Red Flag Warning 23, NWS Pocatello, ID

245 
WWUS85 KPIH 232019
RFWPIH

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
219 PM MDT FRI AUG 23 2013

IDZ410-413-427-475-476-240400-
/O.CON.KPIH.FW.W.0023.000000T0000Z-130824T0400Z/
UPPER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY/IDAHO FALLS BLM-CARIBOU RANGE/CARIBOU NF-
GOOSE CREEK AND RAFT RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHERN SAWTOOTH NF-
EAST SALMON RIVER MOUNTAINS/SALMON NF-
LEMHI AND LOST RIVER RANGE/CHALLIS NF-
219 PM MDT FRI AUG 23 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FOR FIRE ZONES
410...413...427...475 AND 476...

* AFFECTED AREA: IN IDAHO...FIRE ZONE 410 UPPER SNAKE RIVER 
  VALLEY/IDAHO FALLS BLM...FIRE ZONE 413 CARIBOU RANGE/CARIBOU 
  NF...FIRE ZONE 427 GOOSE CREEK AND RAFT RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHERN 
  SAWTOOTH NF...FIRE ZONE 475 EAST SALMON RIVER 
  MOUNTAINS/SALMON NF...FIRE ZONE 476 LEMHI AND LOST RIVER 
  RANGE/CHALLIS NF. 

* TIMING: THROUGH 10 PM.

* THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE 
  WARNING AREA. A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
  ANTICIPATED WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY 
  RAINFALL. 

* OUTFLOW WINDS: WINDS GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS:THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE NEW LIGHTNING FIRE STARTS...
   EVEN WITH STORMS THAT PRODUCE MORE RAINFALL. GUSTY OUTFLOW 
  WINDS WILL PROMOTE RAPID FIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD WITH ANY NEW 
  OR EXISTING FIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. PLEASE ADVISE THE
APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD OF THE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO.

&&

$$


HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/POCATELLO

355 
WWUS85 KPIH 240350
RFWPIH

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
950 PM MDT FRI AUG 23 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FOR FIRE ZONES 410...413...
427...475 AND 476...

IDZ410-413-427-475-476-240500-
/O.EXP.KPIH.FW.W.0023.000000T0000Z-130824T0400Z/
UPPER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY/IDAHO FALLS BLM-CARIBOU RANGE/CARIBOU NF-
GOOSE CREEK AND RAFT RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHERN SAWTOOTH NF-
EAST SALMON RIVER MOUNTAINS/SALMON NF-
LEMHI AND LOST RIVER RANGE/CHALLIS NF-
950 PM MDT FRI AUG 23 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FOR FIRE ZONES 410...413...
427...475 AND 476...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING. 


$$


HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/POCATELLO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
329 AM MDT FRI AUG 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTH AND
EAST ACROSS IDAHO TODAY ONCE AGAIN. THE ORIGINAL LOW THAT WAS OFFSHORE
THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE ITS WEAKENING TREND AND SLIDE
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GOING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY
ON...AND WILL DO SO THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. AS WE GET TOWARD
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON OTHER STORMS WILL FIRE ACROSS THE
AREA AS A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH. THE BEST
CHANCE STORMS WILL BE EAST OF THE CHALLIS-CAREY-CITY OF ROCKS
LINE. THIS LINES UP WITH A FRONT THAT WILL PUSH EASTWARD...BUT NOT
REALLY ANY FARTHER THAN THAT. STORMS TODAY MAY BE STRONG/LOCALLY
SEVERE WITH WINDS OVER 40MPH AND SMALL HAIL...ALONG LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. IF ONE OF THESE HEAVY RAINERS HAPPENS TO FALL OVER A RECENT
BURNED AREA...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING AND
DEBRIS FLOWS. SINCE THIS WOULD BE LOCALIZED...WE WILL NOT ISSUE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ANY LOCATIONS FOR NOW. WE WILL SEE THE FRONT
ACTUALLY PULL BACK TO THE WEST AND REMAIN NEAR OUR WESTERN
FORECAST BORDER OR CLOSER TO BOISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING MOISTURE INTO EASTERN
IDAHO...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN EACH
OTHER...WITH THE NAM BRINGING STORMS FARTHER WEST ON SUNDAY. FOR
THAT DAY WE WENT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE WEST TO AT
LEAST ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOMETHING FORMING. WE WILL BE
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM AREAS...WITH SUNDAY
LOOKING QUITE BREEZY WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WEST...BUT STRUGGLE WITH WHERE TO
PLACE THE BIG MONSOON SURGE AND A STRONG DRY SLOT JUST TO THE WEST
OF THAT. THIS WILL MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE ON WHO MIGHT SEE SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE MONSOON SURGE GETS AN EXTRA BOOST FROM
ONE...POSSIBLY TWO TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WHERE
THE DRY SLOT EXISTS...THIS WILL PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSTANT
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND VERY DRY AIR WHICH IS CERTAINLY NOT GOOD FOR
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE LATEST GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE SHOWING
THIS MOISTURE SURGE MOVING THROUGH UTAH AND INTO EASTERN IDAHO
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. BEYOND THAT...THEY BOTH TRY TO
BRING THE DRY SLOT INTO IDAHO AND DEPICT FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND WEST FROM THERE. THIS WOULD KEEP SOME MOISTURE AND
STORM POTENTIAL OVER EASTERN AREAS. LIKE WE SAID BEFORE...THIS HAS
BEEN CHANGING QUITE A BIT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PICTURE IS STILL SAYING
WHEREVER THE MONSOON SURGE ENDS UP THOSE FOLKS WILL MAY GET PLENTY
OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY TOO MUCH AND TO THE WEST OF THAT IT WILL BE
VERY DRY AND BREEZY. STAY TUNED AS THIS MAY A PATTERN THAT STAYS
WITH US INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND COULD IMPACT JUST ABOUT
EVERYONE'S PLANS.  KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. CURRENTLY
HAVE VCTS AT MOST SITES AND ANTICIPATE GUSTY WINDS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO SMOKE ARE POSSIBLE AT
KSUN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS NEAR MVFR MINIMUMS. EP/DV

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING WITH COVERAGE INCREASING TO SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON. RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ZONES 475 476 410 413 AND 427 FOR
NOON TO 10 PM IN ANTICIPATION OF THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AWAY
FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND SATURDAY OF 20 MPH IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND 30 MPH AT RIDGETOPS. UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK AS MONSOON MOISTURE STICKS AROUND.
MODELS CURRENTLY HAVING UNCERTAINTY RUN TO RUN SO EXACT IMPACTS AND
TIMING ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT. EP/DV

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING
IDZ410-413-427-475-476.

&&