Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1216 PM MDT WED SEP 4 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW OFF THE PAC NW COAST CONTINUES TO PUMP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO ID TODAY...BUT NOT QUITE AS RIPE AS
YESTERDAY. ALSO...DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE THE FORCING MECHANISMS.
NOT SEEING MUCH SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT...TSTM COVERAGE TODAY SHOULD BE LESS
WIDESPREAD. NAM MODEL DID NOT INITIALIZE WELL THIS MORNING WITH
RESPECT TO THE QPF. NAM QPF ATTEMPTED TO PAINT HEAVY PRECIP NEAR
THE DIVIDE...BUT LITTLE ACTUALLY OCCURRED. THIS MAY HAVE AN IMPACT
ON THE ACCURACY OF THE QPF SOLUTION TODAY. THE GFS SUGGESTS MUCH
LESS TSTM COVERAGE TODAY...AS DOES THE HI RES MODEL. THE HIGH RES
IS BRINGING A WAVE OF PRECIP INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FCST
AREA LATE TONIGHT. THU LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN DAY. WITH
GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM RAIN YESTERDAY...HAVE EXTENDED BOTH
THE AREA AND TIME OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL THU EVE.

STILL EXPECT TO SEE LINGERING MTN TSTMS FRI AND SAT AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES TO THE ID PANHANDLE. THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES OUT OF
THE PICTURE ON SUNDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGING BECOMING THE DOMINANT
FEATURE NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS SUN THRU
WED. HEDGES

&&

.AVIATION...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO HELP TRIGGER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN IDAHO THROUGH TOMORROW. KSUN AND KBYI
LIKELY STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING -SHRA/-TSRA ON SITE BASED ON
THE LATEST INFO THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE...JUST ABOUT ANYONE COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THAT IS WHY WE ARE KEEPING VCSH OR VCTS IN FOR ALL TAF
SITES. TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT FOR ALL
AREAS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WITH STRONGEST STORMS.
WHILE NOT A CERTAINTY...SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE MORNING IN
AREAS WHERE IT RAINS TODAY OR ENOUGH MOISTURE IS LEFT OVER FROM
YESTERDAY.  KEYES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. THE BEST CHANCE THROUGH TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE ZONES. ALL AREAS ARE LOOKING AT POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE. HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE A
LITTLE MORE RIPE FOR SOME HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY TOMORROW.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THE LOW EASTWARD ALONG THE U.S./CANADA
BORDER...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS NOW A BIT FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS
MOVING IT EASTWARD. BECAUSE OF THAT...WE ARE KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WE SHOULD EVENTUALLY
DRY OUT FOR ALL AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH A COLD FRONT AND THE
SYSTEM ITSELF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE BREEZY. HOWEVER...CRITICAL WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND HUMIDITY
VALUES DON'T DROP A WHOLE LOT DURING THE DAY. KEYE

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
IDZ017-018-021>023-031.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
559 AM MDT WED SEP 4 2013

IDZ017>025-031-032-051200-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
559 AM MDT WED SEP 4 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY AGAIN TODAY OVER THE AREA PARTICULARLY
THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS PROMPTING A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

EVEN HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THURSDAY.
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ASK TRAINED SPOTTERS AND CITIZENS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
INCLUDE HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WIND...DUST STORMS...SNOWFALL...
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN OR HEAVY RAIN...DENSE
FOG...AND FLOODING OR ICE JAMS. INFORMATION ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALLED INTO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR
208-233-0834.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
634 PM MDT WED SEP 4 2013

IDZ017-050115-
LINCOLN ID-
634 PM MDT WED SEP 4 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN POCATELLO HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO

UNTIL 715 PM MDT

AT 632 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SHOSHONE..MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RURAL CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY...

LAT...LON 4315 11441 4302 11413 4282 11431 4290 11454
TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 216DEG 12KT 4295 11440

RS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
651 PM MDT WED SEP 04 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     HAIL             S SHOSHONE              42.94N 114.40W
09/04/2013  M0.75 INCH       LINCOLN            ID   OTHER FEDERAL

            WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED TO 20 MPH. ACTUALLY DESCRIBED AS
            DIME SIZE.

&&

JMESSICK