Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
649 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR THE HIGHEST RIDGES IN
GARRETT...PRESTON AND TUCKER COUNTIES. LATEST RUC FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ON BUFKIT ARE SHOWING 60-65KTS TODAY JUST ABOVE 2500FT
IN THESE COUNTIES.

PER HPC DESIGNATION OF MOD RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
COUNTIES WITH THE LOWEST FFG...WILL ISSUE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO W OHIO AFTER DAWN. SHOWERS AND
SOME STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES ITS SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION. EXPECT A GOOD SOAKING TODAY WITH ONE- HALF
TO ONE INCH OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. IN THE FLOOD WATCH
COUNTIES...1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE BULK OF IT
COMING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED PARTICULARLY IF A LINE OF STRONG SLOW MOVING CONVECTION
DEVELOPS.

THE OTHER PROBLEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
ACROSS THE REST OF MY COUNTIES. LATEST CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR
TODAY PUT MUCH OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK. THINK THE BEST WAY TO
HANDLE THIS IS TO INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY
WITH DAMAGING WINDS.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RAPIDLY MOVE IN TONIGHT. LEFT OVER RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
THINK THE BEST LOCATION FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE SFC TEMPS WILL
RESPOND QUICK ENOUGH ELSEWHERE TO ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATION.
CONCERNED ABOUT DAMAGING WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL. VERY
STRONG CAA...COMBINED WITH PRES RISES OF 6 TO 8 MBS IS PRESENTING
A PERIOD OVERNIGHT THAT MAY REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY. WILL ALLOW
THE NEXT SHIFT TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS.

RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE FAR NORTH AND
RIDGES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING.

AT THIS POINT...HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON EFFECTS FROM SHORTWAVE
WHICH WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT. LATEST
MODEL RUNS ARE HINTING AT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. THU NIGHT/FRI MORN FORECAST WILL NEED FINE
TUNING AS MODELS GET BETTER HANDLE ON LOCATION OF WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE FORECAST AS MODELS SEEM TO BE IN
DISAGREEMENT. GFS/ECMWF DO SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
AREA ON THE WEEKEND AND THUS BRINGING A CLIPPER SOUTHEAST WITH THE
GFS BRINGING HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW THAN THE ECMWF. POSSIBLE LAKE
ENHANCED AND/OR TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW COULD DEVELOP AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE QUICK MOVING SYSTEM.

THE GFS BRINGS IN ANOTHER STRONGER CLIPPER OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF
TRACKS THE SYSTEM MORE NORTHEAST AND BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA
ALONG A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM LEAVING
THE MID WEEK DRY. HPC TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF RUN THE LATTER PART
OF THE EXTENDED AND THUS FORECAST IS BASED ON GFS/HPC GUIDANCE KEEPING
SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR WL DCRS TO MVFR IN SHRA LT MRNG INTO THIS AFTN AS A STG CDFNT
APRCHS FM THE W. SHRA EXTEND WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE FNT. SHOULD
SEE ADDNL DVLPMNT ALG THE FNT THIS AFTN. STLT/MESO/RAOB INSTAB
CHARTS SHOW SOME INSTAB ALG/AHD OF THE FNT. COULD SEE A TS AT ANY
OF THE SITES ESP S OF I-80 THIS AFTN BUT DUE TO PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY IN INSTAB/TIMING HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM.
INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR +SHRA AND STG WND GUSTS AT ZZV LT MRNG. THIS
MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO OTHER SITES AS WELL IN LTR FCSTS. STG LLVL
JET WL KEEP THE THREAT OF LLWS ACRS THE RGN THRU THIS MRNG.
FROPA/WSHFT TO THE W EXPD THIS EVE WITH MVFR CONDS CONTG. EVEN A
FEW SHSN PSBL OVRNGT.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTION ARE EXPD THRU THE PD AS SVRL DISTURBANCES
MOVE THRU IN COLD W-NW FLOW. GUSTY W WNDS ARE ALSO EXPTD THU.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ001.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ016-023-031-073>076.
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR WVZ012-021>023-041.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
443 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013

OHZ050-059-069-PAZ014-015-020>022-029-WVZ001>004-310945-
JEFFERSON OH-BELMONT-MONROE-BUTLER-CLARION-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-
ARMSTRONG-WASHINGTON-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-
443 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ016-023-031-073>076-WVZ012-021-022-310945-
JEFFERSON PA-INDIANA-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE-
FAYETTE RIDGES-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-
443 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WEST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MDZ001-WVZ023-041-310945-
GARRETT-PRESTON-TUCKER-
443 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND AND NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   FLOOD WATCH.

SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

OHZ039>041-048-049-057-058-068-PAZ007>009-013-310945-
TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-
NOBLE-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-
443 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA AND WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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