River Flood Warning 65, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
302 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE TODAY...WITH THE H50 LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT
FINALLY MOVING EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT MAY ACTUALLY OFFER THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
CONVECTION...AS MORE IN THE WAY OF LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL INTERACT
WITH THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER OUR REGION. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT MAY HANG AROUND
FROM MORNING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A PERIOD OR TWO OF SUNSHINE SOMETIME DURING THE DAY.
WITH SFC DEW POINTS RUNNING CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES...IT WILL NOT TAKE
MUCH DIABATIC HEATING TO SIGNIFICANTLY DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
LOOKING AT FORECAST WIND PROFILES...IT SEEMS THAT ALL TYPES OF
SEVERE HAZARDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES.

COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION BY AROUND SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY...LEAVING MOST OF THE DAY DRIER AND COOLER. SHOULD BE A
QUITE PLEASANT SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED
FROM CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TUESDAY
WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS LOWS
MODERATE FROM THE 50S INTO THE 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT THE START OF THE
WEEK WILL MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING LOW WILL RESULT IN THE
RETURN OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE A RATHER DISORGANIZED SURFACE PATTERN DURING
THIS TIME...SO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO BE QUITE SPORADIC.
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES BELOW 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AN
EMPHASIS ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

TRANSLATION OF DECAYING MCS THROUGH THE AREA MAY STILL YIELD WIND
GUSTS OF 30 KTS OR SO WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE STORMS AT KPAH AND
KOWB IN THE 08Z-10Z TIME FRAME ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

ONCE THE MAIN LINE MOVES THROUGH A SITE...A 2 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF
RAIN/SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN BE
EXPECTED. THE AREA SHOULD BE DRYING OUT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS...AND GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY.

WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TAF
SITES BEFORE THE END OF THIS 00Z PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH BEYOND THIS PERIOD...AND THERE MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...GM/DRS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
508 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-021000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
508 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL POSE A FLASH FLOOD
CONCERN.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT. IF THEY DO
DEVELOP...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL ALSO
BE A CONCERN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO OCCUR.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND FORECAST TO WORSEN ON SOME AREA RIVERS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS
LOW.

SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG SOME AREA RIVERS. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR
DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

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