Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
348 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD
ARRIVE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FORMING ALONG IT. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
NORTHEAST THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WELL AHEAD OF THE SLOW APPROACHING COLD FRONT,
TO OUR NORTHWEST, HAS/IS TOUCHING OFF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED CONVECTION. FOR THE MOST PART THIS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS
NOT PROVIDING A LOT OF LIFT TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BUT
SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DO FORM ARE TAPPING INTO A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND FORMING STRONGER UPDRAFTS. DID NOT ADD
ENHANCED WORDING TO THE GRIDS GIVEN THE SPATIAL COVERAGE IS LOW BUT
SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG, POSSIBLY
DAMAGING WINDS. HAIL LOOKS LESS LIKELY WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL
AROUND 14KFT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND WITH THE DRIER SUB-CLOUD
LAYER.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
AND THESE STORMS SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT
BEGINS TO LOSE SOME STEAM AS IT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW. DECIDED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR THIS EVENING AND
A PART OF THE LATE NIGHT JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE WITH THIS SECOND BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
MORNING WITH LESS CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS. A BASIC
BLEND OF THE MET/MAV WAS USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG ACROSS THE REGION
TOMORROW AND AGAIN TOUCH OFF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS BY
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH HELPS WITH LARGER SCALE LIFT IN A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...MORE CLOUD COVER TOMORROW THAN
TODAY. STILL NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN
BE REALIZED TOMORROW.

THE FLOW ALOFT, WHICH ONCE WAS STRONG, CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ON
TUESDAY SO ANY STORMS THAT DO INITIATE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALLOWING FOR A MUCH SLOWER STORM MOTION. PWATS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
HIGH SO ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE A HEAVY DOWNPOUR IN A
SHORT TIME PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID-80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TIME PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKING TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA. COLD FRONTAL MOVEMENT STILL LOOKS SLOWER THAN
IT DID SEVERAL DAYS AGO, SO RETAINED THE CHANCE POPS FOR
BOTH TUE NIGHT AND WED, WITH THE HIGHER POPS ON WEDNESDAY CLOSER
TO THE COAST. LOOKED AT BLEND OF MAV/MET ON TUE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
FOR TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS.

WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH ON SUNDAY BRINGS NEXT POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION AND BOTH TEMPS AND POPS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS EVENING - TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. WILL CONTINUE WITH OUR LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND IS INITIATING SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. DECIDED IT WOULD BE BEST, GIVEN THE
CURRENT WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO PLACE -TSRA TEMPO GROUPS IN FOR
A COUPLE HOURS EARLY IN THE CYCLE. BEHIND THIS INITIAL LINE THE AIR
LOOKS TOO DRY TO CONTINUE WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SO THERE LOOKS TO
BE A DECENT LULL BETWEEN PRECIPITATION EVENTS.

ANOTHER AREA WE ARE WATCHING IS A COLD FRONT PRESSING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ERUPTING ALONG THIS LINE AS WE SPEAK AND IF THEY WERE TO HOLD
TOGETHER THEY WOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT RDG/ABE BY LATE THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ON THESE SHOWERS/STORMS MAKING IT INTO OUR
TERMINALS TONIGHT SO THEY WERE HELD OUT FOR THE MOMENT.

TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLY EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH FOG ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF OUR TERMINALS, THEN VFR. THE LIGHT VARIABLE/CALM WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP BY LATE MORNING AND BE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
OUR AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE AT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR/IFR LATE DUE TO SOME FOG.

WEDNESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING, OTHERWISE
VFR.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST ACROSS OUR WATERS TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL NEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW WHILE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO RAISE WINDS OR SEAS SIGNIFICANTLY
BUT WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY BACK TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
RIGHT NOW WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT SCA CONDITIONS TO OCCUR THROUGH
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE NORTHEAST FETCH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WILL BRING SEAS UP TO THE 4
FOOT RANGE, SO THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WINDS
AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
355 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>023-027-
PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106-182000-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
355 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONALLY SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-182000-
DELAWARE BEACHES-EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
355 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONALLY SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-182000-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
355 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SZATKOWSKI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
510 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LONDON GROVE TWP        39.82N  75.81W
06/17/2013                   CHESTER            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWNED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1300130

PO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
514 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

DEZ001-NJZ016-017-PAZ070-172215-
DELAWARE PA-GLOUCESTER NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-SALEM NJ-
514 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL GLOUCESTER...NORTHERN
NEW CASTLE...NORTHERN SALEM AND SOUTHWESTERN DELAWARE COUNTIES...

AT 511 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR TALLEYVILLE...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR BELLEFONTE AROUND 520 PM...CLAYMONT
AROUND 530 PM...BECKETT AROUND 550 PM...WOODSTOWN AROUND 600 PM...
MULLICA HILL AROUND 610 PM AND PITMAN AROUND 620 PM.

LAT...LON 3982 7567 3984 7560 3987 7559 3973 7502
      3950 7510 3954 7521 3956 7524 3955 7525
      3965 7555 3969 7552 3968 7554 3965 7556
      3970 7573

NIERENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
522 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     HAIL             HOLLYVILLE              38.67N  75.24W
06/17/2013  E0.25 INCH       SUSSEX             DE   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1300131

BUNKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
526 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     HAIL             TALLEYVILLE             39.81N  75.55W
06/17/2013  E0.25 INCH       NEW CASTLE         DE   PUBLIC

&&

CORRECTED COUNTY/STATE...LOCATION

EVENT NUMBER PHI1300131

BUNKER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
548 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

NJZ013-014-172245-
EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
548 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN MONMOUTH COUNTY...

AT 547 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR TINTON FALLS...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR SHREWSBURY AROUND 550 PM...WANAMASSA AROUND
600 PM AND DEAL AROUND 610 PM.

LAT...LON 4028 7397 4020 7400 4018 7399 4014 7401
      4014 7402 4018 7429 4036 7422 4035 7396

NIERENBERG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
555 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ016-021-172300-
CECIL MD-CUMBERLAND NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-SALEM NJ-
555 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL NEW CASTLE...
NORTHEASTERN CECIL...NORTHWESTERN CUMBERLAND AND WESTERN SALEM
COUNTIES...

AT 551 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR PLEASANT HILL...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN WILL CAUSE RAPID
RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR GLASGOW
AROUND 610 PM...BEAR AROUND 620 PM...DELAWARE CITY AROUND 630 PM...
PORT PENN AROUND 640 PM...HANCOCKS BRIDGE AROUND 650 PM AND QUINTON
AROUND 700 PM.

LAT...LON 3972 7587 3972 7578 3977 7574 3969 7552
      3962 7560 3959 7559 3969 7551 3959 7523
      3937 7540 3939 7544 3943 7547 3946 7555
      3957 7552 3959 7555 3951 7555 3947 7558
      3942 7553 3965 7604

NIERENBERG