Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
650 PM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

HIGH SURFACE CAPE JUST TO NORTH OF NORTHEASTERN PTN FA...IS WHERE
STORMS ARE FIRING AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THAT
VICINITY. NO ENERGY ALOFT THERE...BUT HIGH CAPE THERE EASTWARD
WITH INCOMING FRONT RESULTED IN THUNDERSTORM WATCH BOX TO OUR
EAST. OUR CHANCE WILL COME IN NEXT FEW HOURS...TO SEE IF MORNING
CONVECTIVE CAP ERODES AND ALLOWS DESTABILIZATION OVER WESTERN FA.
ALREADY CAPES TO 4000 J/KG WERE COALESCING IN CENTRAL MO...AND
THIS MAY BE IN THE OFFING FOR US AS CLOUDS START TO CLEAR. ENERGY
ALOFT THAT IS JUST UPSTREAM WILL THEN MOVE IN OVERTOP INCOMING
COLD FRONT AND LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER WATCH BOX FOR US...AGAIN
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY NEXT COUPLE HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO
BE MAIN THREAT ALTHOUGH LARGE HAILERS NOT OUT OF QUESTION. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN A POSSIBLE TOO...AND WILL PAY ATTENTION TO OZARKS OF
SEMO IN PARTICULAR WHERE 2-3" AVERAGE QPF OCCURRED WITH THIS
MORNING'S ROUND OF PCPN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM POP CONTINUES IN W-NWLY FLOW FOR US FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS/WITH SOME LINGER EARLY WED
MORNING AS 2NDARY ENERGY MOVES OVER US. POPS END WITH DRIER AND
COOLER AIR WORKING THRU THE COLUMN WED PM...AND CARRIES ON THRU
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (THUR NIGHT). HIGH TEMP/HIGH
HUMIDITY ENVIRON TODAY TO THEN BE REPLACED WITH COMFORTING 5-10F
COOLOFF IN BOTH TEMP/TD NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD TO FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. GOOD EARLY
ON AND FAIR NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY WEAK SIGNALS.

AS PREVIOUSLY STATED NOT MUCH RECOVERY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
SLATED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE 00Z TUE ECMWF AND THE 12Z UKMET
AND 06Z TUE DGEX CONTINUES TO BRING AN MCS TYPE SYSTEM INTO THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LATEST 12Z TUE GFS HAS LOST
THIS FEATURE AND HOLDS ONTO THE FRONT ONLY...WITH VERY LIMITED
PRECIP AMOUNTS. WILL HOLD ONTO THE MCS SYSTEM FOR NOW BUT WILL
MONITOR POSSIBLE ADJUSTMENTS. EITHER WAY THE NEXT SYSTEM IS NOW
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AS A SATURDAY EVENT...POSSIBLY STARTING
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL SEE WHAT THE EXTENDED INIT YIELDS AND
TRY TO FINE TUNE IT AFTER THAT. OTHERWISE COOLER.

THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SYSTEM RIDING IN ON THE NW FLOW ALOFT ABOUT
NEXT TUESDAY WILL KEEP LOW CHCS AT BEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. OTHERWISE
EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AFTER TODAY. TEMPS
WILL WARM A BIT SATURDAY THEN COOL BACK DOWN AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE TSTM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
00Z TAF PERIOD. PCPN IS POSSIBLE IN THE WRN HALF OF THE REGION IN
THE LATE EVENING AS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MIGHT SWEEP ACROSS
THE KCGI AND KPAH TERMINALS. A MVFR CIG IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS
NEAR SUNRISE THERE ALSO. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NNE GENERALLY AOB
10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
449 AM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-241000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
449 AM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD
SHOULD A SEVERE STORM OCCUR...BUT LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS
THAT TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS WILL ALSO POSE THE RISK FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

PEAK HEAT INDEX READINGS AROUND 100 TO 105 ARE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR MORE
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LINGERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTH OF THE
SHAWNEE HILLS IN FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE
REGION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO
STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND UPDATES.

RJP

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