Small Craft Advisory 22, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

116 
WHUS71 KPHI 260249
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
949 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013

ANZ452>455-261000-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-130226T2300Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.GL.W.0009.130226T2300Z-130227T1000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
949 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...EAST 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT TUESDAY 
  EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

* SEAS...SEAS AROUND 5 FEET TONIGHT...THEN INCREASING TO 7 TO 10
  FEET ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

* TIMING...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT... MAINLY 
  FOR SEAS. GALE FORCE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS ARE EXPECTED FROM 
  TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ430-431-261000-
/O.CON.KPHI.GL.W.0009.130226T2300Z-130227T0800Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
949 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 3 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...EAST 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.

* SEAS...2 TO 4 FEET.

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 9 PM AND 2 AM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ450-451-261000-
/O.CON.KPHI.GL.W.0009.130226T2300Z-130227T1000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
949 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...EAST 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT.

* SEAS...6 TO 11 FEET.

* TIMING...GALE FORCE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS ARE EXPECTED FROM 
  TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

141 
WHUS71 KPHI 260829
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
329 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2013

ANZ452>455-262200-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-130226T2300Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.GL.W.0009.130226T2300Z-130227T1000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
329 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...EAST 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT.

* SEAS...AROUND 5 FEET IN SWELLS TODAY THEN 7 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT.

* TIMING...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY... MAINLY FOR
  SEAS. GALE FORCE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS
  EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ450-451-262200-
/O.EXA.KPHI.SC.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-130226T2300Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.GL.W.0009.130226T2300Z-130227T1000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
329 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...EAST 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.

* SEAS...AROUND 5 FEET IN SWELLS TODAY THEN 6 TO 11 FEET TONIGHT.

* TIMING...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY... MAINLY FOR
  SEAS. GALE FORCE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS EVENING
  INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ430-431-262200-
/O.CON.KPHI.GL.W.0009.130226T2300Z-130227T0800Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
329 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2013

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...EAST 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.

* SEAS...2 TO 4 FEET.

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 9 PM TONIGHT AND 2
  AM WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

180 
WHUS71 KPHI 262104
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
404 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2013

ANZ450>455-271000-
/O.CAN.KPHI.SC.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-130226T2300Z/
/O.EXT.KPHI.GL.W.0009.130226T2104Z-130227T1000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
404 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2013

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

* WINDS...EAST 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT.

* SEAS...7 TO 10 FEET.

* TIMING...GALE FORCE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS ARE EXPECTED FROM
  THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ430-431-270800-
/O.EXT.KPHI.GL.W.0009.130226T2104Z-130227T0800Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
404 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2013

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...EAST 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.

* SEAS...3 TO 5 FEET.

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 9 PM TONIGHT AND 
  2 AM WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
358 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY EASE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL REACH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
AS A SECONDARY LOW FORMS IN THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY
NIGHT. THESE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE LARGE
AND TRUNDLING SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES
WILL THEN VERY SLOWLY BUILD EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY
AND PASS EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION GOING
INTO TONIGHT, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SETTLING OFF TO
OUR NORTH AND EAST. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS REMAINING LIGHT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY
WITH TIME. SOME LATE-DAY STRATOCU ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THEN WILL TAKE US
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT, WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME
CIRRUS TO BE ADVANCING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK, AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE A
BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE, RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S IN OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE DELMARVA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
EARLY TUESDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RETREATING NORTHWARD
INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY ADVANCES
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING, A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BE
ORGANIZING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH WILL INFLUENCE OUR AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY,
KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING
BY THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY, HOWEVER, THE BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCES NORTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION, WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR POSSIBLY SOME SLEET MAY OCCUR BY EARLY EVENING
AS THE PRECIPITATION ADVANCES INTO THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND FAR
NORTHWEST NJ. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE GOING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AND STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE GFS OFF
THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AND LUCKY FOR US BECAUSE THERE WERE BIG TIME
MODELING INGESTING PROBLEMS BEYOND THE WRF WITH THE 12Z MODELS.

THE MULTI-FACETED WEATHER EVENT REMAINS ON FOR LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SMACKS OF SOME SIMILARITY TO
THE LAST DECEMBER 20-21 EVENT. THE PRESSURE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN THE
PLAYERS IS ABOUT 5MB LESS AND THE FORECAST 500MB TROF IS NOT AS
DEEP, MORE ZONAL THAN MERIDIONAL. SO IF ALL GOES NEARLY TO PLAN,
WOULD EXPECT A MORE TONED DOWN VERSION OF THAT EVENT. AS FAR AS
MODEL DIAG GO, THE FORECAST 250MB JET, WE HAVE SEEN BETTER. THE
FORECAST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ARE ADEQUATE. THE
MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS PRETTY GOOD AND THE FGEN FORCING
DOES INCREASE WITH TIME FAVORING OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES (WHERE
MORE NON LIQUID EXPECTED) AS MAYBE THE PLACE WHERE MODEL QPF MAY
BE TOO LOW. THE HI RES MODELS (WRF INCLUDED) HAVE THAT CONVECTIVE
LOOK TO THEM SOUTHEAST CWA WHICH CASTS EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY AS
TO THEIR QPF OUTCOME ELSEWHERE AS WE HAVE SEEN CONVECTION CUT OFF
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES WITHOUT A NEG TILT FLOW IF THIS COMES TO
FRUITION.

WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE POCONOS, TRENDED THE
FORECAST SNOWIER. WE HAVE HELD OFF AN ISSUING ANY OTHER ADVISORIES
OR WATCHES ATTM EITHER BECAUSE OF LOW CONFIDENCE OR DUE TO THIRD
PERIOD TIMING. ITS POSSIBLE THAT EITHER OR BOTH COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES OR WIND ADVISORIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY. THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS FROM WHAT WE SAW BACKED AWAY THEIR QPF SLIGHTLY AND THUS NO
FLOOD WATCH.

THE SCENARIO FOR OUR NORTHERN CWA IS AS THE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
INCREASES, THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TREND TOWARD OR BECOME SNOW.
WHILE THE WRF-NMMB IS SNOWY, THERE WAS ENOUGH SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBER
SUPPORT (AT LEAST A THIRD) TO BRING THE CHANCES OF SNOW INTO THE
NEXT TIER SOUTHWARD. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ABOUT THE WATCH FOR
THE POCONOS, THE PARTICULARS ARE NOT AS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
VARYING DEGREE OF DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW MUCH WARM AIR (WHETHER ALOFT
OR AT THE SURFACE) CAN MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA.
WAS TEETERING AS TO WHETHER OR NOT TO INCLUDE SUSSEX NJ TOO, BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT THAT HIGH AT THIS POINT. TRENDING THE FORECAST
SNOWIER, WE NOW HAVE ABOUT A 50/50 SNOW AND ICE SPLIT IN THE
POCONOS AND LESS ELSEWHERE. A COUPLE OF SLUSHY INCHES ARE
APPEARING LIKELIER FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN SECTIONS OF BERKS, THE
LEHIGH VALLEY AND WARREN AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY NORTHWESTWARD
WITH MAYBE THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS GETTING TO WARNING
CRITERIA ON SNOW ALONE. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, IT APPEARS TO STILL
BE A SOAKING RAIN. THE WRF-NMMB IS THE ONLY MODEL SUPPORTING
THUNDER SOUTHEAST. WITHOUT CORROBORATION FROM SOME OTHER MODEL
(WHICH IT HAS NOT), ITS OFTEN NOT CORRECT AND THUNDER NOT INCLUDED.

AS FAR AS WINDS GO, THE FORECAST LLJ STRENGTH OFF THE WRF-NMMB IS
NEAR THE THRESHOLD FOR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SINCE WE APPEAR CLOSE
TO CRITERIA THRESHOLD VS DEEPLY IN PLUS BEING A THIRD PERIOD
EVENT, WE HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF. MOST LIKELY PLACES FOR AN
ADVISORY WOULD BE AROUND DELAWARE BAY AND THE REST OF THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THE FORECAST PCPN INVERSION LOOKS TOO STRONG ONCE
WE GET INLAND TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THE WRF-NMMB MOMENTUM TRANSFER
WINDS. A SLIGHT NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND WAS DEPICTED IN THE
GRIDS.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING IN THE MORNING. THE WATCH ENDING TIME
MAY BE AS MUCH FOR PRECIPITATION ENDING AS TEMPERATURES GETTING
ABOVE FREEZING. OUR CWA SHOULD BE IN A RELATIVE BREAK ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS NO DPVA IS FORECAST. THIS SHOULD GIVE TEMPS AN
OPPORTUNITY TO RECOVER.

NEXT PRECIPITATION SHOT COMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE
CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA. IF A
MORE EMPHATIC ONE CAN OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AN ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATING SNOW MIGHT OCCUR WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH THE FEATURE
WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES ARE MORE MARGINAL. IT APPEARS INTENSITY
DRIVEN AND WOULD COOL PCPN TO SNOW. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAY
BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW OUTRIGHT SOUTHEAST OR FOR SNOW TO LINGER
BEYOND WHEN ITS FALLING MOST OF THE REST OF OUR CWA.

AS THE CLOSED AND SFC LOW MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE, IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WERE KEPT FOR FRIDAY AND FOR THE WEEKEND. NO EARLY SPRING
IN THE OFFING AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION MONDAY WITH A
PERSISTENT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. A CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS IF
A COASTAL LOW CAN FORM DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES OFFSHORE. IF A COASTAL LOW DOES
DEVELOP WITH A FAVORABLE TRACK THAT MIGHT CHANGE THE GAME A BIT.
ATTM THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW PRESSURE FORMATION AND A
TRACK OFFSHORE OR NO SYSTEM TO FORM AT ALL. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE OVERALL 500 MB HEIGHT PATTERN EXPECTED. KEPT SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY, GENERATED BY THE NW FLOW ANYWAY AND PLACED POPS JUST UNDER
SLIGHT CHANCE. WENT A TOUCH UNDER HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND STAYED AWAY FROM THE MOS WHICH INCORPORATES MORE ASPECTS
OF CLIMO.  LONG RANGE TELECONNECTIONS (AO,NAO, PNA) SUGGEST A COLDER
PATTERN COMPARED TO NORMAL FOR MARCH MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
HALF OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT LATE
DAY, A STRATOCU DECK AROUND 4,000FT REMAINED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WE ANTICIPATE THIS DECK TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS AND BE
GENERALLY OUT OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION, BECOMING MORE EASTERLY
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. EARLY TUESDAY, SOME HIGH CIRRUS WILL
BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, AND BY
MIDDAY, CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER. AS PRECIPITATION
ADVANCES INTO THE REGION AROUND 20Z OR 21Z TUESDAY, CEILINGS WILL BE
LOWERING TOWARD MVFR. FOR THE TAF SITES PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. WINDS
WILL PICK UP DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL, GENERALLY OUT OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS. CHANCE OF LLWS. GUSTY
EAST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EXCEEDING 30 KTS, ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL
PLAIN AIPRORTS.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR. SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER
AT NORTHERN AIRPORTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE AVERAGING VFR, SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
MIGHT OCCUR AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH, ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE IT MIGHT
BE SNOW.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS IN SCT
SHOWERS THURSDAY DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ON OUR WATERS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA GOING
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE REGION AND THEN SETTLES OVER THE
NORTHEAST STATES. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BE REACHING INTO THE SCA RANGE AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ADVANCES TOWARD THE REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
TIGHTEN OVER THE REGION AND OUR WATERS BY TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT,
AND WE THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING BEGINNING AT 23Z TUESDAY
FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY. EASTERLY WIND GUSTS IN THE
35 TO 40 KNOT RANGE ARE EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...
A GALE WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY
CONTAINED SINGLE FORECAST PERIOD EVENT WITH WINDS DROPPING TO SCA
CRITERIA BY THE END OF THE NIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER WELL NORTH.
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE SHOULD BE RESIDUAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN DUE TO THE SEAS WITH SUB
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON DELAWARE BAY.

ON THURSDAY, AN INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW MIGHT MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS. THIS MIGHT SPREAD
THROUGHOUT THE AREA WATERS COME THURSDAY NIGHT. SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD START RETURNING TO THE AREA WATERS ON
FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD BE CLOSE TO CRITERIA INTO FRIDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS RETURNING ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODEL 12Z QPF HAS BACKED AWAY SLIGHTLY ON OVERALL EVENT AMOUNTS,
NOW NEARLY ALL BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 WITHIN OUR CWA. AFTER COLLAB
WITH MARFC, TROUBLE WITH OUR GAGED STREAMS LIKELY TO START WITH
AROUND 1.75 INCH EVENT TOTALS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO 12HR HEADWATER
AND FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN OUR MOST VULNERABLE COUNTIES. THE
LATEST GEFS/NAEFS AND SREF CREEK/RIVER FCST POINT GUIDANCE HAS
NOT BUDGED AT ALL PLACING CHANCES OF MINOR FLOODING AT LESS THAN
20 PERCENT AT JUST A COUPLE OF FORECAST POINTS (BLACKWELLS,
PEMBERTON AND PINE BROOK) IN OUR CWA. THUS WHILE POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING SHOULD OCCUR, THE CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STREAM AND
CREEK FLOODING HAS NOT INCREASED. THE MODEL TREND OF SNOWIER
SOLUTION FAR NORTH DECREASES THE FLOOD CHANCES THERE AT THE
MOMENT. PLEASE LOOK FOR FURTHER UPDATES OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY IN COMBINATION WITH THE FULL MOON
MAY RESULT TIDE LEVELS REACHING MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD AROUND TUESDAY
EVENING'S HIGH TIDE. POSITIVE DEPARTURES OF 1.5 TO 2.0 FEET WILL
BE NEEDED TO CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AT THAT TIME. ATTM LOOKING
AT VARIOUS GUIDANCE AND OUR IN HOUSE PROGRAM WE MAY HAVE 1.4-1.7
FOOT DEPARTURES AT MOST LOCATIONS. THIS WILL DEPEND UPON HOW
QUICKLY THE WIND SPEEDS DECREASE AND THE SURFACE WIND DIRECTION
VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST LATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THE CHESAPEAKE AND DELAWARE
BAYS AS WELL. THE NEXT TIDAL CYCLE WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY ALSO
RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH SIMILAR DEPARTURES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DRAG/GIGI
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...GAINES/GIGI
AVIATION...DRAG/GIGI/KLINE
MARINE...GIGI/KLINE
HYDROLOGY...GIGI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GAINES/OHARA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
409 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013

PAZ054-055-262115-
CARBON-MONROE-
409 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WATCH.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ060>062-262115-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
409 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR PART OF TUESDAY
NIGHT, LASTING THE LONGEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN SUSSEX
COUNTY NEW JERSEY IN GENERAL. A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN EXISTS FOR SUSSEX COUNTY. PLEASE LOOK FOR UPDATES
OVERNIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ009-010-015-PAZ101>106-262115-
CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MERCER-
WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-
EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
409 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND IT SHOULD RESULT
IN FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND MIGHT ALSO CAUSE
FLOODING ALONG SMALLER STREAMS.

IF RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT EXCEEDS 1.75 INCHES...THEN THIS WOULD
ELEVATE THE RISK OF LARGER CREEK AND STREAM FLOODING ALONG AND
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001>004-NJZ012>014-016>027-PAZ070-071-262115-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
409 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND IT SHOULD RESULT
IN FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND MIGHT ALSO CAUSE
FLOODING ALONG SMALLER STREAMS.

IF RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT EXCEEDS 1.75 INCHES...THEN THIS WOULD
ELEVATE THE RISK OF LARGER CREEK AND STREAM FLOODING ALONG AND
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY AT THE TIME OF TUESDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE. IT MIGHT ALSO OCCUR WITH THE
WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

EASTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ450>455-262115-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
409 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-262115-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
409 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

THE PROBABILITY OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.