Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
159 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE
GREAT LAKES INTO NEXT WEEK. PERIODIC DISTURBANCES WILL SUPPORT
DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MUCH OF THE SAME THROUGH TONIGHT. NUMEROUS SMALL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AMID MODESTLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. MINIMAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP
SEVERE WEATHER RISK AT BAY. ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING
MUCH LIKE THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. FEW AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

MANNING

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER LOW WILL SHEAR OUT SOMEWHAT BEING REPLACED
BY ANOTHER CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST. THIS WILL HELP SHIFT THE
DYNAMICS BACK FROM THE EAST COAST TO THIS PART OF THE WORLD.
RETREATING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BRING GREATER MOISTURE INTO AT
LEAST EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW NIGHT. HARD TO BELIEVE AT THE END OF JUNE THAT WE'LL BE
SITTING UNDER AN 80+KT JET.

INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL FORCE CONVECTION IN
WAVES AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE'LL BE
ABLE TO KEEP SOME OF THE INSTABILITY LIMITED WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR RETURNS...BUT AGAIN DON'T SEE MORE THAN A
STRONG STORM OR TWO ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY IS A CHALLENGING DAY... BEST MID AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FORCING SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND NORTH WITH THE RETROGRADING UPPER
LOW. SURFACE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE PLANTED ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES OR SO. LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY...AND KEPT THINGS LARGELY UNCHANGED SAVE FOR
SOME TWEAKS TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT SYNOPTIC THINKING.

MANNING

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SAME OLE-SAME OLE WITH H5 LOW CONTINUING OVER CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD IN PLACE AND...WITH CONTINUED COOL POOL
ALOFT...EXPECT MORE DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP. IN FACT...SURE
LOOKS LIKE WE NEVER EXPERIENCE AN AIR MASS CHANGE. UPPER LOW
GRADUALLY FILLS AND MOVES NORTHWARD BY END OF PERIOD AND EXTENSION
OF BERMUDA HIGH THEN EXTENDS WESTWARD. CONTINUED CHANCE SHOWERS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS AS SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES DROPPING THROUGH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BRING THE CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE TO BE EXPECTED...OCCASIONAL MVFR TO IFR
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT SOME MVFR FOG COULD ONCE
AGAIN OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL
DURING THE DAY. IFR FOG WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT SITES SIMILAR TO
LAST EVENING...KFKL...KDUJ...AND KZZV.

MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. W-SW WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS IN DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
OVERNIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
906 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-301315-
GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-
JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-VENANGO-
FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-
ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-
FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-
MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-
906 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST
CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MANNING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
428 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013

PAZ008-014-015-022-292100-
ARMSTRONG PA-BUTLER PA-CLARION PA-VENANGO PA-
428 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
ARMSTRONG...NORTHEASTERN BUTLER...SOUTH CENTRAL VENANGO AND WEST
CENTRAL CLARION COUNTIES...

AT 425 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR EMLENTON...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PENNY SIZE HAIL. HEAVY RAIN WILL POND WATER
ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

  LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  KENNERDELL...         EMLENTON...           CLINTONVILLE...
  VAN...                KNOX...

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY CALLING...412-262-1988...POSTING
TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER
@NWSPITTSBURGH.

LAT...LON 4138 7967 4125 7943 4113 7974 4119 7996

KRAMAR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
516 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013

OHZ039-049-292200-
HARRISON OH-TUSCARAWAS OH-
516 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL TUSCARAWAS AND
NORTHWESTERN HARRISON COUNTIES...

AT 514 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTH OF
DENNISON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

  LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  UHRICHSVILLE...       DENNISON...           TAPPAN...

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING...AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP
RAPIDLY. REMAIN ALERT...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF WARNINGS
ARE ISSUED.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY CALLING...412-262-1988...POSTING
TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER
@NWSPITTSBURGH.

LAT...LON 4047 8133 4035 8114 4030 8134 4035 8138

KRAMAR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
618 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013

OHZ041-PAZ020-292300-
BEAVER PA-COLUMBIANA OH-
618 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN COLUMBIANA AND WEST
CENTRAL BEAVER COUNTIES...

AT 615 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHEAST
OF CHESTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

  LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BLACKHAWK...

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY CALLING...412-262-1988...POSTING
TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER
@NWSPITTSBURGH.

LAT...LON 4076 8048 4067 8034 4064 8053 4067 8056

KRAMAR

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