Severe Thunderstorm Warning 249, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1001 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY
AND WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT HAS NOW ADVANCED INTO
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AS OF ABOUT 930 PM...AND EVEN PASSED
PITTSBURGH INTERNATIONAL AS OF 10 PM. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG
ISALLOBARIC COMPONENTS DUE TO RAPID PRESSURE RISES AND CONTINUING
A STRONG GRADIENT FLOW WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING LARGELY
INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DUE TO MORE RAPID COLD ADVECTION
ABOVE THE FRICTIONAL SURFACE LAYER. THE SOUNDINGS LARGELY SUPPORT
GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT ACROSS ALMOST THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE LONG EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY WELL BE THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ACROSS THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
EXISTS IN TRACKING A DEEP TROPOPAUSE FOLD CURRENTLY EXTENDING
ACROSS WESTERN OHIO INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS
IN THE TROPOPAUSE FOLD ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ROUGHLY 49-60 KTS AND
GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SIGNATURES AND DEGREE OF HIGH PV AIR COMING ALL
THE WAY DOWN TOWARD 5 KFT OVERNIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...A
VERY LOW TROPOPAUSE WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT MOMENTUM TO
BE FUNNELED TOWARD THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT...THE WIND ADVISORY IN
THESE AREAS WAS UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...WITHOUT A VERY DEEP TROPOPAUSE FOLD...SIMPLE MIXING
WILL RESULT IN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS THROUGH THE
NIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE RIDGES WHERE THE ELEVATION WILL LIKELY ALLOW
FOR MIXING TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. AS A
RESULT...THE WIND ADVISORY HERE WAS EXTENDED THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FLOW WILL TURN JUST ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
I-80 CORRIDOR AND THE RIDGES MONDAY NIGHT BUT ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN CLEAR OUT SKIES
WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONABLE THURSDAY THEN A COMPLICATED PATTERN FOR THE
LATER PERIODS WITH MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES WITH ENERGY IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. USED HPC GRIDS FOR THE MOST PARTS TO KEEP IN
COORDINATION. MUCH COLDER AIR FOR LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONDITIONS AT MOST TERMINALS ARE RISING TO VFR...ALTHOUGH
RESTRICTIONS ARE HANGING ON AT FKL/DUJ. SHOULD BE A FEW HOUR BREAK
BEFORE CONDITIONS DROP AGAIN WITH AN ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING
SLIGHTLY IN THE TAFS AS THE LINE APPROACHES KZZV BY 02Z AND EXITS
KLBE BY 06Z. WITH SUPPORT FROM A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...WIND GUSTS
WITH THIS LINE OF SHOWERS COULD REACH 50-60KTS. ALL LIGHTNING
STRIKES HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE LAST ONE TO TWO HOURS...SO TS WILL
NOT BE INCLUDED IN TAFS EVEN WITH THE VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS IN
SHOWERS. EXPECT MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG THE LINE BUT A
QUICK IMPROVEMENT ALMOST EVERYWHERE BEHIND IT AS STRONG MIXING
BRINGS DRY AIR TO THE SURFACE.

S-SW WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST WITH THE FRONT AND REMAIN
ELEVATED...WITH GUSTS 35-40KTS CONTINUING UNTIL NEAR SUNRISE
MONDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME RESTRICTIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF KPIT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-
     057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ014-020>023-029-031-
     073-075.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ074-076.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ007>009-013-015-
     016.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ007>009-013-
     015-016.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ021-022.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
412 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-WVZ001>004-012-181000-
TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-
MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-
WETZEL-
412 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A FEW TORNADOES ALSO WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073-075-WVZ021-022-181000-
MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-
ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-
MARION-MONONGALIA-
412 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A FEW TORNADOES ALSO WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

MDZ001-PAZ074-076-WVZ023-041-181000-
GARRETT-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE RIDGES-PRESTON-TUCKER-
412 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A FEW TORNADOES ALSO WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG RIDGES. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

KRAMAR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
933 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0918 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WOODSFIELD              39.76N  81.12W
11/17/2013                   MONROE             OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1302884

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
941 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0903 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEETONIA                40.88N  80.76W
11/17/2013                   COLUMBIANA         OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1302885

TGREEN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
948 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0858 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SALEM                   40.90N  80.85W
11/17/2013                   COLUMBIANA         OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1302887

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1000 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HERMITAGE               41.23N  80.44W
11/17/2013                   MERCER             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1302888

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1001 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GROVE CITY              41.16N  80.09W
11/17/2013                   MERCER             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1302889