Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
115 PM MDT TUE SEP 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A PACIFIC
TROUGH SHIFTING INLAND ACROSS WRN OREGON WITH AN ASSOCIATED JET
SEGMENT ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND PUNCHING EAST THROUGH
NRN CALIFORNIA. THE NAM MODEL SUGGESTS THAT A STRONG SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE SNAKE PLAIN BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER JET CURLS NE ACROSS NRN NEVADA PLACING
THE TWO FEATURES IN A POSITION TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS SE
IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON/EVE PARTICULARLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY
RAIN AND HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT GENERALLY ENDS AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE
TO THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND LIFT AS THE FRONT SHIFTS DEEPER
INTO WYOMING/NRN UTAH. THE UPPER TROUGH SLIPS INTO WRN
MONTANA/WYOMING WEDNESDAY WITH A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL WINDS LINGERING ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN
TO SUPPORT A MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY EVENT. THUS HAVE ADDED THIS
HIGHLIGHT FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN ZONES TO THE ONGOING LAKE WIND
HIGHLIGHT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR. THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL LINGER ALONG THE MONTANA/WYOMING
BORDERS WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WORKS EAST THROUGH
THE REGION. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A PROGRESSIVE S/WV RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE NW STATES WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS SE IDAHO. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S SUPPORTING A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SNAKE
PLAIN AND ERN MAGIC VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
WARM GRADUALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE
TRANSITIONS EAST OF THE AREA AND A DEEPER SW FLOW SPREADS INTO THE
REGION. THE NEXT UPSTREAM PAC TROUGH WILL LIFT NE ACROSS
WASHINGTON/OREGON SATURDAY WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD SPREADING INTO THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS THE BULK OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION WHEREAS THE 00Z ECMWF WAS
INDICATING A MORE SPLIT LOOKING TROUGH WITH PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION
SPREADING ACROSS SRN IDAHO SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY UNDER THE SRN
PORTION OF THE SPLIT. HAVE MAINTAINED A BROAD BRUSH CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION OWING TO THE MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE 00Z ECMWF...ALTHOUGH THE SPLIT LOOK OF THE
SOLUTION WOULD NOT BE ALL THAT SUPPORTIVE OF THE LEVEL OF
PRECIPITATION INDICATED BY THE MODEL. INTERESTED TO SEE WHAT THE 12Z
RUN BRINGS WHEN IT POSTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY
MONDAY/TUESDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A MOIST WEST FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE NEXT PAC LOW ADVANCES TOWARD THE NW COAST. PREVIOUS
RUNS WERE SHOWING A DEEP LOW DROPPING INTO THE WEST COAST/GREAT
BASIN BY MID-WEEK...HOWEVER THE 12Z GFS IS NOW FAVORING A
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF WAS FAVORING A LOW TRACKING EAST ACROSS
SRN CANADA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH THE SRN EXTENT OF THE SYSTEM
SWEEPING INTO SRN IDAHO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SO NOT A WHOLE LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE SOLUTION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH IS JUST
OUTSIDE OUR FORECAST TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES TAKE A DIGGER TOMORROW
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND GRADUALLY WARM TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY FRIDAY. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE SET UP AT PIH WITH SUSTAINED
20 PLUS KNOTS AND GUSTS OVER 30.  EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE AT LEAST A TEMPO AT ALL TAF SITES INTO EARLY
EVENING.  SHOULD SEE EXTENSIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE FRONT
EXPECT DRYING BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WITH SUSTAINED
20 PLUS KNOTS EXPECTED AT PIH...BYI AND IDA. GK
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SURFACE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO
THIS EVENING.  EXPECT EXTENSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED.
WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE 30 TO 40
MPH RANGE.   WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST TO SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT.  GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE IN THE SNAKE PLAIN AND
SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.  EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS WITH
NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TOMORROW.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES COLDER WEDNESDAY. GK
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ021.

WIND ADVISORY WEDNESDAY IDZ020-021.

FROST ADVISORY THURSDAY MORNING IDZ017-020-021.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
356 AM MDT TUE SEP 17 2013

IDZ017>025-031-032-181000-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
356 AM MDT TUE SEP 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN IDAHO. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL. 15-30MPH WINDS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ARE LIKELY STARTING LATER TODAY AND INTO THE NIGHT...OUT OF
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MORE WESTERLY BEHIND IT. A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 1-7PM FOR AMERICAN FALLS
RESERVOIR.

STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HALF OF THE SNAKE
PLAIN. HIGH WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS. STORMS SHOULD
QUICKLY WIND DOWN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND SUNSET ARRIVES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY. WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY TOMORROW...BUT REMAIN RIGHT AT THE
30MPH SUSTAINED THRESHOLD FOR A WIND ADVISORY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE 10-20 DEGREES COLDER VS TODAY...ONLY
IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
COLD...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S FOR MOST OF US. IT WILL DROP
INTO THE 10S FOR PLACES LIKE STANLEY AND COPPER BASIN. A FROST
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH THE SNAKE PLAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ASK TRAINED SPOTTERS AND CITIZENS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
INCLUDE HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WIND...DUST STORMS...SNOWFALL...
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN OR HEAVY RAIN...DENSE
FOG...AND FLOODING OR ICE JAMS. INFORMATION ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALLED INTO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR
208-233-0834.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
305 PM MDT TUE SEP 17 2013

IDZ020>022-172200-
BINGHAM ID-BONNEVILLE ID-POWER ID-CASSIA ID-BANNOCK ID-
305 PM MDT TUE SEP 17 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN POCATELLO HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN CASSIA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO
  NORTHWESTERN BANNOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO
  POWER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO
  EXTREME NORTHWESTERN BONNEVILLE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO
  WESTERN BINGHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO

UNTIL 400 PM MDT

AT 304 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ABERDEEN TO 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEELEY..AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50
MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   FORT HALL BANNOCK PEAK AND  NEELEY...
   AMERICAN FALLS...
   ABERDEEN...
   FORT HALL BANNOCK CREEK LODGE...
   STERLING...
   POCATELLO... SPRINGFIELD AND  TABER...
   FORT HALL BUFFALO LODGE...
   PINGREE...

LAT...LON 4245 11319 4311 11305 4311 11301 4321 11300
      4363 11249 4281 11247 4279 11252 4273 11246
      4261 11246
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 213DEG 43KT 4307 11292 4262 11309

DMH

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