Areal Flood Warning 61, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

270 
WGUS81 KPHI 072325
FLSPHI

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
725 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013

DEC003-MDC015-072330-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FA.W.0061.000000T0000Z-130607T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NEW CASTLE DE-CECIL MD-
725 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL
STREAMS IN NORTHEASTERN CECIL AND NORTHERN NEW CASTLE COUNTIES...

ALTHOUGH THIS AREAL FLOOD WARNING IS BEING CANCELLED, RIVER FLOOD 
WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED FOR SOME LARGER BODIES OF WATER SUCH AS THE 
WHITE CLAY CREEK, THE RED CLAY CREEK, AND THE CHRISTINA RIVER.

LAT...LON 4043 7552 4011 7496 4004 7498 3995 7514
      3991 7513 3986 7523 3984 7535 3984 7559
      4008 7585

$$

PAC029-045-091-101-072345-
/O.CON.KPHI.FA.W.0061.000000T0000Z-130607T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONTGOMERY PA-PHILADELPHIA PA-DELAWARE PA-CHESTER PA-
725 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM EDT FOR URBAN
AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN NORTHEASTERN CHESTER...DELAWARE...
PHILADELPHIA AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...

AT 720 PM EDT...THE WISSAHICKON CREEK IN FORT WASHINGTON AND IN 
PHILADELPHIA WERE BOTH ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. CRUM CREEK AT NEWTOWN 
SQUARE WAS ALSO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER ON COUNTRY ROADS AND
FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO
HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO
FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 4043 7552 4011 7496 4004 7498 3995 7514
      3991 7513 3986 7523 3984 7535 3984 7559
      4008 7585

$$

KRUZDLO

872 
WGUS41 KPHI 072329
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
729 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013

PAC029-045-091-101-080245-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0061.000000T0000Z-130608T0245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONTGOMERY PA-PHILADELPHIA PA-DELAWARE PA-CHESTER PA-
729 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN...
  MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
  PHILADELPHIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
  DELAWARE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
  NORTHEASTERN CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 1045 PM EDT

* AT 728 PM EDT...THE WISSAHICKON CREEK IN FORT WASHINGTON AND IN 
PHILADELPHIA WERE BOTH ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. CRUM CREEK AT NEWTOWN 
SQUARE WAS ALSO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE 
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO 
HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO
FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 4043 7552 4011 7496 4004 7498 3995 7514
      3991 7513 3986 7523 3984 7535 3984 7559
      4008 7585

$$

KRUZDLO

880 
WGUS41 KPHI 080237
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1037 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013

PAC029-045-091-101-080645-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0061.000000T0000Z-130608T0645Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONTGOMERY PA-PHILADELPHIA PA-DELAWARE PA-CHESTER PA-
1037 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN...
  MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
  PHILADELPHIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
  DELAWARE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
  NORTHEASTERN CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 245 AM EDT

* AT 1033 PM EDT...THE WISSAHICKON CREEK IN FORT WASHINGTON AND IN 
PHILADELPHIA WERE BOTH ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. CRUM CREEK AT NEWTOWN 
SQUARE WAS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AS WAS THE PENNYPACK CREEK IN 
PHILADELPHIA. EAST GREENVILLE ALONG THE PERKIOMEN CREEK WAS RISING 
RAPIDLY AS WAS FRENCH CREEK IN PHOENIXVILLE. VALLEY CREEK IN VALLEY 
FORGE WAS STILL RUNNING HIGH AS WELL. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE 
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO 
HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO
FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 4043 7552 4011 7496 4004 7498 3995 7514
      3991 7513 3986 7523 3984 7535 3984 7559
      4008 7585

$$

KRUZDLO

094 
WGUS81 KPHI 080611
FLSPHI

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
211 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013

PAC029-045-091-080619-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FA.W.0061.000000T0000Z-130608T0645Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONTGOMERY PA-DELAWARE PA-CHESTER PA-
211 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL
STREAMS IN NORTHEASTERN CHESTER...DELAWARE AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...

RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND WATERS ARE RECEDING.

LAT...LON 4005 7497 3995 7514 3991 7513 3987 7521
      3988 7526 3994 7524 3997 7528 4001 7521
      4006 7526 4009 7523 4007 7519 4008 7517
      4005 7511 4014 7502 4011 7496

$$

PAC101-080645-
/O.CON.KPHI.FA.W.0061.000000T0000Z-130608T0645Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PHILADELPHIA PA-
211 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 AM EDT FOR URBAN
AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN PHILADELPHIA COUNTY...

AT 209 AM EDT...THE WISSAHICKON CREEK IN PHILADELPHIA WAS STILL 
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE 
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO 
HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO
FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

LAT...LON 4005 7497 3995 7514 3991 7513 3987 7521
      3988 7526 3994 7524 3997 7528 4001 7521
      4006 7526 4009 7523 4007 7519 4008 7517
      4005 7511 4014 7502 4011 7496

$$

KRUZDLO

661 
WGUS41 KPHI 080613
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
213 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013

PAC101-081045-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0061.000000T0000Z-130608T1045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PHILADELPHIA PA-
213 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN...
  PHILADELPHIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 645 AM EDT

* AT 212 AM EDT...THE WISSAHICKON CREEK IN PHILADELPHIA REMAINED 
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO
HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO
FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

LAT...LON 4005 7497 3995 7514 3991 7513 3987 7521
      3988 7526 3994 7524 3997 7528 4001 7521
      4006 7526 4009 7523 4007 7519 4008 7517
      4005 7511 4014 7502 4011 7496

$$

KRUZDLO

452 
WGUS81 KPHI 080959
FLSPHI

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
559 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013

PAC101-081009-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FA.W.0061.000000T0000Z-130608T1045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PHILADELPHIA PA-
559 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL
STREAMS IN PHILADELPHIA COUNTY...

THE FLOOD WATERS HAVE RECEDED IN PHILADELPHIA. AS A RESULT...THE 
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4005 7497 3995 7514 3991 7513 3987 7521
      3988 7526 3994 7524 3997 7528 4001 7521
      4006 7526 4009 7523 4007 7519 4008 7517
      4005 7511 4014 7502 4011 7496

$$

IOVINO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
958 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS IT RACES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE PASSAGE TO OUR NORTH DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF MID-MORNING, LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA, WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEW
YORK STATE DOWN THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE.
MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
VIRGINIA AND INTO THE DELMARVA. OVERALL, MUCH OF THE FCST LOOKS TO
BE ON TRACK, WITH CATEGORICAL POPS IN PLACE AND PERIODS OF RAIN
EXPECTED. A ROUND OF HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON, AS LASTEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
DELMARVA AND INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA. SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE
TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS USING LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE, BUT FCST MAX
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINTAINED, AS VALUES NORTH TO SOUTH LOOK IN
LINE AS COMPARED WITH THIS MORNINGS 12Z SOUNDING DATA AND LATEST
TRENDS.

OTHERWISE, THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE THE SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE AS TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-
TROPICAL WHILE MOVING UP THE COAST. THE CONTINUED INFUSION OF
BAROCLINIC FORCING WILL MAINTAIN THIS SYSTEM, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY WIND IMPACTS WITH IT. THE MAIN WIND FIELD IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY TO OUR EAST, THEREFORE OUR FOCUS IS
PRIMARILY ON HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO SURGE AS THETA-E ADVECTION RAMPS UP IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL WAA. THIS PLUME OF HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AIR WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM BEING LIFTED RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF RAIN, SOME OF WHICH WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE RAINFALL
RATES COULD BE 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR, ALTHOUGH THIS HEAVIER RAIN MAY
COME IN TWO BURSTS. THE FIRST THIS MORNING WITH THE INITIAL
PUSH/LIFT WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE. THE SECOND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE MAIN FORCING ARRIVES WITH THE SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH ANDREA.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AS IT GETS CAUGHT
UP MORE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, HOWEVER PLENTY OF
FORCING FROM AN INCOMING TROUGH WILL ASSIST IN SQUEEZING OUT PLENTY
OF RAINFALL. FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL
FLOODING, SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOISTEN WITH THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEW
POINTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DELMARVA INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY, SOME INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP. AS OF NOW, IT IS ON
THE LOW SIDE HOWEVER IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION. AS OF NOW, WE BELIEVE THE THUNDER POTENTIAL IS ON THE
LOWER SIDE AND WE WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE MAINLY USED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS.
THE WARMER READINGS SHOULD BE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO A
CLOSER PROXIMITY INTO THE WARM SECTOR. THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES HAD
SOME INCORPORATION OF THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WHICH HAS BEEN CAPTURING
THE MORE STEADY READINGS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE SURFACE LOW CENTER ASSOCIATED
WITH CYCLONE ANDREA AS IT IS FORECAST TO BE A NON-TROPICAL SYSTEM
THIS FAR NORTH. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE THROUGH
TONIGHT AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS FEATURE, AIDED BY
LARGE SCALE LIFT AS BAROCLINIC FORCING CONTINUES TO GET INVOLVED,
WILL TRACK NEAR OUR COAST MAINLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK, FOCUS
SHOULD NOT BE PLACED ON THE CENTER SINCE IMPACTS WILL BE FAR AWAY
FROM THIS IN THE FORM OF VERY HEAVY RAIN.

IT APPEARS AS THE VORTICITY CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH ANDREA ARRIVES
THIS EVENING, THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN THE RAIN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY FOR A TIME. THIS WILL BE DUE TO STRONGER FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A RIBBON OF INCREASING
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD AIDE IN THE
RAINFALL RATE EFFICIENCIES FOR A TIME, GIVEN IT IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED
IN AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES OF 2.00-2.25 INCHES. AS A
RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE THE HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN THE FORECAST. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT FOR A TIME THIS EVENING, RAINFALL RATES ARE RATHER
HIGH. WE CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA OF POPS PEAKING DURING THE EVENING,
THEN LOWERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. WE MAY NOT BE FAST ENOUGH WITH THIS
DECREASING TREND AFTER ABOUT 06Z, AS THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE
EXITING OUR NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES BY, THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN THE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET MOSTLY CLIPPING EASTERN NEW
JERSEY TO SOUTHERN DELAWARE. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME
AHEAD OF IT, SOME INCREASE IN THE WIND SHOULD OCCUR. HOWEVER,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A GOOD AMOUNT OF STABILITY IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WHICH WOULD HINDER VERTICAL MIXING. AS A RESULT, ANY STRONGER
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE CONFINED TO THE COAST ON EASTWARD.

A WARM SECTOR TYPE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW MOSTLY IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
DOWN INTO DELAWARE. WHILE THE INSTABILITY IS NOT FORECAST TO BE
MUCH, THERE COULD BE SOME LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS EMBEDDED.
THE BEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THOUGH COINCIDING WITH A BETTER
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH, BASED ON THE
CURRENT TRACK OF THE SYSTEMS CENTER. THEREFORE, WE WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER THE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY A NAM/GFS EVEN BLEND WAS USED. WE ONCE
AGAIN INCORPORATED THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE INTO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING. SOME FOG MAY BE AROUND,
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXTENT OF THIS DUE TO ONGOING RAIN
AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ONCE WHATEVER IS LEFT OF ANDREA MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY ON
SATURDAY THE PATTERN LOOKS UNSETTLED FOR A BETTER PORTION OF THE LONGTERM.
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE THE DOWNSTREAM ATLANTIC RIDGING
WEAKENING A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND A RATHER LARGE CUT-OFF
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING AND DIVING SOUTHWARD INTO GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD
KEEP A PREDOMINANT SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD AND ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE
IMPULSES TO MOVE THROUGH...OF VARYING INTENSITIES.

WE STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE LINGERING TROPICAL AIRMASS ON
SATURDAY WHILE SOME OF THE OP GUIDANCE IS SHOWING WEAK SURFACE
BAGGINESS TO OUR SOUTH, A LEFT-OVER BAROCLINIC ZONE. A RATHER WEAK
IMPULSE IS FORECASTED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGHING TO OUR
NORTHWEST PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT NEAR 80 GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AS MORE
ENERGY IS PUMPED INTO A DEEPENING MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. FOR THE MOST PART WE SHOULD BE DRY WITH PWATS VALUES HALVING
THEMSELVES FROM FRIDAY/SATURDAY SEASONAL MAXES, BUT DIURNAL
CONVECTION, PEAKING IN THE EVENING HOURS, STILL EXISTS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON SATURDAY WITH LESS CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY.

WE THEN START TO SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE AS THE
MID-LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST BEGINS TO CUT-OFF AND SINKS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE MID-LEVEL FLOW ENOUGH TO PUMP
PWATS BACK UPWARDS OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT IS TIED TO A SURFACE WAVE THAT DEVELOPS AND MOVES
THROUGH NEW YORK STATE INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE
VOLATILITY OF THE ATMOSPHERE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE HAVE KEPT THE
LIKELY POPS FOR AT LEAST OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AND TAPER THEM DOWN TO
CHANCE BY LATE TUESDAY ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION.

A SECONDARY FRONT MAY PUSH DOWN FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A REINFORCING PUSH OF SOME COOLER,
DRIER AIR INTO OUR REGION AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW MOVES TO OUR
NORTHEAST. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY THURSDAY WITH A PREDOMINANT NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE AND
POSSIBLY ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE PASSING THROUGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN, WITH POSSIBLE LIFR AT TIMES
IN HEAVIER RAIN. SOME HEAVIER RAIN IN THE MORNING, HOWEVER THE MORE
WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, HOWEVER THIS SEEMS LOW TO NOT
INCLUDE A MENTION. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME
GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS /MAINLY CLOSEST TO THE COAST/, SHOULD
TURN EAST-NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KNOTS
AT 2,000 FEET IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS FAR EASTERN NEW JERSEY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY CLIP KMIV AND KACY, ALTHOUGH THE DURATION
IS A BIT UNCERTAIN THEREFORE NO LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WAS INCLUDED AT
THIS TIME.

TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH LATE. EASTERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS, SHIFTING TO
NORTHERLY LATE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY WITH A
A POSSIBLE RETURN TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. PATCHY
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
CYCLONE ANDREA WILL TRACK UP THE COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT,
ACCELERATING WITH TIME. THIS STORM IS FORECAST TO BE NON-TROPICAL
THIS FAR NORTH. THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TODAY
MAINLY ON THE OCEAN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THERE IS A HEALTHY
LOW-LEVEL JET FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING, HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINLY SHOW A SHARP
INVERSION THAT WILL LIMIT VERTICAL MIXING. BASED ON THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW, THE BULK OF THE STRONGER WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER, AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ENOUGH.
THIS MAY ALLOW THE WINDS TO TURN MORE GUSTY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. WE ARE STILL NOT SEEING A LARGE ENOUGH GALE
POTENTIAL, THEREFORE NO GALE WARNING ATTM. ON THE OCEAN, THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY START TIME WAS CHANGED TO NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS, AND STARTED EARLIER /15Z/ ACROSS THE TWO NORTHERN ZONES.

THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW MAY ALLOW A PERIOD
OF 25 KNOT GUSTS INTO LOWER DELAWARE BAY, THEREFORE WE ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM,
THEREFORE THIS ADVISORY GOES UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THE SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE AS THE REMNANT LOW PULLS FURTHER
NORTHEAST BUT WE COULD CONTINUE TO SEE AN ELEVATED SEA STATE DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. EXTENDED THE END TIME OF THE SCA THROUGH 00Z
SUNDAY TO ALLOW FOR THE GRADUAL DECREASE IN SEAS. DID NOT WANT TO
SEGMENT THE HAZARDS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE WHEN THE NEAR TERM IS
ACTIVE, THOUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS SHOULD HOLD ONTO THE 5 FOOT SEAS
LONGER...POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE INTO OUR WATERS LATE ON MONDAY. SEAS AND
WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA AT TIMES FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE FALLING BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AND
ACCOMPANYING CYCLONE ANDREA COULD CERTAINLY RESULT IN URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING. OUR MOST CONCERN IS THE URBAN AREAS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT, AND IT WAS
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE SUSSEX AND WARREN COUNTIES. THESE COUNTIES HAVE
LOWER FFG GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY THE 1-HOUR, AND THERE IS A DECENT
CHANCE ENHANCED RAINFALL SETS UP HERE FOR A TIME LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, WE ARE EXPECTING 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE
WATCH AREA. THE RAIN COULD BECOME ENHANCED SOME THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WINDS TURNING MORE EAST OR
NORTHEAST FARTHER NORTH. THIS COULD SET UP CLOSE TO THE INTERSTATE
95 CORRIDOR, WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS NEAR AND WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR AND PW VALUES 2.00-2.25 INCHES. THIS CAN CERTAINLY FUEL HIGH
RAINFALL RATES, MAKING THE URBAN AREAS OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
VULNERABLE TO FLASH FLOODING.

ELSEWHERE, FLOODING OF SOME ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE IS
EXPECTED. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR STREAMS, CREEKS AND RIVERS AS
RUNOFF WILL PRODUCE RISES. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ON THE DELAWARE
RIVER ATTM. THERE IS LONGER TERM RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES AT A MAJORITY OF SITES ALONG THE OCEAN FRONT AND
TIDAL DELAWARE BAY ARE RUNNING AROUND A HALF FOOT ABOVE. IN THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY DEPARTURES ARE AVERAGING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN HALF A
FOOT. BASED ON THE FORECASTED WINDS BEING EASTERLY AS THE CENTER OF
THE LOW PASSES OVERHEAD AND THEN RAPIDLY TURNING TOWARDS THE WEST
COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT A FORESEEN ISSUE AT THIS TIME. SOME LOCATIONS
ALONG THE TIDAL DELAWARE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY MAY APPROACH NEAR
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE ADDITION OF FRESH WATER AND EAST WINDS
LOCKING THE WATER UP. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE REASSESSED DURING THE DAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
IS A RESULT OF BUILDING SURF AND SWELL COMBINATION. IN ADDITION,
MANY BEACHES WERE ALTERED FOLLOWING A SIGNIFICANT STORM LAST YEAR
WHICH CAN CERTAINLY ENHANCE THE RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-101>106.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     012>027.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-024>026.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-
     020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GORSE/KLINE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...HEAVENER/MEOLA
AVIATION...GORSE/HEAVENER/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/HEAVENER/MEOLA
HYDROLOGY...GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HEAVENER
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
441 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013

PAZ054-055-060>062-080845-
CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
441 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
EXISTS
AND CAN PRODUCE SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

MDZ020-NJZ001-007>010-015-PAZ101>106-080845-
CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MERCER-
WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-
EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
441 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-NJZ012-013-016>023-027-PAZ070-071-
080845-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
441 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING TO OCCUR DURING
TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-080845-
DELAWARE BEACHES-EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
441 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING TO OCCUR DURING
THE FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

ANZ430-431-450>455-080845-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
441 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.