Winter Weather Advisory 13, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

797 
WWUS41 KPHI 261622
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1122 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2013

PAZ054-055-270030-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0013.130226T2100Z-130227T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0003.130226T2100Z-130227T1400Z/
CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
1122 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
9 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN|...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...THE POCONOS IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 TENTHS OF AN INCH.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES BUT UP TO 4 INCHES AT HIGHER
  ELEVATIONS.

* TIMING...PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS RAIN OR SNOW LATE THIS 
  AFTERNOON... BEFORE CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN... SNOW... AND 
  SLEET OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE 
  PRECIPITATION TO RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF SNOW... SLEET... AND FREEZING 
  RAIN WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND 
  WALKWAYS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

* WINDS...EAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

&&

$$

NJZ001-270030-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0013.130226T2100Z-130227T1400Z/
SUSSEX-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...NEWTON
1122 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...SUSSEX COUNTY NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES...2 TO 3 INCHES AT HIGHER
  ELEVATIONS.

* TIMING...PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS RAIN OR SNOW LATE THIS 
  AFTERNOON... BEFORE CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN... SNOW... AND 
  SLEET OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE 
  PRECIPITATION TO RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF SNOW... SLEET... AND FREEZING 
  RAIN WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND 
  WALKWAYS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

* WINDS...EAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

617 
WWUS41 KPHI 262015
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
315 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2013

PAZ054-055-271000-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0003.130226T2100Z-130227T1400Z/
CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
315 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...THE POCONOS IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...ONE TENTH TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES BUT UP TO AROUND 4 INCHES AT
  HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

* TIMING...PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS RAIN OR SNOW LATE THIS
  AFTERNOON...BEFORE CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN...SNOW...AND SLEET
  OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE
  PRECIPITATION TO RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF SNOW... SLEET... AND FREEZING RAIN
  WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND WALKWAYS
  TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE IF
  ICING OCCURS ON TREES AND POWER LINES.

* WINDS...EAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOW 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

&&

$$

NJZ001-271000-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0013.130226T2100Z-130227T1400Z/
SUSSEX-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...NEWTON
315 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...SUSSEX COUNTY NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES...2 TO 3 INCHES AT HIGHER
  ELEVATIONS.

* TIMING...PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS RAIN OR SNOW LATE THIS 
  AFTERNOON... BEFORE CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN... SNOW... AND 
  SLEET OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE 
  PRECIPITATION TO RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF SNOW... SLEET... AND FREEZING 
  RAIN WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND 
  WALKWAYS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

503 
WWUS41 KPHI 270655
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
155 AM EST WED FEB 27 2013

PAZ054-055-271400-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130227T1400Z/
CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
155 AM EST WED FEB 27 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...THE POCONOS IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF AN
  INCH...RESULTING IN ICE ACCRUAL FROM ONE TENTH TO ONE THIRD OF
  AN INCH.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...NO ADDITIONAL SNOW IS EXPECTED. FROM AROUND
  ONE INCH OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO UP TO 4 INCHES OVER THE
  HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE FALLEN EARLIER.

* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO RAIN BETWEEN 5
  AM AND 9 AM EST.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND WALKWAYS
  TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ARE
  POSSIBLE IF ICING OCCURS ON TREES AND POWER LINES.

* WINDS...EAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL HAS
OCCURRED AND SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCRUAL HAS OCCURRED AND CONTINUES.
THIS HAS MADE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

&&

$$

NJZ001-271400-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-130227T1400Z/
SUSSEX-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...NEWTON
155 AM EST WED FEB 27 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...SUSSEX COUNTY NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF AN
  INCH...RESULTING IN ICE ACCRUAL FROM ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN
  INCH.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...NO ADDITIONAL SNOW IS EXPECTED. FROM AROUND
  ONE INCH OVER SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO UP TO 3 INCHES
  OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE FALLEN EARLIER.

* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO RAIN BETWEEN 4
  AM AND 9 AM EST.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND WALKWAYS
  TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

205 
WWUS41 KPHI 271140
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
640 AM EST WED FEB 27 2013

PAZ054-055-271400-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130227T1400Z/
/O.EXA.KPHI.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-130227T1400Z/
CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
640 AM EST WED FEB 27 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9
AM EST THIS MORNING. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* LOCATIONS...THE POCONOS IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE OR
  LESS.

* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO RAIN
  OR DRIZZLE BY 9 AM EST.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND WALKWAYS.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

NJZ001-271400-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-130227T1400Z/
SUSSEX-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...NEWTON
640 AM EST WED FEB 27 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF SUSSEX COUNTY, NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE OR
  LESS.

* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO RAIN
  OR DRIZZLE BY 9 AM EST.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND WALKWAYS.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

290 
WWUS41 KPHI 271401
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
901 AM EST WED FEB 27 2013

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-271515-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-130227T1400Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
901 AM EST WED FEB 27 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WHICH HAS BROUGHT AN END TO FREEZING RAIN AT MOST
PLACES IN THE AREA. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME FREEZING RAIN FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...SUCH AS HIGH
POINT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN EXTENSION OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS THEREFORE BEEN
CANCELLED.


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
953 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY EASE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL REACH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
AS A SECONDARY LOW FORMS IN THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY
NIGHT. THESE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE LARGE
AND TRUNDLING SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES
WILL THEN VERY SLOWLY BUILD EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY
AND PASS EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS THAT WERE
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA HAVE DISSIPATED EARLY THIS
EVENING, EXCEPT ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE CLOUDS
WILL HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL TAKE US
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT, WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME
CIRRUS ADVANCING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK, AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

OTHERWISE, RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION GOING THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
SETTLING OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS
REMAINING LIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE
NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE, RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES TO
THE LOWER 30S IN THE DELMARVA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
EARLY TUESDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RETREATING NORTHWARD
INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY ADVANCES
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING, A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BE
ORGANIZING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH WILL INFLUENCE OUR AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY,
KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING
BY THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY, HOWEVER, THE BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCES NORTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION, WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR POSSIBLY SOME SLEET MAY OCCUR BY EARLY EVENING
AS THE PRECIPITATION ADVANCES INTO THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND FAR
NORTHWEST NJ. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE GOING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AND STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE GFS OFF
THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AND LUCKY FOR US BECAUSE THERE WERE BIG TIME
MODELING INGESTING PROBLEMS BEYOND THE WRF WITH THE 12Z MODELS.

THE MULTI-FACETED WEATHER EVENT REMAINS ON FOR LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SMACKS OF SOME SIMILARITY TO
THE LAST DECEMBER 20-21 EVENT. THE PRESSURE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN THE
PLAYERS IS ABOUT 5MB LESS AND THE FORECAST 500MB TROF IS NOT AS
DEEP, MORE ZONAL THAN MERIDIONAL. SO IF ALL GOES NEARLY TO PLAN,
WOULD EXPECT A MORE TONED DOWN VERSION OF THAT EVENT. AS FAR AS
MODEL DIAG GO, THE FORECAST 250MB JET, WE HAVE SEEN BETTER. THE
FORECAST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ARE ADEQUATE. THE
MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS PRETTY GOOD AND THE FGEN FORCING
DOES INCREASE WITH TIME FAVORING OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES (WHERE
MORE NON LIQUID EXPECTED) AS MAYBE THE PLACE WHERE MODEL QPF MAY
BE TOO LOW. THE HI RES MODELS (WRF INCLUDED) HAVE THAT CONVECTIVE
LOOK TO THEM SOUTHEAST CWA WHICH CASTS EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY AS
TO THEIR QPF OUTCOME ELSEWHERE AS WE HAVE SEEN CONVECTION CUT OFF
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES WITHOUT A NEG TILT FLOW IF THIS COMES TO
FRUITION.

WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE POCONOS, TRENDED THE
FORECAST SNOWIER. WE HAVE HELD OFF AN ISSUING ANY OTHER ADVISORIES
OR WATCHES ATTM EITHER BECAUSE OF LOW CONFIDENCE OR DUE TO THIRD
PERIOD TIMING. ITS POSSIBLE THAT EITHER OR BOTH COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES OR WIND ADVISORIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY. THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS FROM WHAT WE SAW BACKED AWAY THEIR QPF SLIGHTLY AND THUS NO
FLOOD WATCH.

THE SCENARIO FOR OUR NORTHERN CWA IS AS THE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
INCREASES, THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TREND TOWARD OR BECOME SNOW.
WHILE THE WRF-NMMB IS SNOWY, THERE WAS ENOUGH SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBER
SUPPORT (AT LEAST A THIRD) TO BRING THE CHANCES OF SNOW INTO THE
NEXT TIER SOUTHWARD. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ABOUT THE WATCH FOR
THE POCONOS, THE PARTICULARS ARE NOT AS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
VARYING DEGREE OF DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW MUCH WARM AIR (WHETHER ALOFT
OR AT THE SURFACE) CAN MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA.
WAS TEETERING AS TO WHETHER OR NOT TO INCLUDE SUSSEX NJ TOO, BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT THAT HIGH AT THIS POINT. TRENDING THE FORECAST
SNOWIER, WE NOW HAVE ABOUT A 50/50 SNOW AND ICE SPLIT IN THE
POCONOS AND LESS ELSEWHERE. A COUPLE OF SLUSHY INCHES ARE
APPEARING LIKELIER FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN SECTIONS OF BERKS, THE
LEHIGH VALLEY AND WARREN AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY NORTHWESTWARD
WITH MAYBE THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS GETTING TO WARNING
CRITERIA ON SNOW ALONE. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, IT APPEARS TO STILL
BE A SOAKING RAIN. THE WRF-NMMB IS THE ONLY MODEL SUPPORTING
THUNDER SOUTHEAST. WITHOUT CORROBORATION FROM SOME OTHER MODEL
(WHICH IT HAS NOT), ITS OFTEN NOT CORRECT AND THUNDER NOT INCLUDED.

AS FAR AS WINDS GO, THE FORECAST LLJ STRENGTH OFF THE WRF-NMMB IS
NEAR THE THRESHOLD FOR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SINCE WE APPEAR CLOSE
TO CRITERIA THRESHOLD VS DEEPLY IN PLUS BEING A THIRD PERIOD
EVENT, WE HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF. MOST LIKELY PLACES FOR AN
ADVISORY WOULD BE AROUND DELAWARE BAY AND THE REST OF THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THE FORECAST PCPN INVERSION LOOKS TOO STRONG ONCE
WE GET INLAND TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THE WRF-NMMB MOMENTUM TRANSFER
WINDS. A SLIGHT NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND WAS DEPICTED IN THE
GRIDS.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING IN THE MORNING. THE WATCH ENDING TIME
MAY BE AS MUCH FOR PRECIPITATION ENDING AS TEMPERATURES GETTING
ABOVE FREEZING. OUR CWA SHOULD BE IN A RELATIVE BREAK ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS NO DPVA IS FORECAST. THIS SHOULD GIVE TEMPS AN
OPPORTUNITY TO RECOVER.

NEXT PRECIPITATION SHOT COMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE
CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA. IF A
MORE EMPHATIC ONE CAN OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AN ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATING SNOW MIGHT OCCUR WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH THE FEATURE
WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES ARE MORE MARGINAL. IT APPEARS INTENSITY
DRIVEN AND WOULD COOL PCPN TO SNOW. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAY
BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW OUTRIGHT SOUTHEAST OR FOR SNOW TO LINGER
BEYOND WHEN ITS FALLING MOST OF THE REST OF OUR CWA.

AS THE CLOSED AND SFC LOW MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE, IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WERE KEPT FOR FRIDAY AND FOR THE WEEKEND. NO EARLY SPRING
IN THE OFFING AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION MONDAY WITH A
PERSISTENT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. A CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS IF
A COASTAL LOW CAN FORM DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES OFFSHORE. IF A COASTAL LOW DOES
DEVELOP WITH A FAVORABLE TRACK THAT MIGHT CHANGE THE GAME A BIT.
ATTM THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW PRESSURE FORMATION AND A
TRACK OFFSHORE OR NO SYSTEM TO FORM AT ALL. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE OVERALL 500 MB HEIGHT PATTERN EXPECTED. KEPT SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY, GENERATED BY THE NW FLOW ANYWAY AND PLACED POPS JUST UNDER
SLIGHT CHANCE. WENT A TOUCH UNDER HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND STAYED AWAY FROM THE MOS WHICH INCORPORATES MORE ASPECTS
OF CLIMO.  LONG RANGE TELECONNECTIONS (AO,NAO, PNA) SUGGEST A COLDER
PATTERN COMPARED TO NORMAL FOR MARCH MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
HALF OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE CLOUD COVER THAT WAS AROUND EARLY THIS EVENING HAS
MOSTLY DISSIPATED. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, BECOMING MORE EASTERLY ON
TUESDAY. EARLY TUESDAY, SOME HIGH CIRRUS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, AND BY MIDDAY, CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER. AS PRECIPITATION ADVANCES INTO THE
REGION AROUND 20Z OR 21Z TUESDAY, CEILINGS WILL BE LOWERING TOWARD
MVFR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN IFR DURING THE EVENING. FOR THE
TAF SITES PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME AS WELL, GENERALLY OUT OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION WITH
GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS. CHANCE OF LLWS. GUSTY
EAST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EXCEEDING 30 KTS, ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL
PLAIN AIRPORTS.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR. SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER
AT NORTHERN AIRPORTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE AVERAGING VFR, SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
MIGHT OCCUR AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH, ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE IT MIGHT
BE SNOW.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS IN SCT
SHOWERS THURSDAY DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS SEAS HAVE RISEN TO 5 FEET AND LATEST
WAVE WATCH INDICATES SEAS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY, BEFORE INCREASING DURING THE DAY. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
WIND GUSTS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCES TOWARD THE REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN OVER THE REGION AND OUR WATERS BY TUESDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT, AND WE THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING
BEGINNING AT 23Z TUESDAY FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY.
EASTERLY WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 KNOT RANGE ARE EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...
A GALE WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY
CONTAINED SINGLE FORECAST PERIOD EVENT WITH WINDS DROPPING TO SCA
CRITERIA BY THE END OF THE NIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER WELL NORTH.
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE SHOULD BE RESIDUAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN DUE TO THE SEAS WITH SUB
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON DELAWARE BAY.

ON THURSDAY, AN INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW MIGHT MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS. THIS MIGHT SPREAD
THROUGHOUT THE AREA WATERS COME THURSDAY NIGHT. SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD START RETURNING TO THE AREA WATERS ON
FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD BE CLOSE TO CRITERIA INTO FRIDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS RETURNING ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODEL 12Z QPF HAS BACKED AWAY SLIGHTLY ON OVERALL EVENT AMOUNTS,
NOW NEARLY ALL BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 WITHIN OUR CWA. AFTER COLLAB
WITH MARFC, TROUBLE WITH OUR GAGED STREAMS LIKELY TO START WITH
AROUND 1.75 INCH EVENT TOTALS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO 12HR HEADWATER
AND FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN OUR MOST VULNERABLE COUNTIES. THE
LATEST GEFS/NAEFS AND SREF CREEK/RIVER FCST POINT GUIDANCE HAS
NOT BUDGED AT ALL PLACING CHANCES OF MINOR FLOODING AT LESS THAN
20 PERCENT AT JUST A COUPLE OF FORECAST POINTS (BLACKWELLS,
PEMBERTON AND PINE BROOK) IN OUR CWA. THUS WHILE POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING SHOULD OCCUR, THE CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STREAM AND
CREEK FLOODING HAS NOT INCREASED. THE MODEL TREND OF SNOWIER
SOLUTION FAR NORTH DECREASES THE FLOOD CHANCES THERE AT THE
MOMENT. PLEASE LOOK FOR FURTHER UPDATES OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY IN COMBINATION WITH THE FULL MOON
MAY RESULT TIDE LEVELS REACHING MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD AROUND TUESDAY
EVENING'S HIGH TIDE. POSITIVE DEPARTURES OF 1.5 TO 2.0 FEET WILL
BE NEEDED TO CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AT THAT TIME. ATTM LOOKING
AT VARIOUS GUIDANCE AND OUR IN HOUSE PROGRAM WE MAY HAVE 1.4-1.7
FOOT DEPARTURES AT MOST LOCATIONS. THIS WILL DEPEND UPON HOW
QUICKLY THE WIND SPEEDS DECREASE AND THE SURFACE WIND DIRECTION
VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST LATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THE CHESAPEAKE AND DELAWARE
BAYS AS WELL. THE NEXT TIDAL CYCLE WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY ALSO
RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH SIMILAR DEPARTURES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ452>455. GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ450>455. GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 3 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DRAG/GIGI
NEAR TERM...KLINE/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...GAINES/GIGI
AVIATION...DRAG/GIGI/KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/KLINE/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...GIGI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GAINES/OHARA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
409 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013

PAZ054-055-262115-
CARBON-MONROE-
409 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WATCH.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ060>062-262115-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
409 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR PART OF TUESDAY
NIGHT, LASTING THE LONGEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN SUSSEX
COUNTY NEW JERSEY IN GENERAL. A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN EXISTS FOR SUSSEX COUNTY. PLEASE LOOK FOR UPDATES
OVERNIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ009-010-015-PAZ101>106-262115-
CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MERCER-
WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-
EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
409 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND IT SHOULD RESULT
IN FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND MIGHT ALSO CAUSE
FLOODING ALONG SMALLER STREAMS.

IF RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT EXCEEDS 1.75 INCHES...THEN THIS WOULD
ELEVATE THE RISK OF LARGER CREEK AND STREAM FLOODING ALONG AND
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001>004-NJZ012>014-016>027-PAZ070-071-262115-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
409 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND IT SHOULD RESULT
IN FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND MIGHT ALSO CAUSE
FLOODING ALONG SMALLER STREAMS.

IF RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT EXCEEDS 1.75 INCHES...THEN THIS WOULD
ELEVATE THE RISK OF LARGER CREEK AND STREAM FLOODING ALONG AND
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY AT THE TIME OF TUESDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE. IT MIGHT ALSO OCCUR WITH THE
WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

EASTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ450>455-262115-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
409 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-262115-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
409 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

THE PROBABILITY OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.