Coastal Flood Warning 5, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

243 
WHUS41 KPHI 100854
CFWPHI

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
454 AM EDT SUN MAR 10 2013

DEZ002>004-NJZ012>014-020>027-101600-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.W.0005.130310T1000Z-130310T1600Z/
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
454 AM EDT SUN MAR 10 2013

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT
TODAY...

* LOCATION...COASTAL AREAS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE, AS WELL AS
  AREAS ALONG DELAWARE BAY.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MODERATE FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AROUND 
  THIS MORNING'S HIGH TIDE.

* AT SANDY HOOK, NEW JERSEY (SANDY HOOK BAY) HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT
  725 AM, WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 7.5 TO 8.0 FEET ABOVE
  MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT SEASIDE HEIGHTS, NEW JERSEY (OCEANFRONT) HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT
  655 AM, WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 7.0 TO 7.5 FEET ABOVE
  MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT ATLANTIC CITY, NEW JERSEY (OCEANFRONT) HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT
  707 AM, WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 7.0 TO 7.5 FEET ABOVE
  MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT CAPE MAY, NEW JERSEY (OCEANFRONT) HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 741
  AM, WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 8.0 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER
  LOW WATER.

* AT BREAKWATER HARBOR, DELAWARE (DELAWARE BAY) HIGH TIDE OCCURS
  AT 824 AM, WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 7.0 FEET ABOVE MEAN
  LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT REHOBOTH BEACH, DELAWARE (OCEANFRONT) HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 722
  AM, WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 7.0 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER
  LOW WATER.

* HIGH TIDE ON THE BACK BAYS, ALONG DELAWARE BAY AND ALONG
  RARITAN BAY OCCURS LATER THAN THE HIGH TIDE ON THE OCEANFRONT.

* SEAS...6 TO 10 FEET ON THE OCEAN WATERS OFF THE COASTS OF NEW
  JERSEY AND DELAWARE WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 13 TO 15 SECONDS.
  WAVE HEIGHTS WILL RANGE MAINLY FROM 2 TO 5 FEET ON DELAWARE BAY.

* IMPACTS...NUMEROUS ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD AND MINOR TO MODERATE 
  PROPERTY DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE. THE TIDES AND WAVE ACTION WILL 
  LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS COASTAL FLOOD WARNING INDICATES THAT MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING
IS IMMINENT. BE PREPARED FOR RISING WATER LEVELS AND TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. FOLLOW THE
RECOMMENDATIONS OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE WATER MAY BE
DEEPER THAN YOU THINK. YOU WILL BE PUTTING YOURSELF IN DANGER AND
YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED, LEADING TO COSTLY REPAIRS.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$

DEZ001-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-101900-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0010.130310T1300Z-130310T1900Z/
NEW CASTLE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
454 AM EDT SUN MAR 10 2013

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS
MORNING TO 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* LOCATION...THE TIDAL PORTION OF THE DELAWARE RIVER AND ITS 
  TIDAL TRIBUTARIES.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AROUND THE 
  TIME OF TODAY'S HIGH TIDE.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE WORKS ITS WAY UP THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER 
  DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

* IMPACTS...LOCALIZED ROADWAY FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROAD
CLOSURES. USUALLY, THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED, LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIRS.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$

IOVINO

986 
WHUS41 KPHI 101333
CFWPHI

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
933 AM EDT SUN MAR 10 2013

DEZ002>004-NJZ012>014-020>027-101600-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130310T1600Z/
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
933 AM EDT SUN MAR 10 2013

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

* LOCATION...COASTAL AREAS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE... AS WELL 
  AS AREAS ALONG DELAWARE BAY.

* COASTAL FLOODING...THE HIGH TIDE HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AT THE
  OCEAN FRONT LOCATIONS...BUT THE BACK BAYS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH
  AND SHOULD STAY THAT WAY AT LEAST THE REST OF THE MORNING. 

* SEAS...1 FOOT OR LESS.

* IMPACTS...NUMEROUS ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD AND MINOR TO MODERATE 
  PROPERTY DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE. THE TIDES AND WAVE ACTION WILL 
  LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS COASTAL FLOOD WARNING INDICATES THAT MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING
IS IMMINENT. BE PREPARED FOR RISING WATER LEVELS AND TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. FOLLOW THE
RECOMMENDATIONS OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE WATER MAY BE
DEEPER THAN YOU THINK. YOU WILL BE PUTTING YOURSELF IN DANGER AND
YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED... LEADING TO COSTLY REPAIRS.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$

MDZ008-012-015-019-020-101900-
/O.EXB.KPHI.CF.Y.0010.130310T1600Z-130311T1600Z/
CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
933 AM EDT SUN MAR 10 2013

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY.

* LOCATION...THE TIDAL PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS
  TIDAL TRIBUTARIES.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AROUND THE TIMES
  OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...LOCALIZED ROADWAY FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROAD
CLOSURES. USUALLY... THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED... LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIRS.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$

DEZ001-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-101900-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-130310T1900Z/
NEW CASTLE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
933 AM EDT SUN MAR 10 2013

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATION...THE TIDAL PORTION OF THE DELAWARE RIVER AND ITS 
  TIDAL TRIBUTARIES.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AROUND THE 
  TIME OF TODAY'S HIGH TIDE.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE WORKS ITS WAY UP THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER 
  DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

* IMPACTS...LOCALIZED ROADWAY FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROAD
CLOSURES. USUALLY... THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED... LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIRS.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$

361 
WHUS41 KPHI 101622
CFWPHI

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1222 PM EDT SUN MAR 10 2013

DEZ002>004-NJZ012>014-020>027-101730-
/O.EXP.KPHI.CF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130310T1600Z/
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
1222 PM EDT SUN MAR 10 2013

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE HIGH TIDE HAS PASSED. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE NEXT FEW TIDE CYCLES. 

$$

DEZ001-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-101900-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-130310T1900Z/
NEW CASTLE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
1222 PM EDT SUN MAR 10 2013

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATION...THE TIDAL PORTION OF THE DELAWARE RIVER AND ITS 
  TIDAL TRIBUTARIES.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AROUND THE 
  TIME OF TODAY'S HIGH TIDE.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE WORKS ITS WAY UP THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER
  DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

* IMPACTS...LOCALIZED ROADWAY FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROAD
CLOSURES. USUALLY... THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED... LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIRS.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$

MDZ008-012-015-019-020-101900-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-130311T1600Z/
CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
1222 PM EDT SUN MAR 10 2013

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT
MONDAY...

* LOCATION...THE TIDAL PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS 
  TIDAL TRIBUTARIES.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AROUND THE 
  TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...LOCALIZED ROADWAY FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROAD
CLOSURES. USUALLY... THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED... LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIRS.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1231 AM EST SUN MAR 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING, THEN SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. A COLDER
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. A COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY MUCH ALL OVER THE PLACE, WITH SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY HAVING THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SANDY
SOIL. TEMPERATURES HAVE TUMBLED ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AS
WELL, WITH PROBABLY SOME SNOW COVER LEFT THERE. MEANWHILE, A LIGHT
WIND UP DELAWARE BAY AND INTO THE LOWER PORTION OF THE DELAWARE
RIVER IS KEEPING THE WILMINGTON AREA AROUND 40 DEGREES THUS FAR.
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE 05Z
OBSERVATIONS, THEN SOME BLENDED IN OF THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE TO
HOPEFULLY HELP WITH THE LARGE RANGE THUS FAR. LOW TEMPERATURES
WERE ADJUSTED A BIT AS WELL.

OTHERWISE, JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE OF HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAY...BUT THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN FAIR. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH SOME
UPPER 50S OVER DELAWARE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MOSTLY FROM THE E OR
SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SHARPENING AS IT CROSSES
OUR LONGITUDE EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
RECEDES EAST. MODELS SUGGEST THAT MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
ADVANCING AFTER THE RIDGE INITIALLY PASSES AND THAT THE SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO DECOUPLE OVER AT LEAST THE MORE SHELTERED
AREAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. WE THEREFORE FORECAST SOME RADIATING TO OCCUR
OVER THOSE MORE SHELTERED AREAS.

ON MONDAY, THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST AND SURFACE RIDGE
TO THE EAST SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DRY DAY OVER THE AREA. WE
EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO BE INVADING, BUT THERE SHOULD BE
AT LEAST SOME INSOLATION. H925 TEMPERATURES GET PRETTY WARM AS
THEY ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OR ABOVE 6 DEG C, AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
AGREE THAT A LOT OF THE AREA WILL MIX THAT HIGH. GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS HINT THAT AREAS UPSTREAM OF THE WATER ON THE SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME MIXING, AND NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ARE MORE EMPHATIC ABOUT THAT. THIS INDICATION MAKES SENSE
GIVEN THAT WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
AROUND US, SO OUR TEMPERATURES INLAND ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE MILD
WHILE OUR TEMPERATURES OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS ARE FORECAST TO
BE NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.

THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER IN BRINGING IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY NIGHT, AND THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST OF
THE THREE. WE WENT WITH AN ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE ON THE TIMING. BY
THE END OF MONDAY NIGHT, WE SEE THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H250 JET
APPROACHING, A DIFFLUENT FLOW AT MID LEVELS WITH H5 ENERGY
APPROACHING, DECENT H8 TO H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING IN, DECENT
H250 TO H925 DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE, A NICE H7 THETA E RIDGE
ARRIVING, GOOD LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ON OUR DOORSTEP, H8
DEW POINTS AROUND OR A BIT IN EXCESS OF 5 DEG C ABOUT TO ARRIVE (NOT
OMINOUS, BUT DECENT FOR EARLY MARCH) ON A PRETTY STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET, AND SOME SURFACE ENERGY ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONT THAT IS CLOSE
TO PARALLEL TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE SLOWED BY A BIT
THE INCREASING POPS AND MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL, WE
BASICALLY HAVE KEPT THEM IN THE LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. REGARDING TEMPERATURES, IT'S ONLY BECAUSE THINGS LOOK A
LITTLE SLOWER THAT WE DIDN'T RAISE GUIDANCE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
EVERYWHERE. WE DID RAISE GUIDANCE NORTHWEST, BUT WE ALLOWED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF MINIMAL RADIATING DURING THE EVENING SOUTHEAST. WE
ALSO PUT A NON-DIURNAL TREND IN THE MONDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. TUESDAY LOOKS PRETTY MILD (LESS SO NEAR THE WATER) ON A
GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW DESPITE THE RAIN AS DEW POINTS SHOULD COME UP.

WE STILL CLEAR EVERYTHING OUT TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT THEN THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS DEVELOPS A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA AROUND WEDNESDAY AND ENERGY DROPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
VORTEX OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. WE THEREFORE ARE CARRYING SOME CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN TO AROUND OR A BIT BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MODELS HAVE NOT YET COME TO AGREEMENT ON ENERGY ALONG A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY OR A POSSIBLE WEEKEND IMPULSE MOVING ALONG THAT
FRONT AS IT POSSIBLY PARKS NEARBY OR TO OUR SOUTH, SO NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...VFR WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM TIME TO
TIME. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS. NO LOCAL FOG IS ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY...VFR. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASE. LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS, BECOMING EAST THEN SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...OVERALL VFR. SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO
INCREASE AND IT MAY GET TRAPPED UNDER A DEVELOPING INVERSION. THIS
COULD RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF STRATUS DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z. OUR
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR, THEN DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS SHOWERS SPREAD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH NORTHWEST AND LOW TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. A GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE REGION, WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS. WE THEREFORE HAVE CONVERTED THE CURRENT SCA
TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS, EXTENDING IT THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 6 TO 9 FOOT RANGE
FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT, THEN BECOMING EASTERLY ON SUNDAY. WIND
SPEEDS SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY AROUND 10 KTS. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...
SEAS OVER THE OCEAN LIKELY WILL NOT DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERION
UNTIL THURSDAY. INITIALLY, THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE SLOWLY
RECEDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. THE SEAS OVER THE BAY
INITIALLY WILL BE SUB-ADVISORY.

LATER IN THE PERIOD, SEAS WILL BE RESPONDING TO SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND IT. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT GALES AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTER THE
FRONT HAS PASSED. SEAS SHOULD REACT OVER BOTH BAY AND OCEAN WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THESE ARE THE NUMBERS FOR THIS PAST SATURDAY EVENINGS MINOR FLOOD
ADVISORY HIGH TIDE.

SANDY HOOK    7.37 AT 618 PM WITH A 2.25 FOOT POSITIVE DEPARTURE
ATLANTIC CITY 6.62 AT 536 PM WITH A 2.43 FOOT POSITIVE DEPARTURE
CAPE MAY WAS  7.40 AT 654 PM WITH 2.35 FOOT POSITIVE DEPARTURE
LEWES DE WAS  6.51 AT 644 PM WITH A 2.22 FOOT POSITIVE DEPARTURE.

THESE WERE ALL WELL INTO THE MINOR FLOOD RANGE.

THE WINDS HAVE TURNED EAST ON THE WATERS NOW AND WITH MULTIPLE FLOOD
CYCLES SINCE WEDNESDAY...WATER IS BUILDING UP ALONG THE COAST INCLUDING
BACK BAYS. WE THINK ETSS GUIDANCE IS FAR TOO LOW FOR SUNDAY MORNING
AND WE ARE REISSUING THE ADVISORY NOW FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTS OF
NJ AN DE.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THE NNJ WATERS NEAR SANDY HOOK WILL APPROACH
MODERATE FLOODING TOMORROW MORNING WITH A POSSIBLE 7.7 TO 8 FT
STORM TIDE. THE MID SHIFT WILL REEVALUATE AND UPGRADE IF NECESSARY.

WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA TRENDS AND WE
THINK THOSE AREAS WILL SEE SPOTTY MINOR BUT NOT EXCEED THE 7.5 FT
AND 8.5 FT RESPECTIVE MINOR THRESHOLDS TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE
DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES FOR MIDDAY
SUNDAY ARE BECOMING AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY ON THE TIDAL DELAWARE. NO ACTION AT THIS TIME BUT THE MID
SHIFT WILL REEVALUATE TO SEE IF THIS STATED CONCERN IS STILL
VALID.

FOR THE CHESAPEAKE... ALL SEEMS WITHIN RANGE OF NORMALCY AND NO
FLOOD CONCERNS AT THIS TIME ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CHESAPEAKE
FROM, CAMBRIDGE NORTHWARD TO TOLCHESTER.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-022>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
     TODAY FOR NJZ021.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     DEZ003-004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
     TODAY FOR DEZ002.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DELISI/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...O'HARA
LONG TERM...DELISI/IOVINO
AVIATION...DELISI/GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...DELISI/KLINE/O'HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DRAG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1029 PM EST SAT MAR 9 2013

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-015>019-PAZ054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106-110330-
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-
MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
1029 PM EST SAT MAR 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW
JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ003-004-NJZ012>014-020-022>027-110330-
INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
1029 PM EST SAT MAR 9 2013

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED
TO A WARNING FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY COAST NEAR SANDY HOOK IN OUR 330 AM SUNDAY FORECAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ002-NJZ021-110330-
KENT-CUMBERLAND-
1029 PM EST SAT MAR 9 2013

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO NOON EDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-110330-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
1029 PM EST SAT MAR 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.