Special Weather Statement, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
200 PM MDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. EARLY AFTERNOON
SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS CANADA AS THE SWRN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH AXIS
APPEARED TO BE SWINGING INTO THE NW COAST. A MODEST 50KT UPPER LEVEL
JET SEGMENT WAS INDICATED IN THE MODEL DATA LIFTING NE INTO MONTANA
WHICH LIKELY HELPED INITIATE STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN
HIGHLANDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AIDED BY VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AS THE TROUGH AXIS MIGRATES EAST THROUGH OREGON THIS EVENING. THE
NAM WAS SHOWING SOME WEAK PRECIPITATION RETURNS DEVELOPING OVER THE
ERN MAGIC VALLEY/SNAKE RIVER PLAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING...LIKELY THE
RESULT OF THE TROUGH AXIS WORKING ACROSS SRN IDAHO. HENCE HAVE ADDED
SOME MENTION OF NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS TO SE IDAHO LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MIGRATE
EAST ACROSS CANADA...A HANG BACK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NW
COAST TUESDAY WHERE IT WILL LINGER AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING ENE ACROSS THE NW STATES. THE
POSITION OF THE LOW WILL PLACE SE IDAHO BETWEEN THE DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO OUR NW AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO OUR
SOUTH. THUS HAVE CONTINUED A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. THE GFS IS SHOWING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
WAVE EJECTING FROM THE LOW WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PLACE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS UNDER THE GUN FOR WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE IF THE PATTERN/TIMING PERSISTS.
HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CURRENT IMPACTS EXPECTED AT KSUN AND
KIDA THROUGH THE EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A TROUGH
AXIS ROTATING THROUGH SRN OREGON WHICH THE MODELS DRIVE EAST THROUGH
SRN IDAHO TONIGHT. THE NAM RESPONDED WITH ISOLATED NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KBYI/KPIH/KIDA LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. WILL
ADVISE ONCOMING SHIFT FOR POTENTIAL INCLUSION IN NEXT FORECAST
ISSUANCE AT 1730 MDT. HUSTON
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING MODERATE WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH AS WELL AS
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS.
ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHERN EASTERN HIGHLANDS. EXPECT
WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.  RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT OVER MOST AREAS. SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE CRITICAL FUEL AREAS WILL GO BELOW 15 PERCENT
PARTICULARLY NEAR CHALLIS. ALSO AN AREA EXTENDING FROM CRATERS OF
THE MOON EAST ACROSS INL WILL HAVE STRONG WINDS OVER 30 MPH AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15 PERCENT. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
MONDAY OVER THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS BECAUSE OF
ANOTHER TROUGH. FURTHERMORE LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH RESIDUAL SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE. EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH MODERATE TO HIGH WINDS AND GOOD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
PARTICULARLY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WYATT
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
508 AM MDT SUN JUL 28 2013

IDZ017>025-031-032-291245-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
508 AM MDT SUN JUL 28 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN IDAHO...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
SNAKE RIVER. BRIEF DOWNPOURS...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WIND UP TO
40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EACH MORNING AND AFTERNOON
EVERY DAY. THE HIGHEST RISK AREA WILL SWITCH FROM DAY TO DAY. THE
DAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ASK TRAINED SPOTTERS AND CITIZENS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
INCLUDE HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WIND...DUST STORMS...SNOWFALL...
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN OR HEAVY RAIN...DENSE
FOG...AND FLOODING OR ICE JAMS. INFORMATION ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALLED INTO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR
208-233-0834.

MESSICK

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