Freezing Rain Advisory 3, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

194 
WWUS41 KPHI 230236
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
936 PM EST FRI FEB 22 2013

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-231000-
/O.CON.KPHI.ZR.Y.0003.130223T0300Z-130223T1700Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
936 PM EST FRI FEB 22 2013

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
SATURDAY...

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 0.10 INCHES.

* LOCATIONS...THE POCONOS INTO NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY ALONG AND 
  NORTH OF ROUTE 80.

* TIMING...SCATTERED WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND
  SLEET...WILL CONTINUE...THEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD
  OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
  CONTINUE INTO MID OR LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...ICING WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON ROADWAYS 
  AND SIDEWALKS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$

NJZ009-PAZ060>062-231000-
/O.CON.KPHI.ZR.Y.0003.130223T0300Z-130223T1500Z/
HUNTERDON-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...READING...ALLENTOWN...
BETHLEHEM...EASTON
936 PM EST FRI FEB 22 2013

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 0.05 INCHES.

* LOCATIONS...THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND BERKS COUNTY IN PENNSYLVANIA
  AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

* TIMING...MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW... SLEET
  FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN WILL CONTINUE...THEN BECOME ALL FREEZING
  RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...ICING WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON ROADWAYS 
  AND SIDEWALKS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$

NJZ010-PAZ101-103-105-231000-
/O.CON.KPHI.ZR.Y.0003.130223T0300Z-130223T1300Z/
SOMERSET-WESTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOMERVILLE...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...
COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...CHALFONT...PERKASIE
936 PM EST FRI FEB 22 2013

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...A TRACE TO A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEW 
  JERSEY.

* TIMING...MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW... SLEET
  FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN WILL CONTINUE...THEN BECOME ALL FREEZING RAIN OR
  FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...ICING WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON ROADWAYS 
  AND SIDEWALKS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$

576 
WWUS41 KPHI 230843
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
343 AM EST SAT FEB 23 2013

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-231645-
/O.CON.KPHI.ZR.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-130223T1700Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
343 AM EST SAT FEB 23 2013

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
TODAY...

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...A TRACE TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS.

* LOCATIONS...THE POCONOS INTO NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY ALONG AND 
  NORTH OF ROUTE 80.

* TIMING...A LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE
  THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

* IMPACTS...ICING WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON ROADWAYS 
  AND SIDEWALKS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$

NJZ009-PAZ060>062-231500-
/O.CON.KPHI.ZR.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-130223T1500Z/
HUNTERDON-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...READING...ALLENTOWN...
BETHLEHEM...EASTON
343 AM EST SAT FEB 23 2013

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND A TRACE.

* LOCATIONS...THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND BERKS COUNTY IN PENNSYLVANIA 
  AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

* TIMING...A LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE
  FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

* IMPACTS...ICING WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON ROADWAYS 
  AND SIDEWALKS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$

NJZ010-PAZ101-103-105-231300-
/O.CON.KPHI.ZR.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-130223T1300Z/
SOMERSET-WESTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOMERVILLE...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...
COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...CHALFONT...PERKASIE
343 AM EST SAT FEB 23 2013

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND A TRACE.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEW 
  JERSEY.

* TIMING...A LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE
  FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

* IMPACTS...ICING WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON ROADWAYS 
  AND SIDEWALKS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$

484 
WWUS41 KPHI 231137
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
637 AM EST SAT FEB 23 2013

NJZ010-PAZ101-103-105-231245-
/O.CAN.KPHI.ZR.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-130223T1300Z/
SOMERSET-WESTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOMERVILLE...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...
COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...CHALFONT...PERKASIE
637 AM EST SAT FEB 23 2013

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND THE RISK OF ANY
GLAZE HAS DIMINISHED.  

$$

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-231700-
/O.CON.KPHI.ZR.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-130223T1700Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
637 AM EST SAT FEB 23 2013

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
TODAY...

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND A TRACE.

* LOCATIONS...THE POCONOS INTO NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY ALONG AND 
  NORTH OF ROUTE 80.

* TIMING...A LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE
  THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S EXCEPT NEAR ABOVE 1000 FT IN THE
  POCONOS AND NEAR ROUTE 23 IN NORTHERN SUSSEX COUNTY.

* IMPACTS...ICING HAS CREATED HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED
  ROADS AND SIDEWALKS EARLY TODAY...ESPECIALLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$

NJZ009-PAZ060>062-231500-
/O.CON.KPHI.ZR.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-130223T1500Z/
HUNTERDON-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...READING...ALLENTOWN...
BETHLEHEM...EASTON
637 AM EST SAT FEB 23 2013

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND A TRACE.

* LOCATIONS...THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND BERKS COUNTY IN PENNSYLVANIA 
  AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

* TIMING...A LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE
  FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN A FEW HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* IMPACTS...ICING WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED
  ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS EARLY THIS SATURDAY MORNING.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$

311 
WWUS41 KPHI 231439
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
939 AM EST SAT FEB 23 2013

NJZ009-PAZ060>062-231545-
/O.CAN.KPHI.ZR.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-130223T1500Z/
HUNTERDON-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...READING...ALLENTOWN...
BETHLEHEM...EASTON
939 AM EST SAT FEB 23 2013

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE AREA, AND
THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS ENDED.

$$

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-231700-
/O.CON.KPHI.ZR.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-130223T1700Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
939 AM EST SAT FEB 23 2013

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
TODAY...

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND A TRACE.

* LOCATIONS...THE POCONOS INTO NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY ALONG AND 
  NORTH OF ROUTE 80.

* TIMING...A LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL 
  CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S, ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

* IMPACTS...ICING WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED
  ROADS AND SIDEWALKS THROUGH LATE MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER
  ELEVATIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$

715 
WWUS41 KPHI 231659
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1159 AM EST SAT FEB 23 2013

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-240100-
/O.CAN.KPHI.ZR.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-130223T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0012.130223T2300Z-130224T1200Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
1159 AM EST SAT FEB 23 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7
AM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY MAINLY FOR FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. IT
IS IN EFFECT FROM 600 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 700 AM SUNDAY.

* LOCATION...THE POCONO REGION OF PENNSYLVANIA, AS WELL AS SUSSEX
  COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...A TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ON TOP
  OF A LIGHT GLAZING OF ICE.

* TIMING...AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE
  EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING
  DRIZZLE MAY CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT BEFORE THE
  PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END EARLY ON SUNDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...MAINLY IN THE LOWER 30S TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...THE FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CREATE
  HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND WALKWAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN,
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE
PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND USE CARE IF DRIVING.

&&

$$

NJZ007-008-231800-
/O.CAN.KPHI.ZR.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-130223T1700Z/
WARREN-MORRIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN
1159 AM EST SAT FEB 23 2013

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES OF MORRIS AND WARREN.
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING IN THOSE COUNTIES.

$$

IOVINO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
928 AM EST FRI FEB 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER OUR REGION TODAY. A COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TODAY AND PUSH A
WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE
SHAPE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN HEAD OUT TO SEA
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO ENTER FROM THE WEST ONCE AGAIN. ANOTHER
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY
SPAWNING ANOTHER COASTAL LOW PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE IT
TOWARDS OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION FOR
TODAY. WE ANTICIPATE THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUD COVER AS
MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. A RELATIVELY
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW IS FORECAST AND MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES. READINGS IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN SHOULD GET NO HIGHER
THAN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S.

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO REACH OUR WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AT THE
ONSET. FOR LOCATIONS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FALL LINE, A MIX OF
LIGHT RAIN, SLEET AND SNOW IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED. THE ADVISORY FEATURES ICE...HOWEVER NOT
SOLELY DEDICATED TO ICE. THE REASONING FOR ICE...PROBABLY NO ICE
NUCLEI IN THE CLOUD (AND NO CIRRUS SEEDING) AFTER THE NW SE CIRRUS
AXIS (VA PA TO GTLKS AT 10Z) PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA BY EARLY
AFTN.

TIMING OF PCPN ONSET UNCERTAIN AND THE ADVY START TIME MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE DELAYED 4 HOURS?

MODELS ARE NOT PERFECT NOR OUR TOOLS THAT WE USE TO TRY TO MAKE A
SENSE OF THE REALITY IN THE PCPN MICRO-PHYSICS OF THE VERTICAL
PROFILE. NEVERTHELESS...WE THINK VERY LITTLE SNOW SINCE PROBABLE
TOP OF THE DEEP RH AT 00Z/23 SHOULD BE NEAR 650 MB (-6C) AND THEN
SINKS TO ABOUT 750 MB (-4C) BY 03Z. COULD BE JUST A LITTLE SLEET
OR PREDOMINANTLY A FREEZING RAIN EVENT FOR WHAT LITTLE MEASURABLE
FALLS OVERNIGHT TO THE NW OF I95. IF IT ENDS UP THAT THERE IS
CIRRUS SEEDING OVERNIGHT OR DEEPER RH INTO THE THE COLDER MID
LEVEL TEMPS THAN NOW FCST... THEN SNOW WOULD OCCUR BEYOND 03Z.

SE PA JUST WEST AND SW OF PHL INTO CECIL COUNTY MD ALONG AND NW
I95... ANY PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW-SLEET CHANGES TO LIGHT ZR THEN TO
RAIN. POSSIBLE WINTER WX ADVY. CONFIDENCE TIMING ONSET PCPN WELL
BELOW AVG. SO...WE MAY NEED TO ADD A LAYER OF WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY CLOSER TO I95 IN THE AFTN FORECAST UPDATES BUT FOR
NOW...WE ISSUED THE ADVY FURTHER WEST IN THE MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED REGION.

LEHIGH VALLEY AND NW NJ N OF I78...ANY LIGHT SNOW TO
ICE...PROBABLY BY 03Z. WINTER WX ADVY. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING PCPN
ONSET IS BELOW AVG. THERE IS A CHANCE THE SNOW BEGINS AROUND 22Z
THEN QUITS BY 02Z THEN PCPN BEGINS AGAIN AROUND MIDNIGHT AS
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON PTYPES.

REMAINDER REGION...PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY LATE AT NIGHT.

TEMPS/WINDS: BLENDED 00Z/22 NCEP MOS MOS. POPS: BLENDED THE
00Z/22 NAM/GFS MOS POPS WITH THE WETTER 21Z SREF POPS WHICH SHOULD
TAKE OUT WHAT I THINK IS A DRY BIAS IN THE GFS FOR TONIGHT. THOSE
POPS WERE THEN INCREASED TO NEAR 100 PCT IN DE/MD FOR ALMOST
CERTAIN MEASURABLE RAIN THERE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ALL EYES ARE TURNED TOWARDS THE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
CRUSHING THE MID-WEST TODAY. MODEL CLUSTERING STILL IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SLOWLY MEANDER TOWARDS THE EAST ON THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. STILL VERY GOOD CONSENSUS ON A SURFACE REFLECTION
FORMING ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE AND MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED. IT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MAKE A RIGHT TURN AND HEAD OUT TO SEA AS IT RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES FINALLY STARTING TO PHASE WITH THE NOW OPENING GREAT
LAKES MID-LEVEL LOW.

TRACK DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS ARE STILL RELATIVELY SMALL,
ABOUT 50 MILES OR SO, BUT THAT CAN MEAN A WORLD OF DIFFERENCE IN
TERMS OF P-TYPE ACROSS OUR REGION. THE COLUMN STILL NEEDS TO
MOISTEN FROM THE TOP DOWN TOMORROW AS THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR
IN THE MID-LEVELS AS DEPICTED BY THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. ALSO
THERE IS VERY LITTLE ICE IN THE COLUMN TO SUPPORT SNOW OR SLEET SO
DECIDED TO USE A MOSTLY LIQUID APPROACH WHEN CREATING THE WEATHER
GRIDS FOR SATURDAY MORNING. THIS YIELDED A DECENT AMOUNT OF
FREEZING RAIN FROM THE LEHIGH VALLEY NORTH AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HOVERING RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. BY 15Z OR SO, WE
SHOULD HAVE HAD ENOUGH WARMING IN THE LOWER LAYERS, AIDED BY THE
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH, TO CHANGE OVER TO
ALL RAIN.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS FOR
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE WAVE NEARS THE 40/70 BENCHMARK THOUGH DUE TO
THE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OPENING UP AND
MOVING EASTWARD, THEIR THERMAL PROFILES ARE A BIT DIFFERENT. THE
GFS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WHICH WOULD
KEEP LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARMER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE
WAVE...A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST AT THIS POINT. STILL COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
MID-LEVEL LOW TRAVERSING THE REGION BUT WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND THE LOSS OF ICE ALOFT WE WOULD ONLY BE ABLE TO EEK
OUT A COUPLE TENTHS ACROSS THE NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AS THE
SURFACE WAVE TO OUR EAST CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. JUST HOW THE STRONG
THE RIDGING BECOMES IS STILL QUESTIONABLE AS BOTH THE GFS AND EURO
HAVE A DIFFERENCE OF OPINIONS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE NEXT CLOSED
LOW REMAINS. EITHER WAY, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK
IN COMPARISON TO ITS PREDECESSOR. SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD
OCCUR SOMEWHERE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TRACKING TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SEEMS LIKE A WASH-RINSE-
REPEAT KIND OF DEAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR CIGS ABV 10000 FT THROUGH MIDDAY. A DECK OF SC CIGS
NEAR 2500 FT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AFTER 21Z. WIND NE BECOMING SE
AND GENERALLY UNDER 12 KTS.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR LATE WITH SNOW-SLEET-
FREEZING RAIN KABE/KRDG. CHANCE OF RAIN BRIEFLY MIXED WITH SLEET-
SNOW AT THE START KILG/KPHL/PNE/ KTTN THIS EVENING 'IF'
PRECIPITATION OCCURS PRIOR TO 05Z...BUT BECOMING RAIN NEAR OR JUST
AFTER 05Z. ANY PRECIPITATION AT KMIV AND KACY SHOULD BE ALL RAIN
AND MAINLY LATE WHERE CONDS MAY REMAIN MVFR ALL NIGHT.

WINDS E TRENDING NE LATE AND UNDER 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUB VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWER CIGS AND
PCP EXPECTED. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING NW OF
PHL. CONFIDENCE MODERATE.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
CONFIDENCE MODERATE.

TUESDAY...SUB-VFR WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PCP EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE
MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES. NNE WIND 10-15 KTS G 20 KTS THIS MORNING BECOMING
SE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. SEAS AOB 3 FT.

OUTLOOK...
THE NEXT COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY AND A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE ACROSS OUR WATERS ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
ACTIVE PERIOD OF AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
COASTAL LOW WILL AFFECT OUR WATERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055-060>062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ101-103-105.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ009-010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
408 AM EST FRI FEB 22 2013

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-230915-
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
408 AM EST FRI FEB 22 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NJZ007-008-PAZ060>062-230915-
WARREN-MORRIS-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
408 AM EST FRI FEB 22 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NJZ009-010-PAZ101-103-105-230915-
HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-WESTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-
408 AM EST FRI FEB 22 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
EST SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY POSSIBLY PROVIDING MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ012-015-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-230915-
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
EASTERN CHESTER-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-
408 AM EST FRI FEB 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY POSSIBLY PROVIDING MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

DEZ002>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ013-014-016>024-026-027-230915-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
CAROLINE-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
408 AM EST FRI FEB 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

ANZ430-431-450>455-230915-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
408 AM EST FRI FEB 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.