Wind Advisory 5, NWS Paducah, KY

Alexander County, IL, Edwards County, IL, Franklin County, IL, Gallatin County, IL, Hamilton County, IL, Hardin County, IL, Jackson County, IL, Jefferson County, IL, Johnson County, IL, Massac County, IL, Perry County, IL, Pope County, IL, Pulaski County, IL, Saline County, IL, Union County, IL, Wabash County, IL, Wayne County, IL, White County, IL, Williamson County, IL, Gibson County, IN, Pike County, IN, Posey County, IN, Spencer County, IN, Vanderburgh County, IN, Warrick County, IN, Ballard County, KY, Caldwell County, KY, Calloway County, KY, Carlisle County, KY, Christian County, KY, Crittenden County, KY, Daviess County, KY, Fulton County, KY, Graves County, KY, Henderson County, KY, Hickman County, KY, Hopkins County, KY, Livingston County, KY, Lyon County, KY, Marshall County, KY, McCracken County, KY, McLean County, KY, Muhlenberg County, KY, Todd County, KY, Trigg County, KY, Union County, KY, Webster County, KY, Bollinger County, MO, Butler County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Carter County, MO, Mississippi County, MO, New Madrid County, MO, Perry County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Scott County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Wayne County, MO

437 
WWUS73 KPAH 170554
NPWPAH

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1154 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-171400-
/O.CON.KPAH.WI.Y.0005.131117T1400Z-131118T0200Z/
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...
JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO...
MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...CLINTON...
BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON...
MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...
DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...
CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...
BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
1154 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM CST SUNDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM CST SUNDAY. 

* WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY SUNDAY AHEAD 
  OF AN APPROACHING STORM FRONT. 

* TIMING: SOUTH WINDS WILL REALLY PICK UP DURING THE DAYTIME 
  HOURS SUNDAY AS A WEATHER FRONT APPROACHES. THE STRONGEST 
  WINDS WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE 
  MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 

* WINDS: SOUTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 
  TO 50 MPH AT TIMES. THESE WILL BE THE REGULAR GRADIENT WINDS 
  OCCURRING WITHOUT THE AID OF A THUNDERSTORM. 

* IMPACTS: WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT... 
  ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. IT WILL BE ESPECIALLY 
  DANGEROUS TO BE IN SMALL CRAFT ON AREA RIVERS OR LAKES WITH 
  TREACHEROUS WAVES. TIE DOWN OR OTHERWISE SECURE ANY LOOSE 
  OUTDOOR LAWN OR FURNITURE ITEMS THAT MAY BE BLOWN ABOUT BY 
  STRONG WINDS. 

* WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH COLD FRONTAL 
  PASSAGE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THEN THEY WILL 
  SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND MAY REMAIN STRONG FOR AN HOUR OR 
  TWO BEFORE GRADUALLY EASING OFF SUNDAY NIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 30 MPH OR GREATER FOR LONGER THAN ONE HOUR...OR WIND GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 45 MPH FOR ANY DURATION.

&&

$$

069 
WWUS73 KPAH 171037
NPWPAH

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
437 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-172300-
/O.EXT.KPAH.WI.Y.0005.131117T1400Z-131117T2300Z/
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...
JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO...
MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...CLINTON...
BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON...
MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...
DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...
CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...
BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
437 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST
THIS AFTERNOON...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
CST THIS AFTERNOON. 

* TIMING: SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
  SUNDAY AS A WEATHER FRONT APPROACHES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH
  THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL OCCUR FROM MIDDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
  PASSES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

* WINDS: SOUTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO
  50 MPH AT TIMES. THESE WINDS WILL NOT BE ASSOCIATED WITH
  THUNDERSTORMS OR PRECIPITATION.

* IMPACTS: WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT... 
  ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. IT WILL BE ESPECIALLY 
  DANGEROUS TO BE IN SMALL CRAFT ON AREA RIVERS OR LAKES WITH 
  TREACHEROUS WAVES. TIE DOWN OR OTHERWISE SECURE ANY LOOSE 
  OUTDOOR LAWN OR FURNITURE ITEMS THAT MAY BE BLOWN ABOUT BY 
  STRONG WINDS. 

* THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
  LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEY WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER
  THAN THE SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 30 MPH OR GREATER FOR LONGER THAN ONE HOUR...OR WIND GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 45 MPH FOR ANY DURATION.

&&

$$

DRS

165 
WWUS73 KPAH 171953
NPWPAH

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
153 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

ILZ075-080-081-084-MOZ076-172300-
/O.NEW.KPAH.HW.W.0001.131117T1953Z-131117T2300Z/
/O.CON.KPAH.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-131117T2300Z/
JEFFERSON-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-JACKSON-PERRY MO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...PINCKNEYVILLE...
WEST FRANKFORT...CARBONDALE...PERRYVILLE
153 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON. 

* TIMING: SOUTH WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE WEST DURING THE 2 PM
  TO 5 PM TIME FRAME AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS PASSAGE. STRONG
  GUSTS TO 50 TO 60 MPH WILL OCCUR AS THE FRONT MAKES PASSAGE.

* WINDS: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AVERAGE 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS
  TO 50 MPH TO 60 MPH AT TIMES. THESE WINDS WILL NOT BE ASSOCIATED
  WITH THUNDERSTORMS OR PRECIPITATION.

* IMPACTS: THESE ARE DAMAGING WIND SPEEDS THAT CAN DOWN TREES AND
  POWER LINES AND CAUSE OTHER SEVERE STORM LIKE DAMAGE. IN
  ADDITION WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...
  ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF
58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

$$

ILZ076>078-082-083-085>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ086-
087-100-107>112-114-172300-
/O.CON.KPAH.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-131117T2300Z/
WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-HAMILTON-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-
UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-
POSEY-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-
MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-
TRIGG-CALDWELL-UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-
DAVIESS-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-
CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...MOUNT CARMEL...
MCLEANSBORO...CARMI...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...
JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO...
MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...CLINTON...
BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON...
MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...
DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...
CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...MARBLE HILL...CAPE GIRARDEAU...
PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...BLOOMFIELD...
SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
153 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON. 

* TIMING: SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
  A WEATHER FRONT APPROACHES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE HIGHEST
  GUSTS WILL BE OCCURRING AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
  EARLY EVENING HOURS. 

* WINDS: SOUTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 
  TO 50 MPH AT TIMES. THESE WINDS WILL NOT BE ASSOCIATED WITH 
  THUNDERSTORMS OR PRECIPITATION. 

* IMPACTS: WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT... 
  ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. IT WILL BE ESPECIALLY 
  DANGEROUS TO BE IN SMALL CRAFT ON AREA RIVERS OR LAKES WITH 
  TREACHEROUS WAVES. TIE DOWN OR OTHERWISE SECURE ANY LOOSE 
  OUTDOOR LAWN OR FURNITURE ITEMS THAT MAY BE BLOWN ABOUT BY 
  STRONG WINDS. 

* THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
  AND MAY REMAIN ELEVATED FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY
  TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 30 MPH OR GREATER FOR LONGER THAN ONE HOUR...OR WIND GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 45 MPH FOR ANY DURATION.

&&

$$

861 
WWUS73 KPAH 172140
NPWPAH

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
340 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

ILZ075-080-081-084-MOZ076-172300-
/O.CAN.KPAH.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-131117T2300Z/
/O.CON.KPAH.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-131117T2300Z/
JEFFERSON-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-JACKSON-PERRY MO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...PINCKNEYVILLE...
WEST FRANKFORT...CARBONDALE...PERRYVILLE
340 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CST
THIS AFTERNOON. 

* WINDS WILL STILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY FOR A COUPLE MORE
  HOURS...BUT THE THREAT FOR GUSTS TO 60 MPH HAS WANED. THEREFORE
  THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED AND THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN
  EFFECT. 

* TIMING: WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE WEST AS A COLD FRONT MAKES
  PASSAGE. STRONG GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

* WINDS: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST WILL
  AVERAGE 15 TO 30 MPH AND MAY GUST UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES. THESE
  WINDS WILL NOT BE ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS OR
  PRECIPITATION.

* IMPACTS: WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...
  ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. IT WILL BE ESPECIALLY
  DANGEROUS TO BE IN SMALL CRAFT ON AREA RIVERS OR LAKES WITH
  TREACHEROUS WAVES. TIE DOWN OR OTHERWISE SECURE ANY LOOSE
  OUTDOOR LAWN OR FURNITURE ITEMS THAT MAY BE BLOWN ABOUT BY
  STRONG WINDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 30 MPH OR GREATER FOR LONGER THAN ONE HOUR...OR WIND GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 45 MPH FOR ANY DURATION.

&&

$$

ILZ076>078-082-083-085>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ086-
087-100-107>112-114-172300-
/O.CON.KPAH.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-131117T2300Z/
WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-HAMILTON-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-
UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-
POSEY-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-
MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-
TRIGG-CALDWELL-UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-
DAVIESS-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-
CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...MOUNT CARMEL...
MCLEANSBORO...CARMI...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...
JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO...
MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...CLINTON...
BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON...
MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...
DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...
CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...MARBLE HILL...CAPE GIRARDEAU...
PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...BLOOMFIELD...
SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
340 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON. 

* TIMING: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
  AFTERNOON HOURS AS A WEATHER FRONT APPROACHES. THE STRONGEST
  WINDS WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE OCCURRING AS WE HEAD INTO
  THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

* WINDS: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
  GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 MPH AT TIMES. THESE WINDS WILL NOT BE
  ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS OR PRECIPITATION.

* IMPACTS: WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT... 
  ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. IT WILL BE ESPECIALLY 
  DANGEROUS TO BE IN SMALL CRAFT ON AREA RIVERS OR LAKES WITH 
  TREACHEROUS WAVES. TIE DOWN OR OTHERWISE SECURE ANY LOOSE 
  OUTDOOR LAWN OR FURNITURE ITEMS THAT MAY BE BLOWN ABOUT BY 
  STRONG WINDS. 

* THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT 
  AND MAY REMAIN ELEVATED FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE SUBSIDING 
  EARLY TONIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 30 MPH OR GREATER FOR LONGER THAN ONE HOUR...OR WIND GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 45 MPH FOR ANY DURATION.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
559 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

As mentioned in previous forecast discussions, the main forecast
focus for the short term time period will be the potential for
severe thunderstorms on Sunday. With this forecast package,
attempted to closer define in time and space the coverage of the
severe weather potential on Sunday. Will get to that discussion shortly.

For this morning, abundant moisture in the planetary boundary
layer (stratus deck) will persist for most of the day until large
scale lift moves in later in the day to lift the lower ceilings.
However, as the layer is lifted, anticipate the development of
scattered/areas of drizzle over Southeast Missouri, moving
northeast with time. As the lift becomes stronger, there should be
sufficient updrafts to produce isolated showers late this morning
and into the early afternoon.

By 300 pm CST or later, mid level lapse rates and shear should
increase over central Missouri to generate some isolated
thunderstorms over extreme western sections of Southeast Missouri
closer to sunset and the eastern limb of a 50 to 60 knot 850 mb
winds moves into the area between 6 pm and 9 pm CST tonight.
Thunderstorms coverage is likely to increase markedly and persist over
Southeast Missouri and Southern Illinois between 9 pm and
midnight, before translating bodily eastward into West Kentucky
through daybreak on Sunday.

Although deep layer shear is expected to remain at or below 20
knots during the overnight hours on Saturday, mid-level lapse
rates are going to be quite robust, supporting decent updrafts.
Would not be surprise to see some marginal hail production with
stronger thunderstorms overnight, but any downward momentum for
gusty winds will be tempered by the more stable lower levels of
the atmosphere under the jet. Locally heavy rain may be possible
across the northern 1/2 of the WFO PAH forecast area, especially
in Southern Illinois, Southwest Indiana, and Northwest Kentucky
Saturday night.

The main focus for severe weather on Sunday will lie between 10 am
and 6 pm CST. Although severe criteria hail is likely in the
strongest updrafts, the main concern will be damaging winds. The
NAM-WRF/GFS deterministic guidance suggests that 5.5 to 6.5C/km
low and mid-level lapse rates will move into Southeast Missouri
and Southwest Illinois, ahead 50-60 knot 0-3km shear working
northeast into the area between 9 am-noon on Sunday. Introduced
severe thunderstorms with damaging winds into the gridded/text
forecast over Southeast Missouri/Southwest Illinois during the
morning, translating the severe potential south and east through 3
pm, when a secondary jet max moves into part of the interstate 64
corridor over Southern Illinois and Southwest Indiana.
Thermodynamic and dynamic elements support decent downward
momentum and storm organization of a eastward moving squall line.
The wind threat should move quickly northeast from Southeast
Illinois into Southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky during the
middle and late afternoon, moving out of the WFO PAH forecast area
before 6 pm CST. Any wind damage threat further south and east
into West Kentucky should be more sporadic and brief in duration.

May have to consider a wind advisory for parts of Southeast
Illinois, Southwest Indiana, and Northwest Kentucky on Sunday, as
wind gusts will likely reach near 45-50 mph ahead of the
convective line.

Utilized the Short Range Ensemble guidance, NAM-WRF and GFS
guidance as the primary template for the timing of severe
convection, as well as in the weighting of temperatures, winds,
and dewpoints, etc...(sensible weather elements) for the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday
Night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

The latest GFS and ECMWF are in reasonably good agreement for the
Monday night through Wednesday night period, but for Thursday and
beyond they diverge significantly. This results in low forecast
confidence for the end of the work week.

The models generate significant systems in the northern and southern
streams, and the interaction between the two could result in a large
range of potential weather across our region. In the northern
stream, they both move a system from the Canadian Rockies on
Wednesday to the Great Lakes on Friday. The ECMWF is much stronger
with this system than the GFS. In the southern stream, both models
develop a significant storm system in the southwest Wednesday into
Thursday. At the surface, both models bring a significant chunk of
Canadian/Arctic high pressure southward into the Plains Wednesday
into Thursday.

The ECMWF is more pronounced with ridging aloft in the eastern
Pacific and along the west coast, which allows the southern stream
system to close off and form a high over low blocking situation over
the western U.S. Thursday night into Friday. This allows the
progressive northern stream system to dive southeast over the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley, which brings the Arctic surface high
spilling southeast through our area. If this ECMWF solution is
right, we could see a very cold rain event Thursday night and
Friday. Freezing rain and even snow could be a concern before the
precipitation pushes out of the area.

The GFS is not as amplified/strong with the west coast ridging,
which allows the southern stream system be more progressive, and
dominant, emerging from the southern Rockies into the southern
Plains Thursday night into Friday. This results in higher heights
and southwest flow aloft over our region, which keeps the arctic
surface high at bay over the central/northern Plains. Eventually the
GFS sets up an inverted surface trough from southwest to northeast
across the area Thursday night and Friday and possibly into the
weekend. The surface trough becomes a focus potentially for very
heavy rainfall, as precipitable water values are close to a 1.5
inches which is off the climatological charts for November.

The forecast blend used to build this morning's forecast leans
toward the warmer GFS solution, but PoPs and QPF are muted in the
Thursday night through Friday night period due to the low confidence
regime. Given that the GFS does not generate negative Showalter
Indices near the trough until the weekend, will keep the
precipitation type all showers throughout the extended period. Have
enough confidence to introduce PoPs for late in the week, even
though the models get there in different ways. However, the models
are likely to bounce around quite a bit in their individual
solutions given the complicated interactions between the two streams
of energy aloft, and the presence of an Arctic airmass.

Jumping back to Wednesday into Thursday of this week, surface high
pressure will move east allowing for a return of southeasterly
low-level flow Wednesday. As the flow aloft becomes southwesterly
Wednesday night both models bring a disturbance with an area of
showers northeast through the area into Thursday morning. Decided to
insert a slight chance of showers to southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois Wednesday night due to the model agreement in this cycle.
Would not be surprised to see some showers linger into Thursday, but
will leave it dry for now. QPF will be under a tenth of an inch with
this disturbance.

Temperatures are likely to remain at or below normal through the
period. Although, if the GFS solution is close, portions of the area
could see much warmer temperatures heading into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 559 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

MVFR, if not IFR, ceilings and increasingly gusty south winds will
be the rule through the period. May see ceilings in some locations
briefly lift to MVFR levels to begin the period, but another swath
of low-level moisture will bring a couple hours of IFR ceilings
back to all sites beginning mid-morning. By Noon went optimistic
with MVFR ceilings. Visibilities have been improving the last few
hours, so see little reason for anything other than VFR
visibilities through the day.

Ceilings will drop back down to IFR levels this evening and
showers and possibly thunderstorms will become increasingly likely
through the evening. Overnight, most areas should see at least
MVFR rain with the showers and storms. Currently only have
prevailing TS overnight at the Kentucky sites, but wont be
surprised if it occurs at the other terminals, as well. South winds
will continue through the evening and overnight, with gusts
increasing toward 25kts at most locations through the night. The
showers and storms will be coming to an end around 12Z, and
possibly earlier, but would expect the IFR ceilings to continue
even behind the precipitation.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...DRS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
448 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-171100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
448 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...THEN EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
ISOLATED...BUT MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS TONIGHT. MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS.

THE AVERAGE MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS WILL BE EAST BETWEEN 35 AND 45
MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED...DISCRETE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...MOST LIKELY AFTER 10 AM CST SUNDAY.

THE COVERAGE OF SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXPAND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...REACHING INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY BY
AFTERNOON.

A SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY...WORKING EAST INTO
SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY. THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AVERAGE STORM MOTION WILL BE EAST
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH.

AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE SCATTERED MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...OR WITH THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST
INDIANA...MAY CAUSE BRIEF AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OF POORLY DRAINED
AND LOW-LYING AREAS.

WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 9 AM AND
3PM CST...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST
INDIANA...REACHING DOWN INTO NORTHWEST KENTUCKY.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END BEFORE 6PM CST SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. REPORTS OF ANY WIND
DAMAGE AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF AN INCH WILL BE APPRECIATED.

SMITH