

AT 655 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES WEST OF PUEBLO RESERVOIR...OR 20 MILES
WEST OF PUEBLO...WHICH WAS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PUEBLO RESERVOIR.
  SOUTHWESTERN PUEBLO.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS AROUND 50 MPH...AND HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

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