Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
631 PM EDT TUE APR 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
JUST MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO BETTER REFLECT WARMING TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT ARE SEEING BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER. ADJUSTED POP TIMING A LITTLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BASED ON THE MOST RECENT HRRR SINCE IT SEEMS TO BE REFLECTING THE
CURRENT SITUATION QUITE WELL. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WHILE AMPLE CLOUD COVER HAS REMAINED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWOPINTS OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT HAVE STILL REBOUNDED QUITE NICELY ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE
IN CAPE TO NEAR 1000J/KG FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND WHILE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
CURRENTLY DO NOT LINE UP WELL...THIS COULD CHANGE AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE COLD FRONT AS IT GRADUALLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD. GIVEN THIS...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAINTAINING THEMSELVES TO SEVERE LEVELS. THUS...AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 11PM
THIS EVENING.

BASED ON THE MOST RECENT HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS...THE LINE
OF SHOWERS SHOULD REACH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT
BEFORE THE BOUNDARY STALLS OVER SOMEWHERE ALONG THE MASON DIXON
LINE.

WARM NR TERM TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND THE
LATEST OBSERVATION TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STALLED FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD WED...BUT APPEARS TO ALMOST
WASH OUT AS RIDGES STRENGTHENS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THE
FRONT WILL BE FORCED NORTHWARD AS THE MAIN SFC LOW SWINGS OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE HEIGHT
RISES ARE IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE TROUGH WHICH WILL DIG INTO THE
ROCKIES. WILL INCLUDE THE CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WED AS AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CREST THE TOP OF THE BUILDING RIDGE.

AREA WILL LIE IN THE WARM SECTOR BY WED NIGHT AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THU. EXPECT WED NIGHT TO REMAIN DRY WITH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
POSSIBLE THU WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW...TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CDFNT SHOULD BE EXITING THE RGN FRI EVE...WITH ANY SHRA/TS CHCS
ENDG FRI NGT. AN UPR LVL TROF IS EXPD TO MOVE ACRS THE GT LKS RGN
SAT...BUT MOISTURE IS LMTD SO KEPT FCST DRY ATTM. HIGH PRES BLDS IN
SAT NGT THRU MON NGT UNTIL A CDFNT APRCHS FM THE W ON TUE WITH
ANOTHER CHC FOR SHRA/TS. TEMPS SHOULD BE BLO AVG LVLS OVR THE
WKEND...WITH A WRMG TREND ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THINK THAT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF TSRA REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT AS IT PASSES.
GUSTY SW WNDS LATE THIS AFTN SHOULD SHFT TO THE W AND THEN N THIS
EVE AFT FROPA. MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY AT FKL/DUJ INTO
THE EVE...OTRW GENL LOW END VFR CIGS FCST OUTSIDE OF ANY PCPN ACRS
THE RGN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FNT WL MOVE BACK N AS A WRMFNT WED NGT INTO THU WITH BRF RESTRNS
PSBL. A CDFNT WL MOVE E ACRS THE RGN FRI WITH SHRA/TS RESTRNS BEFORE
HI PRES BLDS IN SAT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
734 PM EDT TUE APR 16 2013

OHZ049-050-057>059-068-069-PAZ014-020>023-029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-
012-021-022-172345-
HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-BUTLER-
BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-
WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-
MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-
734 PM EDT TUE APR 16 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 111 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048-PAZ007>009-013-015-016-WVZ023-041-172345-
GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-MERCER-VENANGO-
FOREST-LAWRENCE-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-PRESTON-TUCKER-
734 PM EDT TUE APR 16 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST
CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
641 PM EDT TUE APR 16 2013

OHZ057-162315-
MUSKINGUM OH-
641 PM EDT TUE APR 16 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUSKINGUM COUNTY...

AT 638 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM 7 MILES
WEST OF DILLON STATE PARK TO 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF EAST FULTONHAM TO 5
MILES NORTH OF NEW LEXINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE PENNY SIZE HAIL.

  LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  EAST FULTONHAM...     DILLON STATE PARK...  ZANESVILLE...
  CANNELVILLE...        DRAKE...              DUNCAN FALLS...
  PHILO...              BRIDGEVILLE...        RURALDALE...
  BLUE ROCK STATE PARK...                     CHANDLERSVILLE...
  ADAMSVILLE...

  THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAY WILL BE IMPACTED...
  I-70 IN OHIO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 143 AND 170.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY CALLING...412-262-1988...POSTING
TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER
@NWSPITTSBURGH.

LAT...LON 3996 8220 4009 8219 4014 8181 4003 8172
      3994 8173 3993 8169 3984 8169 3975 8171
      3976 8207 3981 8209 3982 8218 3990 8217
      3992 8224 3995 8224

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
649 PM EDT TUE APR 16 2013

OHZ059-069-WVZ004-012-162330-
BELMONT OH-MARSHALL WV-MONROE OH-WETZEL WV-
649 PM EDT TUE APR 16 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MONROE...NORTHWESTERN WETZEL...
SOUTHEASTERN BELMONT AND SOUTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTIES...

AT 647 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTH OF
GRAYSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. HEAVY RAIN WILL POND WATER ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL DITCHES
AND SMALL STREAMS.

  LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LEWISVILLE...         GRAYSVILLE...         WOODSFIELD...
  ANTIOCH...            FLY...                BENWOOD...
  ROUND BOTTOM...       CAMERON...            HANNIBAL...
  NEW MARTINSVILLE...   CLARINGTON...         PROCTOR...

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY CALLING...412-262-1988...POSTING
TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER
@NWSPITTSBURGH.

LAT...LON 3957 8105 3958 8127 3970 8128 3971 8132
      3978 8132 3992 8066 3961 8060 3958 8085
      3959 8086 3958 8089 3960 8095 3954 8103
      3954 8104

FRIES

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
732 PM EDT TUE APR 16 2013

PAZ014-020>023-029-073-170015-
ALLEGHENY PA-ARMSTRONG PA-BEAVER PA-BUTLER PA-INDIANA PA-
WASHINGTON PA-WESTMORELAND PA-
732 PM EDT TUE APR 16 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA...EXTREME EAST
CENTRAL BEAVER...EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON...NORTHERN
ALLEGHENY...NORTHWESTERN WESTMORELAND...SOUTHEASTERN BUTLER AND
SOUTHERN ARMSTRONG COUNTIES...

AT 730 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM 2 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CROOKED CREEK LAKE PARK TO MOON...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. HEAVY RAIN WILL POND WATER ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL DITCHES
AND SMALL STREAMS.

  LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WEXFORD...            SEWICKLEY...          RUSSELLTON...
  NATRONA HEIGHTS...    MOON...               IMPERIAL...
  GIBSONIA...           FREEPORT...           FRANKLIN PARK...
  ALLISON PARK...       PERRYSVILLE...
  CROOKED CREEK LAKE PARK...

  HIGHWAYS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  I-279 PARKWAY NORTH BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 13.
  I-579 CROSSTOWN BOULEVARD.
  I-376 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 50 AND 52.
  I-376 PARKWAY WEST BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 53 AND 59.
  I-376 PARKWAY EAST BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 79 AND 84.
  I-79 IN PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 60 AND 73.
  I-76 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 35 AND 56.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY CALLING...412-262-1988...POSTING
TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER
@NWSPITTSBURGH.

LAT...LON 4064 7884 4043 7959 4045 8038 4061 8018
      4073 7956 4072 7881

FRIES