Flash Flood Warning 46, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
555 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

Southerly flow for the past couple of days has advected deep
moisture across the region. In the meantime, a NE-SW oriented frontal
boundary has stalled halfway across our CWA. The combination of warm
air advection, isentropic upglide, and upper level impulses has
caused elevated showers and even a few thunderstorms to
continually stream northeast across locations generally along and
n/w of the Ohio river today. This has prompted widespread flash flood
warning in those locations, with multiple reports of street
flooding, and even a water rescue near Poplar Bluff in se MO. For
the most part this scenario will remain the same late today,
except that with time a sharp h5 low/wave will become negatively
tilted as it ejects northeast from west central Texas today to
the Great Lakes region around sunrise Sunday.

The passage of this feature just to our north and west is expected
to induce a surface low on the front that is forecast to track
northeast across our CWA tonight. The surface low will eventually
pull/push the previously stalled frontal boundary across the
remainder of our CWA late tonight.

The passage of the surface and upper trofs along the front will
greatly enhance lift, instability, and shear across the area,
especially from mid afternoon through midnight. As a result, not
only will heavy rainfall cont to be an issue tonight, but also
the potential for convection to become severe with damaging winds
and a few tornadoes, some possibly significant. The main risk will
be along and south of the Ohio river late today and this evening,
esp east of a Murray to OWB line, where lifted indices have fallen
to -2 to -4 this afternoon.

Beyond midnight tonight as the surface low and front clear the area,
and precipitation chances should decrease quickly from west to
east. On Monday models still indicate plenty of 1000-850MB post
frontal moisture and cold air advection so will be difficult to
get rid of the low clouds...and possibly even some drizzle. Temps
may actually cont to fall slowly during the day Sunday.

Well above temperatures in the early periods of the forecast drop
off to below normal readings by the end of the period.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

There still remains a small signal for light snow late Wednesday
Night (Christmas evening) into early Thursday. However, the signal
has been somewhat sporadic and not consistent across the numerical
model suite. For now, a small chance (less than 20% chance) of light
snow has been kept in for the aforementioned time period. The
shortwave associated with this small chance of snow shifts northeast
into the Great Lakes area with dramatically weakening lift with time.

Each of the medium range guidance packages handle the shortwaves
rotating around the Canadian vortex in slightly different location
and timing. Given the high variability and low confidence in these
model solutions, a dry forecast was kept in place.

Went with the slight cooler bias of the Canadian/ECMWF, as well as
GFS MOS guidance for temperatures and dewpoints.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

The surface low is pushing northeast along the cold/stationary
front across west Kentucky and southwest Indiana early this
evening. As it passes, the front will surge eastward, and IFR
ceilings will filter in behind it. The primary convective line
will push east of KOWB by around 02Z, the steady rains will come
to an end of the from west to east at the TAF sites from 02Z to
05Z. Some lingering drizzle will be possible into the overnight
hours. IFR ceilings will persist into Sunday morning at all sites,
and some improvement to MVFR levels is expected by midday, except
possibly at KOWB. The ceilings will continue through the day.

Winds will shift to the north right behind the front, but will
settle in from the west southwest overnight. Some veering of the
winds to the northwest will be possible late in the afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-
     114.

IN...FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...Meffert
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...DRS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
733 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-221100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
733 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST
WITH SOME FLOODING LIKELY. REFER TO THE FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT FOR
DETAILS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE GENERALLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ALBION ILLINOIS TO POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM HICKMAN TO OWENSBORO KENTUCKY. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL NOT ONLY BE HEAVY RAINFALL
BUT ALSO DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LONG TRACK TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IN ADDITION...REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN AND/OR FLOODING ARE
APPRECIATED THROUGHOUT THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT.

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
811 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     HEAVY RAIN       BOONVILLE               38.05N 87.27W
12/21/2013  M5.00 INCH       WARRICK            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
814 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     TSTM WND GST     HOPKINSVILLE            36.85N 87.49W
12/21/2013  M58 MPH          CHRISTIAN          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HIGHWAY 68 WEST AND BYPASS.

&&

K. SMITH

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