Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
355 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ITS ATTACHED FRONTS WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA AND
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NJ. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH TONIGHT.

WITH THE SOUTHERN ZONES IN THE SOUPY AIRMASS (DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S AND THE CLOUDS THINNING, THE LOW LEVELS HAVE
DESTABILIZED. COUPLE THIS WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL LOW AND THE
ASSOCIATED SHEAR, A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 10 PM.

THE OTHER ISSUE THIS EVENING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. A
HANDFUL OF ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WERE ISSUED EARLIER TODAY AND
THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS HIGH,
NEAR 2.00". RAIN RATES EARLIER TODAY EXCEEDED FOUR INCHES PER HOUR.
OUR PNS SHOWS WHAT KIND OF RAIN IS FALLING TODAY. SOME OF THE
ENTRIES OCCURRED IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS
EXTENDED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

POPS DECREASE TOWARD MORNING.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 60S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY THE MID-LEVEL TROF AS WELL AS A SURFACE TROF. EVEN
THE MAIN COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE TO OUR NORTH, SOME THUNDERSTORMS
COULD FIRE. WE'RE IN THE SPC'S "SEE TEXT" FOR TOMORROW.

SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE 80S FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR EASTWARD, EXCEPT RIGHT AT THE COAST.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AND WILL
BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONTS AFFECTING OUR REGION DURING THE
NEAR/SHORT TERM PARTS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE POPS WILL DECREASE FOR THAT PERIOD.
WE WILL ALSO CARRY THE LOWER POPS INTO WED...BUT WE CANNOT WRITE A
TOTALLY DRY FCST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA. THERE WILL
STILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND AND ANY DAYTIME HEATING WED MAY
SPARK SOME SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TUE NIGHT AND WED WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE.

THE FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION TUE/WED WILL REMAIN THERE
WED NIGHT AND THEN A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG IT
THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE
REGION THEN.  POPS FOR THU WILL BE IN THE CHC RANGE NORTH/EAST AND
BE INCREASED INTO THE LOW LIKELY RANGE SOUTH/WEST. THIS LINES UP
REASONABLY WELL WITH THE NEARBY FCST OFFICES. DECREASING POPS FOR
FRI WITH ONLY A CHC FOR A SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THU/FRI WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS EXPECTED.
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S (SOUTH) AND
MID TO UPPER 50S (NORTH).

A DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES SETTLES ACROSS OUR AREA AND REMAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY. WE WILL WRITE A DRY FCST FOR NOW...AND HOLD OFF THE NEXT CHC
FOR SHOWERS UNTIL SUN NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A BIT THIS
WEEKEND AND BE CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY SPEAKING, MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL PLAY TUG OF WAR
INTO THE EVENING. AS THE WARM FRONT DRIFTS NORTH TONIGHT AND ALL THE
TERMINALS GET INTO THE WARM AND MOIST SECTOR, LOW CEILINGS ARE
FORECAST. IFR AND LIFR SHOULD BE THE RULE.

AFTER THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSES TOMORROW MORNING, VFR WILL
RETURN (EXCEPT MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS)

TORNADO WATCH...THE KPHL TERMINALS SOUTH ARE UNDER A TORNADO WATCH.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INSERTED IN THE TAFS ALONG WITH STRONGER
WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT THRU THURSDAY MORNING...MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SOME FOG
DURING TUE AND WED NIGHTS.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THRU FRI...MVFR OR IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN
SHOWERS/TSTMS.
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...MOSTLY VFR. FOG POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND THROUGH MOST, IF NOT
ALL THE WATERS, TONIGHT.

THE LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OCEAN WATERS HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO HIT
5 OR 6 FEET. WINDS SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 25 KT.

OUTLOOK...
MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THURSDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH AND BRING LOW-END SCA
WINDS/SEAS TO THE OCEAN AREAS LATER THU INTO FRIDAY. A FEW SCA
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER DEL BAY TOO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TROPICAL DOWNPOURS AND VERY WET SOILS ACROSS THE REGION LEAD TO A
CONTINUATION OF THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THE LATEST WARNING CAN BE OBTAINED VIA MEDIA OUTLETS AND OUR
WEBPAGE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-
     071-101>106.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...O'HARA
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...O'HARA
AVIATION...KRUZDLO/O'HARA
MARINE...KRUZDLO/O'HARA
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO/O'HARA
RIP CURRENTS...O'HARA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
403 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013

NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015-020-PAZ054-055-060>062-105-106-112015-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
MERCER-OCEAN-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-UPPER BUCKS-
LOWER BUCKS-
403 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016>019-021>023-027-PAZ070-071-
101>104-112015-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
CAROLINE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-
EASTERN MONTGOMERY-
403 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...TORNADO WATCH 293 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NJZ014-026-112015-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-COASTAL OCEAN-
403 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

DEZ004-NJZ024-025-112015-
DELAWARE BEACHES-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
403 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...TORNADO WATCH 293 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   TORNADO WATCH.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

ANZ430-431-452>455-112015-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
403 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013

...TORNADO WATCH 293 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

ANZ450-451-112015-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
403 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
244 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013

DEZ003-004-101945-
DELAWARE BEACHES DE-INLAND SUSSEX DE-
244 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN SUSSEX COUNTY...

AT 241 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR PITTSVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND
FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN WILL CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR GUMBORO AROUND 300 PM...
FRANKFORD AROUND 310 PM...MILLSBORO AROUND 320 PM AND LONG NECK
AROUND 330 PM.

LAT...LON 3875 7536 3869 7510 3868 7512 3865 7511
      3864 7509 3868 7508 3867 7506 3862 7505
      3858 7507 3845 7518 3845 7547

FORECASTER: HEAVENER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
410 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013

PAZ060-101-102115-
BERKS PA-WESTERN CHESTER PA-
410 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CHESTER AND SOUTH
CENTRAL BERKS COUNTIES...

AT 405 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR CHRISTIANA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND
FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN WILL CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR PARKESBURG AROUND 420 PM...COATESVILLE
AROUND 430 PM...HONEY BROOK AROUND 440 PM...ELVERSON AROUND 450
PM...BIRDSBORO AROUND 500 PM AND CEDARVILLE AROUND 510 PM.

LAT...LON 3988 7599 3992 7600 3997 7600 4004 7594
      4011 7595 4014 7589 4019 7596 4032 7582
      4016 7557 3984 7602 3985 7603

FORECASTER: HEAVENER