Special Marine Warning 27, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
353 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES COAST FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY
TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEFORE RETREATING NORTHWARD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND REACH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. IT IS
THEN EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE REGION AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
STRONG JUNE SUN WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING HAS RESULTED IN
HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION OVER THE FCST AREA...WITH LI'S TO -10
AND SFC-BASED CAPE 3000-4000 J/KG. SFC DEWPTS HAVE REMAINED IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AS A RESULT STRONG TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE LOWER DEL VLY TO VCNTY UPPER CHES BAY...WITH MORE ACTVTY TO THE
WEST. SO FAR CNVTN IS SLOW MOVING AND NOT WELL ORGANIZED...HWVR WITH
THE VERY UNSTABLE AMS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION OF COLD
POOLS HENCE SPC HAS ISSUED WW 355 FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA VALID UNTIL 10
PM.

EXPECT THAT MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF TSTMS WILL WORK ITS WAY
EASTWARD THROUGH LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVE. IN ADDITION TO SVR WX
THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FLOODING DUE TO
SLOW MOVEMENT OF SOME STORMS. TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN
AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE LEAVING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND COOLING OVERNIGHT SOME
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED BY LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE WX PATN IN PLACE FOR TODAY WILL NOT BE CHANGING FOR TUESDAY. THE
BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN HUMID SUMMER CONDS WITH SWLY WINDS. THE
UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS PA TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW
SO TSTMS MAY BE LESS ACTIVE. HOWEVER THE AMS WILL CONT HOT AND
HUMID RESULTING IN AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY. CHC POPS ARE
MAINTAINED IN THE FCST FOR AFTN/EVE TSTMS.

HEAT INDICES TODAY HAVE REACHED THE MID/UPPER 90S IN MANY AREAS...
ALTHOUGH NEGATED IN AREAS AFFECTED BY TSTMS. SIMILAR CONDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TOMORROW...WITH HEAT INDICES NOT QUITE HIGH
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A HEAT ADVISORY ATTM. THE SITUATION WILL CONT TO
BE MONITORED AND A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEED SOMETIME LATER THIS
WEEK BEFORE THE HEAT WAVE ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE 500MB INITIALIZATION LOOKED PRETTY GOOD OFF OF BOTH THE GFS
AND WRF-NMMB. THE WRF-NMMB LOOKED BETTER AT 850MB WHILE BOTH WOULD
LOOKED OK AT 925MB. ALL THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
A SHORT WAVE TROF ON THURSDAY, BUT THEN AS THE LONG WAVE TROF
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER EASTERN NOAM, THE FRONT SHOULD STALL AND
PROLONG OUR UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE GFS RUN TODAY WAS CLOSER TO ITS
ENSEMBLE MEAN (STILL FAST THOUGH) AND ITS MODELING/HPC CONSENSUS
WAS USED AS THE FOUNDATION.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING THE TRAIL OFF IN CONVECTION FASTER
THAN TODAY WITH LESS ORGANIZATIONAL FEATURES AND THE FCST 500MB
TEMPS ABOUT 4C HIGHER THAN TODAY. STAT GUIDANCE REMAINS REASONABLE FOR
MIN TEMPS.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME CLOSE TO OUR CWA ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT REMAIN NORTH. AS SUCH THE DROP OFF IN THE WRF-NMMB
THERMAL FIELDS DOES NOT LOOK RIGHT. BASED ON THE FCST 925MB TEMPS
AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES, WE ARE LEANING MUCH CLOSER TO GFS MOS
WHICH TAKES US AT THE THRESHOLD OF HEAT RELATED HEADLINE CRITERIA.
BECAUSE OF THE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY OF THURSDAY MAX TEMPS AND HEAT
INDEX REACHING HEADLINE CRITERIA (MAKING THIS MAYBE A ONE DAY
ADVISORY EVENT), NO EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS
PACKAGE, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE MENTION IN THE HWO. AS FAR AS
CONVECTION GOES, THE FCST INSTABILITY IS NOT ON PAR WITH TODAY OR
THURSDAY AND LOOKS TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY WEST AS THE SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE FORECAST SHORT WAVES
AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT, HIGHEST POPS ARE NORTHWEST.

UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS, WITH A SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH, WE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STAT GUIDANCE ACCEPTED.

ON THURSDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FASTER WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROF. THE MODELING TREND IS FASTER, BUT THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE. THE ECMWF IS THE WEAKEST
AND SLOWEST. REGARDLESS, WE PREFER TO LEAN TOWARD CONSENSUS AND MOVE
POP CHANCES UPWARD. THE CORE OF THE HOTTEST AIR IS FORECAST TO PASS
ACROSS OUR CWA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SO THERE SHOULD BE
A DROP OFF IN MAX TEMPS BY THAT ALONE. BUT WE ARE NOT SEEING AS MUCH
AS THE LATEST GFS MOS SHOWS, ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SHOULD START THE
GREATER DOUBLE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN (NOT THAT IT
DISAPPEARS AFTER THAT). WOULD THINK MORE CLOUDINESS AND PCPN ON
FRIDAY SHOULD NEGATE ANY HEAT RELATED ISSUES BY THEN.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WE ARE EXPECTING THE STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN IN OUR VICINITY. THUS NO DAY LOOKS RAIN FREE AND THE ECMWF
RUNS REMAIN RATHER FOREBODING FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. WE SUPPOSE
THERE COULD BE A DRIER DAY AMONG THE THREE PENDING ON THE FLOW OF
IMPULSES, BUT RIGHT NOW ITS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN WHICH ONE. WITH THE
TROF ESTABLISHING ITSELF ACROSS OUR CWA, MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD
EDGE CLOSER TO NORMAL, BUT MIN TEMPS LIKELY WILL BE HELD UP BY THE
HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

BERMUDA HIGH PATN WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF FCST PERIOD AND BEYOND.
SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE...AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE DAY AND LIGHTER AT
NIGHT. AFTN/EVE TSTMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CONDS LOCALLY,
BUT OVERALL CONDS SHOULD BE VFR. SOME MVFR IS POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS LATE TONIGHT DUE TO PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS
RECEIVING RAINFALL TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...MOSTLY VFR WITH SHORT
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR IN MORNING FOG AND/OR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...MORE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
IN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS AS WELL AS MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH SWLY WINDS AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE SE US COAST.
WAVES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE
WITH WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SCT TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

OUTLOOK...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT
THE FORECAST INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW MIGHT BRING SCA CRITERIA
BASED ON SWELLS, MORE SO THAN WINDS, TO THE OCEAN WATERS LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW REMAINS LOWER THAN
AVERAGE THAT THIS WILL OCCUR AS WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE OFTEN IS TOO
BULLISH UNDER THESE REGIMES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE STAND A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF HAVING THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD
IN PHILADELPHIA. WE LOOKED BACK AT THE 10 PREVIOUS WETTEST JUNES ON
RECORD AND SAW HOW THE REST OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER WENT
FORWARD. WET BEGETTED(SP) MORE WET. GIVEN HOW WET THE GFS AND ECMWF
LOOK INTO THE START OF JULY THAT NOTION IS HOLDING. BOTH ENSUING
MONTHS AVERAGED WETTER THAN THE CURRENT NORMALS WITH EIGHT OF THE
TEN MONTHS COMBINED AVERAGING WETTER THAN NORMAL. ALL OF THE MONTHS
HAD TWO INCHES OR MORE OF RAINFALL. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES WENT,
JULY AVERAGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE CURRENT NORMAL, WHILE AUGUST
WAS VERY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT NORMAL. SIX OF THE TEN AUGUSTS WERE AS
WARM OR WARMER THAN JULY.

YEAR       JULY AVG   JULY    AUG AVG   AUGUST
              TEMP    PCPN    TEMP      PCPN

1887          80.7    7.14    74.0      2.31
1906          75.6    5.33    76.2      9.56
1928          77.3    3.60    77.2      5.47
1938          77.3    6.52    78.3      4.10
1962          72.0    2.30    72.0      6.58
1969          75.1    8.33    75.2      2.66
1973          77.9    2.39    78.7      2.03
1975          76.6    6.32    77.0      2.11
2003          78.7    2.01    78.2      3.26
2006          79.4    4.27    78.1      3.93

AVG           77.1    4.82    76.5      4.20
1981-2010 NML 78.1    4.35    76.6      3.50

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GIGI/O'HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...AMC/GIGI/O'HARA
MARINE...AMC/GIGI/O'HARA
CLIMATE...GIGI

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
322 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HAIL             SPRINGFIELD             40.04N  74.65W
06/24/2013  E0.25 INCH       BURLINGTON         NJ   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1300158

BUNKER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
323 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ013-016>020-027-242015-
CAMDEN NJ-CECIL MD-GLOUCESTER NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-SALEM NJ-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
323 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND...EXTREME NORTHERN DELAWARE...AND SOUTHWESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...

AT 320 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM CECIL COUNTY IN
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SUBURBS OF
PHILADELPHIA TO MONMOUTH COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY. THE THUNDERSTORMS
WERE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK
SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS. MOVE INDOORS WHEN A
THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS AND IT WILL CAUSE WATER
TO POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LAT...LON 4000 7412 3955 7554 3959 7555 3953 7556
      3938 7605 3952 7599 3955 7608 3972 7612
      3972 7578 3984 7562 3981 7542 3988 7515
      3997 7512 4013 7482 4013 7474 4018 7471
      4014 7459 4018 7461 4031 7437 4042 7403

IOVINO

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
353 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     LIGHTNING        RIDLEY PARK             39.88N  75.32W
06/24/2013                   DELAWARE           PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FIRES DUE TO LIGHTNING OCCURRED IN RIDLEY PARK... UPPER
            PROVIDENCE TWP.... SWARTHMORE... ASTON TWP.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1300160

BUNKER

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