Alert archive / New Jersey / Winter Weather Advisories in 2013

Winter Weather Advisory 2, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

January 17, 2013Atlantic County, Cape May County, Cumberland County, New Jersey; Kent County, Sussex County, Delaware; Caroline County, Queen Anne's County, Talbot County, Maryland

NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued this winter weather advisory at Jan 17, 2013, 3:39 AM EST for Atlantic County, Cape May County, Cumberland County, New Jersey; Kent County, Sussex County, Delaware; Caroline County, Queen Anne's County, Talbot County, Maryland. It took effect at Jan 17, 2013, 2:00 PM EST. It was in force for 11 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jan 17, 2013, 3:39 AM EST (08:39 UTC)
In effect from
Jan 17, 2013, 2:00 PM EST
Expired
Jan 18, 2013, 12:30 AM EST
In force
11 hr
Issued by
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Counties Kent County, DE, Sussex County, DE, Caroline County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Atlantic County, NJ, Cape May County, NJ, Cumberland County, NJ

The radar

The Dover AFB radar (KDOX), 24 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Wallops Is Stn, VA (KWAL), launched 00:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 123 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Wallops Is Stn, VA at 00:00Z on 2013-01-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Wallops Is Stn, VA at 00:00Z on 2013-01-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 257 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
588 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
82 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
257 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
257 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

294 
WWUS41 KPHI 170839
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
339 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

NJZ020-026-027-170945-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WS.A.0001.130117T2300Z-130118T1000Z/
OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACKSON...LONG BEACH ISLAND...
WHARTON STATE FOREST
339 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH.

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 4 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION.

$$

DEZ003-004-MDZ019-020-172200-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0001.130117T1900Z-130118T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0001.130117T1900Z-130118T0900Z/
INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GEORGETOWN...REHOBOTH BEACH...EASTON...
DENTON
339 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
4 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.

* LOCATIONS...SUSSEX COUNTY DELAWARE AND TALBOT AND CAROLINE
  COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CHANGE TO
  ALL SNOW BY THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL FALL WITH VARYING INTENSITY
  THIS EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BECOME COVERED WITH SNOW
  RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW. SOME
  ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
  BELOW FREEZING AND ANY STANDING WATER OR SLUSH WILL FREEZE
  FRIDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.  THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

$$

DEZ002-MDZ015-172200-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0001.130117T1900Z-130118T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0002.130117T1900Z-130118T0900Z/
KENT-QUEEN ANNES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CENTREVILLE
339 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
4 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 3 INCHES.

* LOCATIONS...QUEEN ANNES COUNTY IN MARYLAND AND KENT COUNTY
  DELAWARE.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CHANGE TO
  ALL SNOW BY THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL FALL WITH VARYING INTENSITY
  THIS EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BECOME COVERED WITH SNOW RESULTING
  IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW. TEMPERATURES
  WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING AND ANY STANDING WATER OR SLUSH WILL
  FREEZE BY FRIDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

NJZ021>025-172200-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0001.130117T2300Z-130118T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0002.130117T2300Z-130118T0900Z/
CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY
339 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 4 INCHES...WITH THE
  HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS CAPE MAY COUNTY.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY

* TIMING...RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN
  CHANGE TO SNOW THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL FALL WITH VARYING
  INTENSITY THIS EVENING...TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BECOME COVERED WITH SNOW
  RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW
  FREEZING FRIDAY MORNING AND ANY STANDING WATER OR SLUSH WILL
  FREEZE.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$
5 follow-up statements
132 
WWUS41 KPHI 171648
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1148 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

DEZ003-004-MDZ019-020-180100-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0001.130117T1900Z-130118T0900Z/
INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GEORGETOWN...REHOBOTH BEACH...EASTON...
DENTON
1148 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY...

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 4 INCHES...ALONG WITH
  AROUND A TRACE OF ICE. HEAVIEST SNOW FALL SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE
  SOUTHERN BORDER OF SUSSEX COUNTY DELAWARE...INLAND FROM THE
  COAST.

* LOCATIONS...SUSSEX COUNTY DELAWARE AND TALBOT AND CAROLINE 
  COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM THIS
  AFTERNOON...THEN CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL
  FALL WITH VARYING INTENSITY THIS EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
  AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BECOME COVERED WITH SNOW
  RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW.
  ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WONT
  FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. THIS COULD RESULT
  IN SOME HARDENING OF THE SLUSH AS IT FREEZES AROUND 6 AM FRIDAY.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...BRIEFLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE IN HEAVY WET
  SNOW THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.  THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

$$

DEZ002-MDZ015-180100-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0002.130117T1900Z-130118T0900Z/
KENT-QUEEN ANNES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CENTREVILLE
1148 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AROUND AN INCH OR 2...ALONG
  WITH AROUND A TRACE OF ICE.

* LOCATIONS...QUEEN ANNES COUNTY IN MARYLAND AND KENT COUNTY 
  DELAWARE.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
  CHANGE TO ALL SNOW THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL FALL WITH VARYING
  INTENSITY THIS EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BECOME COVERED WITH SNOW
  RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW.
  TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WONT FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL 4 OR 5 AM
  FRIDAY BUT ANY STANDING WATER OR SLUSH WILL FREEZE AT THAT TIME.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...BRIEFLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE IN SNOW THIS 
  EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

NJZ021>025-180100-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0002.130117T2300Z-130118T0900Z/
CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY
1148 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY...

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 1 INCH...ALONG WITH 
  AROUND A TRACE OF ICE.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY

* TIMING...RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW BETWEEN 5 PM AND 8 PM...THEN
  CHANGE TO SNOW THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL FALL WITH VARYING
  INTENSITY THIS EVENING...TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BECOME COVERED WITH SNOW 
  RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 
  BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY MORNING AND ANY STANDING WATER OR SLUSH 
  WILL FREEZE.

* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...BRIEFLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE IN A SHORT
  PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$


DRAG
934 
WWUS41 KPHI 172032
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
332 PM EST THU JAN 17 2013

DEZ003-004-MDZ019-020-180445-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130118T0900Z/
INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GEORGETOWN...REHOBOTH BEACH...EASTON...
DENTON
332 PM EST THU JAN 17 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY...

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 5 INCHES.

* LOCATIONS...SUSSEX COUNTY DELAWARE AND TALBOT AND CAROLINE 
  COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

* TIMING...RAIN AND OCCASIONAL SLEET WILL START MIXING WITH SNOW
  LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CHANGE TO ALL SNOW THIS EVENING.
  SNOW WILL FALL WITH VARYING INTENSITY THIS EVENING...BEFORE
  TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BECOME COVERED WITH SNOW
  RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW.
  ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WONT
  FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. THIS COULD RESULT
  IN SOME HARDENING OF THE SLUSH AS IT FREEZES TOWARD MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.  THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

$$

DEZ002-MDZ015-180445-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-130118T0900Z/
KENT-QUEEN ANNES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CENTREVILLE
332 PM EST THU JAN 17 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. 

* LOCATIONS...QUEEN ANNES COUNTY IN MARYLAND AND KENT COUNTY 
  DELAWARE.

* TIMING...RAIN AND OCCASIONAL SLEET WILL MIX WITH SNOW LATE THIS
  AFTERNOON...THEN CHANGE TO ALL SNOW THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL FALL
  WITH VARYING INTENSITY THIS EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER
  MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BECOME COVERED WITH SNOW
  RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW.
  TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WONT FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL EARLY
  FRIDAY BUT ANY STANDING WATER OR SLUSH WILL FREEZE AT THAT TIME.

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN ONE MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

NJZ021>025-180445-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0002.130117T2300Z-130118T0900Z/
CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY
332 PM EST THU JAN 17 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 4 INCHES. 

* LOCATIONS...CUMBERLAND, ATLANTIC AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES.

* TIMING...RAIN AND SLEET WILL MIX WITH SNOW BY EARLY THIS EVENING
  THEN CHANGE TO SNOW DURING THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL FALL WITH
  VARYING INTENSITY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...TAPERING OFF AFTER
  MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BECOME COVERED WITH SNOW 
  RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 
  BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY MORNING AND ANY STANDING WATER OR SLUSH 
  WILL FREEZE.

* WINDS...WEST AROUND 10 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...DOWN TO AROUND ONE QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$
191 
WWUS41 KPHI 172313
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
613 PM EST THU JAN 17 2013

DEZ003-004-MDZ019-020-180900-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130118T0900Z/
INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GEORGETOWN...REHOBOTH BEACH...EASTON...
DENTON
613 PM EST THU JAN 17 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY...

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES.

* LOCATIONS...SUSSEX COUNTY DELAWARE AND TALBOT AND CAROLINE 
  COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

* TIMING...RAIN AND OCCASIONAL SLEET WILL START MIXING WITH AND
  CHANGING TO SNOW. SNOW WILL FALL WITH VARYING INTENSITY...BEFORE
  TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BECOME COVERED WITH SNOW 
  RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW. 
  ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES PROBABLY 
  WONT FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. THIS COULD 
  RESULT IN SOME HARDENING OF THE SLUSH AS IT FREEZES TOWARD 
  MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.  THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

$$

DEZ002-MDZ015-180900-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-130118T0900Z/
KENT-QUEEN ANNES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CENTREVILLE
613 PM EST THU JAN 17 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

* LOCATIONS...QUEEN ANNES COUNTY IN MARYLAND AND KENT COUNTY 
  DELAWARE.

* TIMING...RAIN AND OCCASIONAL SLEET WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO
  SNOW. SNOW WILL FALL WITH VARYING INTENSITY...BEFORE TAPERING
  OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BECOME COVERED WITH SNOW 
  RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW. 
  TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WONT FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL EARLY 
  FRIDAY BUT ANY STANDING WATER OR SLUSH WILL FREEZE AT THAT 
  TIME.

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN ONE MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

NJZ021>025-180900-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-130118T0900Z/
CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY
613 PM EST THU JAN 17 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.

* LOCATIONS...CUMBERLAND... ATLANTIC AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES.

* TIMING...RAIN AND SLEET WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW. SNOW
  WILL FALL WITH VARYING INTENSITY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN
  TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BECOME COVERED WITH SNOW 
  RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 
  BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY MORNING AND ANY STANDING WATER OR SLUSH 
  WILL FREEZE.

* WINDS...WEST AROUND 10 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...DOWN TO AROUND ONE QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$
199 
WWUS41 KPHI 180231
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
931 PM EST THU JAN 17 2013

DEZ003-004-MDZ019-020-180900-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130118T0900Z/
/O.EXA.KPHI.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-130118T0900Z/
INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GEORGETOWN...REHOBOTH BEACH...EASTON...
DENTON
931 PM EST THU JAN 17 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY.
THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES, WITH POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE
  IN EXTREME SOUTHERN SUSSEX COUNTY.

* LOCATIONS...TALBOT AND CAROLINE COUNTIES IN MARYLAND AND SUSSEX
  COUNTY DELAWARE.

* TIMING...RAIN AND OCCASIONAL SLEET WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO 
  SNOW. SNOW WILL FALL WITH VARYING INTENSITY...BEFORE TAPERING 
  OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BECOME COVERED WITH SNOW
  RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE A HEAVY WET SNOW
  MAKING SHOVELING STRENUOUS. 

* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

DEZ002-MDZ015-180900-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-130118T0900Z/
KENT-QUEEN ANNES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CENTREVILLE
931 PM EST THU JAN 17 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED.

* LOCATIONS...QUEEN ANNES COUNTY IN MARYLAND AND KENT COUNTY 
  DELAWARE.

* TIMING...RAIN AND OCCASIONAL SLEET WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO 
  SNOW. SNOW WILL FALL WITH VARYING INTENSITY...BEFORE TAPERING 
  OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BECOME COVERED WITH SNOW
  RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE A HEAVY WET SNOW
  MAKING SHOVELING STRENUOUS. 

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

NJZ021>025-180900-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-130118T0900Z/
CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY
931 PM EST THU JAN 17 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES.

* LOCATIONS...CUMBERLAND... ATLANTIC AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES.

* TIMING...RAIN AND SLEET WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW. SNOW 
  WILL FALL WITH VARYING INTENSITY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...
  THEN TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BECOME COVERED WITH SNOW 
  RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 
  BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY MORNING AND ANY STANDING WATER OR SLUSH 
  WILL FREEZE.

* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$
520 
WWUS41 KPHI 180530
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1230 AM EST FRI JAN 18 2013

DEZ002>004-MDZ015-019-020-NJZ021>025-180630-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-130118T0900Z/
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...REHOBOTH BEACH...
CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY
1230 AM EST FRI JAN 18 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS DIMINISHING.
THUS...THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter weather advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter weather advisory went out at Jan 17, 12:55 AM EST, 2 hours 44 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 17, 12:55 AM EST, 2 hours 44 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1255 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS LATE
THURSDAY AND PASS TO OUR EAST THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING WINTRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY, PULLING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEMS COULD AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COLD AIR MOVING
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AN AREA OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THE COLUMN IS WARM...AS
EVIDENCED BY THE SOUNDINGS AT KIAD AND KWAL...SO PRECIPITATION TYPE
IS NOT AN ISSUE. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE
COVERAGE...BUT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY...THE RAIN
AREA SHOULD BREAK UP AND SINK SOUTH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FURTHER NORTH...THE STRATUS HAS EXITED...WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS IN THEIR PLACE. PATCHY FOG IS FORMING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE...AND FOR NOW IT WAS NOT ADDED TO THE
FORECAST FOR EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED
TO FIT TRENDS...BUT OVERALL THE LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK IN LINE.

OTHERWISE..LOOKING AT THE 00Z SOUNDINGS AND WHAT THE MODELS HAD FOR
THEIR 6 HR AND 12 HR PROJECTIONS, THE 500MB LOW IN EASTERN TEXAS
IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER. THE HEIGHT FIELDS EAST OF IT ARE NOT VERIFYING
AS STRONG, LESS OF A NEGATIVE TILT LOOK. IRONICALLY THE NAM
INITIALIZATION LOOKED POORER THAN ITS 12HR FCST IN THIS AREA, BUT
THEN CORRECTED TOWARD THIS IDEA (LESS RIDGING EAST) IN ITS FIRST
12 TO 24 HOURS. THE 500MB TEMPS NEAR THE CORE WERE ALSO SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN PROGGED. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE 500MB LOW, THE HEIGHT
FIELDS WERE FORECAST PRETTY WELL. AT 850MB THE GFS FORECAST
VERIFIED THE BEST, BUT WAS ON AVERAGE ABOUT 1C TOO COLD IN THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. THE 12KM WRF VERIFIED THE BEST WITH THE
925MB FIELDS, THERMALLY ITS MORE WEST TO EAST THAN NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST AND WE WERE SEEING THIS CHANGE IN THE RADAR ECHOES. DOWN
AT THE SFC, THE 12KM WRF VERIFIED THE BEST WITH THE SFC LOW AND
THE ECMWF HAD THE BEST FIT TO THE ACTUAL PRECIPITATION. THE UPSHOT
WE SUSPECT (OR PUTTING BOTH FEET IN OUR MOUTH) WITH THE 00Z MODEL
SUITE, THERE SHOULD BE A STATUS QUO TO SLIGHTLY WEAKER, (SOUTH),
SOLUTION TO THIS SYSTEM. THE 18Z WRF- NMMB WAS WAY WAY WAY SOUTH
AND THE PCPN FIELD WITH THE 00Z RUN HAS EDGED FARTHER NORTH. THE
OTHER FACTOR TOO IS THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER TREND IN THE OVERALL MODEL
SOLUTIONS. FOR THE REISSUED WSW WE ARE GOING TO EMPHASIZE THE THU
EVENING AS THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST SNOW SIMILAR TO THE TIMING OF
THE PASSAGE OF THE 700MB TROWAL ON THE 18Z GFS.&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THU AFTN AND NIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW TO
FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS IS A CLOSE MATCH THE 16Z HPC
INTERNAL SNOW PREDICTIONS USING MULTIPLE TOOLS. IN ADDITION...09Z
SREF WHILE BEING BIASED HIGH BY A COUPLE OF MEMBERS PERFORMED PRETTY
WELL FOR LAST NIGHTS EVENT...ESPECIALLY IF YOU ADJUST THE PTYPE
USING VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILES.

THURSDAY...CHILLY RAIN SHOULD REDEVELOP...CERTAINLY IN THE AFTN.

ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES STILL HAVE TO DISSIPATE THE WANING ABOVE
FREEZING LAYER IN THE 7000 TO 10000 FT LAYER /750MB/. THIS IS
CONFIRMED BY THE 12Z NAM MAX WBZ IN THE 0-6KM LAYER WHICH IS ABOVE
FREEZING ON BOTH THE LATEST AVBL GFS/NAM MODELS THRU ABOUT 21Z.
HOWEVER... THEREAFTER...VERY LATE IN THE DAY UVM IN THE IDEAL
DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE BECOMES INTERESTING AND WE COULD SEE A VERY
QUICK CHANGE FROM MDT RAIN TO MODERATE SNOW IN PTNS OF MDS E SHORE
INTO SRN DE LATE.

PRESUMING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...THE WET SNOW WILL CLING TO
BRANCHES AND WIRES IN A LIGHT WIND NEAR 33F ENVIRONMENT WITH
SLIPPERY SLUSHY TRAVEL DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY.

WE SEE THE 18Z NAM IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. THAT STATES THE UNCERTAINTY
AND SO ITS A WATCH THAT MAY END UP WITHOUT ANY DECENT SNOW.  WATCHES
ARE JUST THAT... A CALL TO ATTENTION BUT NOT A GUARANTEE.  OTHERWISE
IF THE WATCH IS A GUARANTEE...WE WOULD WARN.  IN THIS
CASE...UNCERTAINTY!

MOS TEMPS WERE MODIFIED DOWNWARD IN THE AFTN PCPN OVER DE/MD (WET
BULBING).  OTRW...PRIOR 4 AM FCST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS WERE VERY
CLOSE TO OUR EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BRIEF COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED EARLY THE EXTENDED, WITH A BRIEF WARM
PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING THURSDAY
EVENING. WHATEVER PRECIPITATION THAT BEGINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. ONCE THE TRANSITION OCCURS, IT
SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW AS THE AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. ANY SNOW THAT HAD A HARD TIME ACCUMULATING
DURING THE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACCUMULATING DURING THIS
TIME. FOR NOW, THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL NEW JERSEY AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN DELMARVA. SNOWFALL COULD REACH THE DELAWARE
VALLEY/I-95 CORRIDOR, BUT NORTH OF THAT, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH
SINCE THERE COULD BE A SHARP CUTOFF LINE. THE AREAS ALONG THE
DELAWARE VALLEY/I-95 CORRIDOR ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MORE THAN A
COATING TO AN INCH. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL NEW
JERSEY/CENTRAL SOUTHERN DELMARVA WE COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM 2-6
INCHES. THE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE PRODUCING THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AT A FAIR PACE, SO IT WILL NOT BE AROUND
ALL NIGHT LONG. THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AROUND MIDNIGHT, AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

FRIDAY SHOULD END UP BEING A FAIRLY DECENT DAY, BUT COOL AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. AS WE
MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND, A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
PLACE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR EAST AND A RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY, BUT BY SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY DRY, ALTHOUGH OUR NORTHWEST AREAS COULD SEE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES.

THEN COLD AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA AS AN ARCTIC TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL AT LEAST 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EAST, SEVERAL SHORT WAVES/VORT MAXES COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS
A COUPLE OF WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS MOVE TOWARD THE AREA. WE ARE
NOT EXPECTED MUCH MOISTURE WITH ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS, BUT THEY
COULD HELP LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES EARLY NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS HAS
EXITED THE AREA...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS COULD RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AT ALL
LOCATIONS THROUGH ABOUT 1100 UTC. IN ADDITION...AN AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST MARYLAND...DELAWARE AND THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF NEW JERSEY COULD RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AT
KACY AND KMIV BEFORE DAYBREAK.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON...AND ALL
DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 5000 AND 10000 FEET
ARE EXPECTED FROM KRDG AND KPHL NORTHWARD. IN THESE AREAS...WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS COULD REACH 10 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING...THEN WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL...AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDING INTO THE
REGION COULD RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT KACY AND KMIV AFTER 2000
UTC. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH OF THESE
LOCATIONS WITH LOWER CEILINGS IN LIGHT SNOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
RIGHT NOW IS LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF A KRDG-KPHL-KMJX
LINE. NORTH WINDS COULD AVERAGE NEAR 10 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO
15 OR 20 KNOTS TOWARD 1200 UTC FRIDAY. SOUTH OF THAT LINE...THERE
WILL BE A SHARP NORTHERN EDGE TO AN AREA OF SNOW AFFECTING NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...DELAWARE AND SOUTHERNMOST NEW JERSEY. KACY AND KMIV
PROBABLY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 0000
UTC AND 0600 UTC FRIDAY...WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS...BUT RIGHT
NOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS LOW.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR. FLURRIES POSSIBLE NORTH. WINDS COULD GUST 25-30
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH THURSDAY...NO SCA. MAINLY LIGHT W TO NW WIND INCREASING TO
10 TO 15 KTS LATE THU.

OUTLOOK...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF OUR
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THE SOUTHERN DELAWARE BAY. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR EAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN, AND
WINDS COULD GUST 25-30 KNOTS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DROP BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN BY SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE HIGH BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTH AND EASTWARD WELL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY, AND WINDS COULD APPROACH
GALE FORCE FOR A PERIOD SUNDAY AHEAD AND JUST BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     NJZ020>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR MDZ015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ431-451>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/HAYES
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...HAYES/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 16, 4:04 PM EST, 11 hours 35 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
404 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105-172115-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-WESTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-
404 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ012>019-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-172115-
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-
MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-EASTERN CHESTER-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-
404 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ020>027-172115-
OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
404 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ002>004-MDZ015-019-020-172115-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
404 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-172115-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
404 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 17, 3:39 AM ESTWinter Storm WarningPHISussex18 hr

Nearby

Winter Weather Advisories in New Jersey, 2013Winter Weather Advisories in Maryland, 2013Winter Weather Advisories in Delaware, 2013Every winter weather advisory in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.