River Flood Warning 76, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
618 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS LONG AS THE UPPER LOW IS
IN OUR VICINITY...AND IT DOES LOOK TO BE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST OR MOST OF IT. THE LOW RETROGRADES
NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE HEART OF OUR FA TO CENTRAL MO OVER THE NEXT
48-72 HOURS. POPS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE PEAK HEATING PTN OF THE
DAY AS IT HAS BEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AS DESTABILIZATION
SHOWERS/STORMS TAP HIGH PW'S. DUALPOL RAINFALL RATES MAY BE
INTENSE AT TIMES WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
HEAVIER SHOWER/STORM AREAS...ESP WHERE THE REPEAT. THIS WILL BE
MOST LIKELY THIS PM AND TMRW PM. BY WED...WE ARE MORE WARM
SECTORED AND WOULD EXPECT A SLIGHT DECREASE IN POPS AS WE ESCAPE
BEING DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE LOW ITSELF AND THE PROFILE WARMS A
LITTLE ALOFT.

TEMPS WILL RUN SIMILAR TO GOING TEMPS WITH NOT MUCH SWING GIVEN
THE CLOUDS/PCPN...WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR MASSAGES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...UPPER LEVEL RIDGES OF
HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST US AND
JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH AN UPPER TROUGH IN BETWEEN.
WITH TIME THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST BUILDS WESTWARD AND
THIS COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WILL BRING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF DEEP MOISTURE
AS WELL AS INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM THE EAST
TOWARD THE WEST.

THROUGH SATURDAY LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT. SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE GFS BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION AND
BRINGS A CHUNK OF ENERGY/SHORT WAVE ACROSS OUR CWA WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE RIDGE IN PLACE. EITHER WAY WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WE SHOULD STILL HAVE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE WILL DEPEND ON UPPER
SUPPORT OR THE LACK THEREOF.

BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT THE GFS BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE COMPLETELY AND
KEEPS THE AREA IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD THUS
YIELDING DAILY PRECIP CHANCES WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN CONTINUE
TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE WESTWARD WHICH WOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH PRECIP
CHANCES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. KINDA HARD TO BELIEVE THE UPPER RIDGE
IS GOING TO BREAK DOWN THAT MUCH SO KEPT RATHER SMALL POPS JUST IN
CASE.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
WITH READINGS NOT EXPECTED TO GET BACK TO NORMAL UNTIL THE VERY END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013

WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE FORECAST. SOME
BREAKS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. DURING THE DAYBREAK HOURS...PERSISTENCE
SUGGESTS CIGS MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO AT OR BELOW 1K/FT. WILL CARRY
VCSH FOR THIS EVENING GIVEN RADAR TRENDS...AND SCATTERED WEAK
CONVECTION FORECAST TO CONTINUE ABOUT THE NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER
LOW SITUATED OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
339 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-022045-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
339 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS
EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED....BUT LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED....BUT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS AGAIN
POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST IN THE EAST ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. THE CHANCES WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY AND
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

JP