Winter Storm Watch 1, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

007 
WWUS41 KPHI 161957
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
257 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-162100-
/O.EXP.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-130116T2000Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
257 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE STEADY MIXED PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. SOME 
SPOTTIER AND MUCH  LIGHT PRECIPITATION MIGHT CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. IF TRAVELING, PLEASE BE CAUTIOUS.


$$

NJZ007-008-PAZ060>062-162100-
/O.EXP.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-130116T2000Z/
WARREN-MORRIS-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...READING...
ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON
257 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE STEADY MIXED PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. SOME 
SPOTTIER AND MUCH  LIGHT PRECIPITATION MIGHT CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. IF TRAVELING, PLEASE BE CAUTIOUS.

$$

NJZ009-PAZ105-162100-
/O.EXP.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-130116T2000Z/
HUNTERDON-UPPER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...CHALFONT...PERKASIE
257 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE STEADY MIXED PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. SOME 
SPOTTIER AND MUCH  LIGHT PRECIPITATION MIGHT CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. IF TRAVELING, PLEASE BE CAUTIOUS.

$$

DEZ002>004-MDZ015-019-020-170400-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0001.130117T1900Z-130118T1000Z/
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...REHOBOTH BEACH...
CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON
257 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE LOWER 
  EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 6 INCHES.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING...CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW
  COULD FALL HEAVILY FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR 
  EVENING.

* IMPACTS...ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BECOME COVERED WITH SNOW
  RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW
  WITHOUT MUCH WIND. SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE IF
  THE HIGHER END ACCUMULATIONS MATERIALIZE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
  BELOW FREEZING AND ANY STANDING WATER OR SLUSH WILL FREEZE SOLID
  BY FRIDAY MORNING.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

NJZ020>027-170400-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0001.130117T2300Z-130118T1000Z/
OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...
LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST
257 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 4 INCHES.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
  BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW COULD
  FALL HEAVILY FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

* IMPACTS...ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BECOME COVERED WITH SNOW
  RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW
  FREEZING THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANY STANDING WATER OR SLUSH WILL
  FREEZE SOLID.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN HEAVIER
  SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

132 
WWUS41 KPHI 170241
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
941 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013

DEZ002>004-MDZ015-019-020-171045-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0001.130117T1900Z-130118T1000Z/
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...REHOBOTH BEACH...
CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON
941 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE LOWER 
  EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 5 INCHES.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING...CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW
  COULD FALL HEAVILY FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE EVENING.

* IMPACTS...ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BECOME COVERED WITH SNOW 
  RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW 
  WITHOUT MUCH WIND. SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE IF 
  THE HIGHER END ACCUMULATIONS MATERIALIZE. TEMPERATURES WILL 
  FALL BELOW FREEZING AND ANY STANDING WATER OR SLUSH WILL 
  FREEZE SOLID BY FRIDAY MORNING.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

NJZ020>027-171045-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0001.130117T2300Z-130118T1000Z/
OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...
LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST
941 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 4 INCHES.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
  BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW COULD
  FALL HEAVILY FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE EVENING.

* IMPACTS...ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BECOME COVERED WITH SNOW 
  RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 
  BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANY STANDING WATER OR SLUSH 
  WILL FREEZE SOLID.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

294 
WWUS41 KPHI 170839
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
339 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

NJZ020-026-027-170945-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WS.A.0001.130117T2300Z-130118T1000Z/
OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACKSON...LONG BEACH ISLAND...
WHARTON STATE FOREST
339 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH.

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 4 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION.

$$

DEZ003-004-MDZ019-020-172200-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0001.130117T1900Z-130118T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0001.130117T1900Z-130118T0900Z/
INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GEORGETOWN...REHOBOTH BEACH...EASTON...
DENTON
339 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
4 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.

* LOCATIONS...SUSSEX COUNTY DELAWARE AND TALBOT AND CAROLINE
  COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CHANGE TO
  ALL SNOW BY THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL FALL WITH VARYING INTENSITY
  THIS EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BECOME COVERED WITH SNOW
  RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW. SOME
  ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
  BELOW FREEZING AND ANY STANDING WATER OR SLUSH WILL FREEZE
  FRIDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.  THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

$$

DEZ002-MDZ015-172200-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0001.130117T1900Z-130118T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0002.130117T1900Z-130118T0900Z/
KENT-QUEEN ANNES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CENTREVILLE
339 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
4 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 3 INCHES.

* LOCATIONS...QUEEN ANNES COUNTY IN MARYLAND AND KENT COUNTY
  DELAWARE.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CHANGE TO
  ALL SNOW BY THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL FALL WITH VARYING INTENSITY
  THIS EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BECOME COVERED WITH SNOW RESULTING
  IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW. TEMPERATURES
  WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING AND ANY STANDING WATER OR SLUSH WILL
  FREEZE BY FRIDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

NJZ021>025-172200-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0001.130117T2300Z-130118T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0002.130117T2300Z-130118T0900Z/
CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY
339 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 4 INCHES...WITH THE
  HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS CAPE MAY COUNTY.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY

* TIMING...RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN
  CHANGE TO SNOW THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL FALL WITH VARYING
  INTENSITY THIS EVENING...TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BECOME COVERED WITH SNOW
  RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW
  FREEZING FRIDAY MORNING AND ANY STANDING WATER OR SLUSH WILL
  FREEZE.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1023 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NOW TO THE EAST OF NEW JERSEY WILL CONTINUE MOVING
AWAY TODAY. A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TONIGHT AND PUSH OUT TO SEA BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. CENTRAL PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE HEADING EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
LATE SATURDAY...WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON MONDAY WILL REFORM NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY
WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR TO FLOW INTO OUR AREA IN
ITS WAKE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADVISORY DELETION IN SE PA OCCURRED AROUND 8-815 AM ALONG WITH A
MULTITUDE OF PRODUCT UPDATES INCLUDING SNOW AND ICE GRAPHICS TO
THE WEB AND THE WSW.

BASICALLY THE WORST OF THIS PRECIPITATION EVENT HAS OCCURRED AND
NOW ITS THE LEFTOVERS WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING TEMPS.

PNS UPDATES CONTINUE TO POST. ERH HYDROMET SNOW GRAPHIC DEPICTION
FOR THE 8 HOUR SNOW/SLEET EVENT OF 10P-6A IN OUR AREA WILL BE POSTING
ON FACEBOOK.

LOOKS ONE 2 TO 3 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF GLAZE OVERNIGHT PORTIONS OF
E PA AND N CENTRAL NJ WHERE PCPN WAS DOMINANT FREEZING RAIN.

LITTLE MIXING SO TEMPS SLOW TO RISE AND LIMITED CLEARING AT BEST
LATE TODAY.

FWIW... THE TOP DOWN TOOL LAST NIGHT PROBABLY OVERPLAYED THE SLEET.
THIS EVENT WAS EITHER MOSTLY SNOW WHERE THE ENTIRE COLUMN WAS AOB
FREEZING WITH CRYSTAL SEEDING FROM THE CIRRUS LAYER. WHERE THE ABOVE
FREEZING LAYER ALOFT PENETRATED UP TO I78... THAT AREA WAS MOSTLY
FREEZING RAIN INSTEAD OF SLEET.

HYDRO: MONITORING BUT NO SMALL STREAM FLOODING ANTICIPATED.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN SE P/ MD/DE/SNJ THEN
SHOULD QUIT PER 12Z NAM.

DRYING COULD APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...
BUT PROBABLY NOT IN TIME FOR ANY MEANINGFUL SUNSHINE. FOR THE MOST
PART...AS THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIR REMAINS IN PLACE...HIGHS WERE
GENERALLY LOWER THAN THE MOS BLEND.

TONIGHT...QUIET INTERLUDE WITH PARTIAL CLEARING NORTH WHICH MAY
PERMIT PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE LEFTOVER MOIST BL. LIGHT WIND.

IN DE/MD...AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE MOISTURE
PLUME...THE LAST OF THE RAIN WILL TAKE ITS TIME EXITING CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE. A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE RETAINED THERE FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE COLUMN REMAINS WARM IN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW...SO PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE NOT BE AN
ISSUE THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...CHILLY RAIN SHOULD REDEVELOP...CERTAINLY IN THE AFTN.

ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES STILL HAVE TO DISSIPATE THE WANING ABOVE
FREEZING LAYER IN THE 7000 TO 10000 FT LAYER /750MB/. THIS IS
CONFIRMED BY THE 12Z NAM MAX WBZ IN THE 0-6KM LAYER WHICH IS ABOVE
FREEZING ON BOTH THE LATEST AVBL GFS/NAM MODELS THRU ABOUT 21Z.
HOWEVER... THEREAFTER...VERY LATE IN THE DAY UVM IN THE IDEAL
DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE BECOMES INTERESTING AND WE COULD SEE A VERY
QUICK CHANGE FROM RAIN TO MODERATE SNOW IN PTNS OF MDS E SHORE
INTO SRN DE AROUND 5PM.  WE'LL SEE IF OTHER MODELS CONFIRM?

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES IN, WITHIN AN AREA OF VERY STRONG
MID- LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING, THE COLUMN WILL RAPIDLY COOL AND
A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY EVENING. MUCH
LIKE THE PREVIOUS EVENTS, THE FORCING ALOFT IS VERY STRONG AND
VERY VERY PROGRESSIVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT SIT LONG ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA. THOUGH IT WILL BE A QUICK
GLANCING BLOW THIS COULD BE THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF THE
SEASON FOR THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA.

FRIDAY...MAYBE SOME INVIGORATED NW FLOW AS THE CAROLINAS SHORT
WAVE HEADS SEAWARD. SEASONABLY COLD IS AN APT DESCRIPTION FOR THE
CONDITION.

SATURDAY...MILDER WITH WSW FLOW WARM ADVECTION HIGH CLOUD WHILE THE
ARCTIC WAVE TRANSITS ENEWD WELL TO OUR NORTH.

SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH POSSIBLE FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY POCONOS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.

MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD...POSSIBLY COLDEST OF THE SEASON
SO FAR...BUT THE COLD INJECTION IS PROBABLY INTERRUPTED BY EVEN
MORE VIGOROUS NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE THAT SHOULD DEVELOP LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE N ATLC COAST BY TUE MORNING.

TUESDAY...SEEMINGLY GUSTY NW WINDS AND "POTENTIALLY" BITTERLY
COLD AIR INVADING. SUB ZERO WIND CHILL IN THE POCONOS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS. IFR CIGS WITH LEFTOVER RAIN
ENDING FROM NW TO SE TODAY. CIGS POSSIBLY LIFTING TO MVFR OR VFR
LATE THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...LIFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS/S-/ZL- IN
THE POCONOS-SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. LIGHT WIND.

TONIGHT...CIGS WILL DEFINITELY LIFT TO VFR CIGS . LIGHT WIND. MAY
NEED TO THINK ABOUT PATCHY IFR FOG LATE IN LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF MIV AND ACY. RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AT MIV AND ACY. GUSTY NW
WINDS UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FLURRIES IN THE POCONOS.
GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WIND IN THE AFTERNOON...20 TO 30 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST AND THE WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA IS
ENOUGH TO ALLOW NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO REACH NEAR SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS. THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BACK OFF LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
HIGH SLIDES EAST AND THE LOW MAKES IT WAY TO A POSITION OFF THE
DELAWARE COAST.

AFTER THE SURFACE WAVE GETS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...THE WESTERLY GRADIENT INCREASES. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
INDICATING 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF WIND AT 925 MB FROM MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING SOUTH OF LITTLE EGG HARBOR. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
NOT MIX FROM THIS LEVEL. WITHOUT STRONGER PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE
OF THE SURFACE LOW...THE 925 MB PROBABLY DO NOT MIX. AT THIS
POINT...GUSTS WILL BE KEPT BELOW 25 KNOTS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH NO HEADLINES.

THE GRADIENT FLOW DOES NOT TIGHTEN ANY MORE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM
MODELS ARE SHOWING 25 TO 30 KNOTS OF WIND AT 925 MB BETWEEN 0600 AND
1200 UTC THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN OCEAN WATERS. ONCE
AGAIN...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT MIXING FROM THIS HEIGHT.
SO...ONCE AGAIN...WIND GUSTS WILL BE CAPPED AT 20 KNOTS OR SO...AND
NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND THIS TIME SNOW ACROSS
MOST OF OUR WATERS. THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING AND A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND KICKS IN.
SMALL CRAFT GUSTS LOOK LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO OUR EAST ON
SATURDAY AND WINDS VEER STRONGLY TO THE SOUTHWEST. NEXT SCA
SITUATION SEEMS TO BE SETTING UP FOR EITHER LATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASSAGE OR MUCH MORE LIKELY SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
GALE SEASON THIS 2012-2013...

TO DATE EVENTS STILL WAY BELOW  NORMAL.

2012-13 6
2011-12 12
2010-11 12
2009-10 13
2008-09 14
2007-08 9

FIRST 15 DAYS OF THE MONTH...TEMPS STILL AVERAGING 6 TO 7 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL IN OUR AREA BUT OUR FIRST COLD SNAP OF THE SEASON
WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL COLD AND WIND CHILLS 0 TO 15 BELOW IS STILL
SETTING UP FOR LATE TUE NIGHT OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ060>062-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DRAG/HEAVENER 1024
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1024
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG/HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HAYES/HEAVENER 1024
MARINE...DRAG/HAYES/HEAVENER 1024
CLIMATE...1024

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1138 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-060>062-171645-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
1138 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ009-PAZ105-171645-
HUNTERDON-UPPER BUCKS-
1138 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ010-012>019-025-PAZ070-071-101>104-106-171645-
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-COASTAL ATLANTIC-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-
EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-
1138 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SNOW LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-171645-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
1138 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ002>004-MDZ015-019-020-NJZ020>024-026-027-171645-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
1138 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WE EXPECT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THIS AREA IN OUR 330
PM FORECAST. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ALONG
MARYLAND'S EASTERN SHORE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
DELAWARE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TO SNOW IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY
THURSDAY EVENING. A 2 TO 6 INCH ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BY THE
TIME THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION ENDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE SNOW...IF IT OCCURS...WILL BE WET AND CLING TO TREES AND
WIRES AND MAKE FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR FREEZING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

..UPDATED FOR THE ADVISORY IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND THE POSSIBLE
WATCH IN THE SOUTH LATE THURSDAY..