Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1147 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

CONVECTIVE LINE IN TWO PARTS. THE NORTHERN PART ACCELERATED A
LITTLE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...REACHING ACROSS THE WABASH THIS MORNING
BUT STAYING NORTH OF US. NOW THE LINE IS CLOSER TO ORIGINAL TRACK
SINCE UPPER SPEED CORE IS DIGGING TROF A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS MO AND 2ND PART OF LINE
IS MOVING INTO SEMO WITH IT. THIS IS THE MAIN THRUST AREA FOR SVR
CONVECTION FOR NOW. FURTHER EAST...BREAKS IN CLOUDS ARE ALLOWING
THE FARTHEST EASTERN PTNS OF THE FA TO HEAT UP CLOSE TO THE FREE
AMBIENT/CONVECTIVE TEMP. CURRENT WATCH EXTENDS TO ABOUT THIS
AREA...AND POINTS EAST MAY BE INCLUDED IN A NEW WATCH LATER. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

12Z MODELS ARE IN SYNCH..WITH FRONT/CONVECTION STILL POISED TO
MAKE WAY THRU FA BY MID EVENING...AND HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND
FRONT CONTINUING THRU NIGHT BUT ENDING BY/BEFORE 12Z FRIDAY.
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN ITS DEPARTING WAKE TOMORROW.

STRONG WINDS/GUSTS IN TIGHT GRADIENT OF WARM SECTOR WILL CONTINUE
WITH WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THRU MIDNIGHT...THIS WILL COVER THE
STILL TIGHT GRADIENT FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER FROPA AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE MEAN FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. ANOTHER RATHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE MID
SECTION OF THE NATION ABOUT MID WEEK. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT.

AS FAR AS THE DAILY DETAILS...THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH
ABOUT MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT EAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL WARM UP AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER FROM THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT
TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...AND THEN SOUTH ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO THE POINT WHERE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ON MONDAY. WEAK IMPULSES IN WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...COUPLED WITH MODERATELY STRONG WARM ADVECTION...COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW THE
STANDARD TRACK THAT HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED THIS MONTH...FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE ARE RATHER LARGE
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT. THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED MOSTLY ON THE 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE 00Z GFS OR ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. BASED
ON THE ECMWF...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS ROBUST SYSTEM. THOUGH WIND
FIELDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /SFC DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S/ SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL NOT BE AS
HIGH AS TODAYS SYSTEM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WEDNESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY. THIS IS THE BASIS FOR MAINTAINING MORE POST FRONTAL
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAN WITH THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

VFR DECKS WILL PREVAIL TIL THE CONVECTIVE LINE MAKES ITS PUSH
ACROSS THE FLIGHT TERMINALS. WHILE WE CANNOT RULE OUT DEVELOPMENT
AHEAD OF THE LINE...AT THIS WRITING...IT APPEARS THE INTRO OF MVFR
CIGS WILL COME WITH THE LINE ITSELF...LATE THIS PM. IFR VSBYS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE LINE IN THE HEAVIEST STORM PERIOD FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS AS THE FRONT MAKES PASSAGE...FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN THE POST FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL LAST 1 TO 3
HOURS AS WELL. STRONG GRADIENT WINDS AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTS INTO THE 40S KTS AND A CONVECTIVELY
AIDED BURST COULD GO HIGHER.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
931 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-191000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
931 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR MOST OF THE QUAD
STATE...EXCLUDING THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE PENNYRILE. REFER TO
THE WATCH FOR DETAILED INFORMATION.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. REFER TO THE ADVISORY FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AFTER THIS STORM SYSTEM PASSES...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE
THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROST FORMATION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ARE
FORECAST WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THERE
IS A SMALL POTENTIAL OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. DUE TO LIMITED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE LOWER THAN TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED TODAY AND COULD INCLUDE TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1036 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

MOZ100-107>109-181645-
WAYNE MO-CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...
POPLAR BLUFF
1036 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PACKING 60 MPH WIND GUSTS OR BETTER WILL
BE HITTING CARTER AND RIPLEY COUNTIES IMMINENTLY...AND SHOULD
REACH THE POPLAR BLUFF AREA BY NOON.

REMEMBER THIS AREA IS UNDER A TORNADO WATCH...SO THESE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE A TORNADO AS WELL.

AT 1035 AM...RADAR SHOWS THE LINE EXTENDING FROM ALTON MISSOURI TO
OXFORD ARKANSAS.