Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
322 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AT 3PM...ERIE AIRPORT IS REPORTING 45 DEGREES WITH A NORTHERLY
WIND WHILE FRANKLIN IS REPORTING 63 DEGREES WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED TO THE NORTH
OF PITTSBURGH. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS BEGINNING TO DECREASE...CANNOT
RULE OUT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IN GENERAL...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW TREK TO THE EAST. THE FRONT WILL
ONLY HAVE REACHED INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL OHIO BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE SOME WIDE VARIATIONS ON
TEMPERATURES...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH THE
WOBBLING FRONT. COULD EASILY SEE A 20 DEGREE SPREAD IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN TOMORROW...WITH LOW 60S TO THE NORTH AND NEAR 80
ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE
CONTINUED THE CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. MOST PLACES
SHOULD SEE BETWEEN HALF AN INCH AND AN INCH OF RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES IN EARNEST RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS 850 MB CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES FALL OFF INTO
THE -6 TO -8C RANGE. INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO
COLDER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SLIDING OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS
CONTINUED WEAK SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY IN THE LARGER SCALE TROUGHING
OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A LOW END CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
MIXING WITH SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THE COLD ADVECTION OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO COME UP BY SUNDAY WITH THE
NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM. AS THIS
OCCURS...DEEPENING UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON ALL
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS SHOULD DRIVE HEIGHTS HIGHER OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. IN RESPONSE...WARMER CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE
COMMON. HOWEVER...THE DEGREE OF RIDGING OVER THE REGION IS NOT
PARTICULARLY WELL AGREED UPON...PARTICULARLY TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD LEAVE THE AREA OPEN TO INSTABILITY
ENCROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF. DUE
TO THIS POSSIBILITY...CHANCES OF SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES STILL SEEM LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED NORTH OF THE
PITTSBURGH METRO AREA. CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR...WITH MVFR A POSSIBILITY IN THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
FKL/DUJ DROPPING TO IFR OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER CIGS. WITH FRONT
REMAINING IN THE VICINITY...CANNOT RULE THIS OUT...AND HAVE BROUGHT
THOSE TAFS DOWN TO LOWER CONDITIONS. GENERAL CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW...CONSIDERING MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING A
HANDLE OF WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED. OUTSIDE OF
FKL/DUJ...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.
RAIN SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN TO THE WEST OF TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE 18Z TAFS.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
THE POSSIBILITY OF RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW. CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BRIEFLY ENTERS THE REGION. A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
417 AM EDT WED APR 10 2013

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-110830-
GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-
JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-VENANGO-
FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-
ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-
FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-
MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-
417 AM EDT WED APR 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST
CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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