Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
641 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2013

UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2013

ONGOING CONVECTION HAS QUIETED ATTM...HOWEVER...LAPS DATA DOES
SHOW SURFACE BASED CAPES RIDGING AT 3K PLUS J/KG ALONG OUR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN CWA BORDER...AS WELL AS JUST WEST OF THIS
MORNING'S CONVECTION ACROSS SCNTL MO. THE PROBLEM THERE IS THAT
THE SOUNDINGS FROM SGF/LZK SHOW A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT MAY CAP
CONVECTIVE CHANCES SOMEWHERE TO OUR WEST...THEN THE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ERODES AS YOU GO FURTHER EAST. HENCE THE JUST ISSUED
SVR TSM WATCH MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER. WILL CARRY POPS FA-WIDE
THOUGH...TAPERING FROM LOWEST WEST TO HIGHEST EAST. DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THRU DIURNAL HOURS WITH 10-20 MPH
AVERAGES AND SOME HIGHER GUSTS. HEAT INDEX OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE
AREAS ARE MEETING TRIPLE DIGITS AS EXPECTED SO OUR STATEMENT
HIGHLIGHTING HEAT INDEX LIKEWISE REMAINS IN EFFECT.

THE MESO-MODELING SUGGESTS A SLIGHT EASTWARD/SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN
MAX PCPN AREA BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE US ENTIRELY. BUT AFTER
TONIGHT...WE ANTICIPATE A DRY WINDOW THURSDAY AS FLOW BEGINS
TRANSITION TO NWLYS ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2013

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THIS FORECAST...THE ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE
THAT PLACED THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA INTO NORTHWEST FLOW HAS
ALREADY PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS FIXED ACROSS SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE
AREA...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST MO/EXTREME SOUTHERN IL/SOUTHWEST KY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT IN THE VICINITY OF
CHANNELED VORTICITY FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...KEPT A SMALL CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION IN PLACE. THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS PUSHED SOUTH
OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AROUND
THE MAIN CLOSED LOW IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL ACCESS ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO AT GENERATE A SMALL CHANCE OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST
AREA ON SUNDAY.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE MID-ATLANTIC HIGH BUILDS AND
THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE REMAINS FIXED...THE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES RETROGRADES AND DROPS SOUTH INTO THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW...LEANED TOWARD A BLEND
OF THE ECMWF/GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS WILL LEAD TOWARD A MORE
HOMOGENIZED POPS/WEATHER GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW
WITHIN OR NEAR THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE MORE NON-
DIURNAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AS THE LOW RESIDES WITHIN THE AREA
BETWEEN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.

ONE BENEFIT WILL BE LOWER THICKNESSES /LOWER TEMPERATURES/ DUE TO
INCREASE CLOUDS...RAIN CHANCES AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION GIVEN
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S /EVEN UPPER 70S AT SOME LOCATIONS SUNDAY/
THROUGH MONDAY...RETURNING TO THE 90S NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2013

OUTSIDE OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA BETWEEN 00-06Z AND MVFR FOG
BETWEEN 08-12Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY AOB 10 KTS WILL SLOWLY VEER AROUND
TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT...THEN PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 10-17 KTS
AFT 15Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MY
AVIATION...JP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1229 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2013

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-271000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1229 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM FOR
PORTIONS MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD EXPECTATION. HAIL...
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN MAY LIKEWISE ACCOMPANY STORMS. REFER TO
THE WATCH AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOKS FOR MORE DETAILS.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT TODAY AS IS THE EXPECTATION
FOR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES. REFER TO THE ADVISORY AND THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER PART OR ALL OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS
MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND LOCAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THURSDAY WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE 100 TO 105
DEGREE RANGE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION REQUESTED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372
MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY THROUGH 10 PM.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
852 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0851 PM     TSTM WND GST     SANTA CLAUS             38.12N 86.93W
06/26/2013  E60 MPH          SPENCER            IN   PUBLIC

&&

MY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
853 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2013

ILZ090-092>094-KYZ002>008-010>013-015>017-MOZ112-270230-
ALEXANDER IL-BALLARD KY-CALDWELL KY-CARLISLE KY-CHRISTIAN
KY-CRITTENDEN KY-GRAVES KY-HICKMAN KY-HOPKINS KY-LIVINGSTON KY-LYON
KY-MARSHALL KY-MASSAC IL-MCCRACKEN KY-MISSISSIPPI MO-POPE IL-PULASKI
IL-TRIGG KY-WEBSTER KY-
853 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ALEXANDER...
SOUTHERN PULASKI...SOUTHEASTERN POPE AND SOUTHERN MASSAC COUNTIES IN
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHWESTERN HOPKINS AND SOUTHWESTERN WEBSTER
COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...AND NORTHWESTERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND EXTREME NORTHERN HICKMAN...NORTHERN
GRAVES...SOUTHERN CRITTENDEN...CARLISLE...CALDWELL...BALLARD...
NORTHWESTERN TRIGG...MARSHALL...MCCRACKEN...LYON AND SOUTHERN
LIVINGSTON COUNTIES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

AT 850 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PROVIDENCE TO 6
MILES SOUTH OF MARION TO 8 MILES NORTH OF CALVERT CITY TO METROPOLIS
TO MOUNDS...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND
45 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LA CENTER...PADUCAH...LONE OAK...CALVERT CITY...WICKLIFFE...
  REIDLAND...EDDYVILLE...PRINCETON...DAWSON SPRINGS...BARDWELL...
  BENTON...BROOKPORT...CRESWELL...BARLOW...WEST PADUCAH...
  LEDBETTER...FARMERSVILLE...OLNEY...LOVELACEVILLE AND COBB.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
910 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GRANDVIEW               37.94N 86.98W
06/26/2013                   SPENCER            IN   PUBLIC

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN GRANDVIEW AND ROCKPORT

&&

MY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
921 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2013

KYZ005>009-011>013-016-017-021-022-270315-
CALDWELL KY-CALLOWAY KY-CHRISTIAN KY-GRAVES KY-HOPKINS KY-LIVINGSTON
KY-LYON KY-MARSHALL KY-MCCRACKEN KY-MUHLENBERG KY-TODD KY-TRIGG KY-
921 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HOPKINS COUNTY IN
NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...AND CHRISTIAN...NORTHERN TODD AND SOUTHERN
MUHLENBERG COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND NORTHEASTERN
GRAVES...NORTHERN CALLOWAY...SOUTHERN CALDWELL...TRIGG...MARSHALL...
SOUTHEASTERN MCCRACKEN...SOUTHERN LYON AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
LIVINGSTON COUNTIES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

AT 918 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MADISONVILLE TO 5
MILES SOUTHEAST OF EDDYVILLE TO LOVELACEVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GREENVILLE...BENTON...CADIZ...LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES AREA...
  HOPKINSVILLE...MORTONS GAP...NORTONVILLE...COBB...GRAHAM...
  POWDERLY...CROFTON...WEIR...ENERGY...DUNMOR...CANTON...PEMBROKE...
  ST. CHARLES...WHITE PLAINS...HAWKINS AND SYMSONIA.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

SMITH!

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