River Flood Warning 13, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

445 
WGUS81 KPBZ 270938
FLSPBZ
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
438 AM EST FRI DEC 27 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN OHIO..
  MUSKINGUM RIVER AT COSHOCTON AFFECTING COSHOCTON COUNTY 
 
. RECENT RUNOFF AND WATER RELEASE HAS RAISED THE MUSKINGUM RIVER AT
COSHOCTON TO THE MINOR FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVER WILL WAVER NEAR THE 
STAGE OF 15 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO GO BELOW
FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. THE WATER MAY BE
DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR LATER 
DEVELOPMENTS. 

&&

OHC031-271738-
/O.CON.KPBZ.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-131227T1800Z/
/CSHO1.1.ER.131227T0100Z.131227T0830Z.131227T1200Z.NO/
438 AM EST FRI DEC 27 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MUSKINGUM RIVER AT COSHOCTON.
* UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  4:00 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THIS 
  AFTERNOON.  
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...LOW AREAS ARE FLOODED AND WATER REACHES A 
  FEW HOMES ALONG ROUTE 16 SOUTH OF COSHOCTON AND ALONG COUNTY ROUTE 
  1A NORTH OF COSHOCTON.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
736 PM EST THU DEC 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BEFORE TWO DIFFERENT SYSTEMS BRING THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ONE WEAK VORT LOBE COINCIDENT WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A WEAK
UPPER JET STREAK IS CURRENTLY TRANSITING THE NORTHERN REACHES OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS HAS TEMPORARILY ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY ON KPBZ WSR-88D FROM INDIANA TO DUBOIS THIS EVENING. THIS
WEAK SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXIT THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED WITH IT AS IT IS RATHER TRANSITORY.

OTHERWISE...WEST-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BRING
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING...ALLOWING
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA TO FULLY CLEAR AND LIKELY DECOUPLE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A RATHER RAPID DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES BEFORE MID
CLOUDS AGAIN ENCROACH UPON AND OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION TO INCREASINGLY DRY TREND MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES
ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN BORDER OF THE AREA...NORTHERN
MERCER/VENANGO/FOREST COUNTIES. DUE TO THE WESTERLY COMPONENT OF
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...A FEW WEAK ECHOES SUCH AS THE LAKE INDUCED
FLURRY ACTIVITY NEAR MEADVILLE MAY WANDER JUST OVER THE BORDER
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...WHEN THE FLOW
TAKES ON A MUCH MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.

THE ONLY ADDITIONAL AMENDMENT TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD BRIEF
FLURRIES ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN BORDER THIS EVENING. EVERYTHING
ELSE IN THE FORECAST SEEMS COPACETIC AT THIS TIME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY...LATEST MODELS SHOW FAIRLY DECENT CONTINUITY
IN PROGGING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF DEEPENING
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY / SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE SFC FEATURE TRACKING
UP THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...THERE STILL IS DISAGREEMENT IN HOW
FAR WEST THE EVENTUAL LOW TRACK UP THEW COAST WILL BE...WHICH WILL
PLAY A LARGE ROLL IN PRECIPITATION TYPE AND IMPACTS. MORE WEIGHT
WAS GIVEN TO THE 12Z GFS WITH ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY AS
IT WAS IN LINE WITH THE 00Z EC AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...BUT
SLIGHTLY DEEPER. A DEEPER AND SLIGHTLY MORE WEST 12Z SOLUTION
SHOULD WORK OUT WELL BECAUSE AFTER LOOKING AT MODTRENDS...THE GFS
MODEL TREND OVER THE PAST TEN RUNS REVEALS A POSITIVE REGRESSION
IN 500MB HEIGHTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND NEGATIVE OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL US...AND THIS TREND HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS.

WITH THAT...POPS WERE INCREASED AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY. EVEN WITH USING
THE 12Z GFS AND ANTICIPATE A DEEPER SOLUTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
MODEL RUNS...A GOOD DEAL OF THE PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY MAY STILL
JUST FALL AS RAIN BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW IN THE EVENING.
MODEL MEAN FREEZING LEVELS START OUT BETWEEN 4-5KFT...DOWN TO 3KFT
BY SUNDAY EVENING AND CLOSE AT OR AT SFC BY MONDAY MORNING.

QPF AMOUNTS WERE LARGELY BASED OF THE BEST ANALOG OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN...WHICH GIVES 0.1 TO 0.2 ACROSS THE NORTH...0.2 TO 0.4 THROUGH
THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND 0.4 TO 0.6 ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR
SUNDAY...WHICH ALL SEE REASONABLE. SO ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WERE KEPT ON THE
LOWER SIDE...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AS MUCH COLDER AIR
ONCE AGAIN SURGES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT. EXTENDED CHC POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO MONDAY NIGHT
ESPECIALLY FOR THE RIDGES. NEXT CLIPPER THEN FLIES SOUTHEAST IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR TUESDAY WITH CHC POPS MAINLY NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH CONTINUED. A DRY AND COLD FORECAST CONTINUED FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH STRATOCU WL CONT TO PLAGUE NRN PORTS THIS EVE UNDR EXITING
SHRTWV...VFR IS ANTICIPATED AS SFC HIGH PRES SLIDES OVR THE UPR OH
REGION.  TRAILING DISTURBANCE WL SHUNT SOME MID LVL CLDINESS ACRS
AREA PORTS LTR TNGT AND EARLY FRIDAY...BUT OVRALL VFR SHOULD
CONT...WITH EXCEPTION FOR NRN PORTS WHERE WEAK REINFORCED COLD
ADVCNT IN THE WAKE OF THAT IMPULSE MAY SPPRT SOME MVFR STRATOCU BY
FRI AFTN.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRES
MOVS UP THE ERN SEABOARD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
314 AM EST THU DEC 26 2013

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-270815-
GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-
JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-VENANGO-
FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-
ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-
FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-
MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-
314 AM EST THU DEC 26 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST
CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.