Flash Flood Warning 13, NWS Paducah, KY

581 
WGUS73 KPAH 171758
FFSPAH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1258 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

ILC003-MOC031-201-171815-
/O.CON.KPAH.FF.W.0013.000000T0000Z-130617T1815Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ALEXANDER IL-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-SCOTT MO-
1258 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN ALEXANDER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND NORTHERN
SCOTT AND CAPE GIRARDEAU COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

AT 1252 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED FLASH FLOODING AT 
THE INTERSECTION OF SOUTH KINGSHIGHWAY AND BLOOMFIELD ROAD IN CAPE 
GIRARDEAU. FLASH FLOODING WAS ALSO REPORTED IN OTHER LOCATIONS 
ACROSS THE CITY.

DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM 
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE TRAINING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RADAR 
ESTIMATED 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA 
OVER THE LAST 1 TO 2 HOURS.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE CAPE GIRARDEAU AND SCOTT CITY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 
WARNED AREA.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3707 8957 3716 8983 3752 8981 3753 8952
      3737 8942 3734 8944 3734 8948 3733 8940
      3718 8930

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
645 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

SHORT TERM WEATHER SOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE RATHER UNCLEAR MAINLY
DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES. SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING...AT THE SURFACE
THERE IS AN E-W STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF OUR
CWA...WE HAVE A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MULTIPLE RIPPLES OF
ENERGY UPSTREAM...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE HAS BROUGHT
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.

AS A RESULT...PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY AS
THE H5 ENERGY TAPS INTO THE MOISTURE AT HAND. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD
PEAK AREA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE
PULLS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE REGION. MODELS
APPEAR TO WASH FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUT AS IT APPROACHES...SO ITS HARD
TO SAY WHEN OR IF WE WILL HAVE A FROPA. EITHER WAY...PRECIP
CHANCES START TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

HOWEVER...WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE...MODELS ARE
CRANKING OUT A SMATTERING OF QPF ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION...SO
DECIDED TO KEEP POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. TUESDAY NIGHT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR THE WORK WEEK...BUT DECREASES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

THE RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS HAS MIGRATED EASTWARD MORE INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THUS MITIGATING POPS FOR THE WEEK AND
PUT THE WARM FRONT PASSAGE OFF UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHICH ORIGINALLY
WAS PROGGED FOR THURSDAY TWO DAYS PAST. THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE
INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN THE WORK WEEK AND DECREASED CERTAINTY FOR THE
WEEKEND. CONSIDERING THE AFOREMENTIONED OPTED TO LEAVE THE FORECAST
DRY. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE RUN AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR THE PAST FOUR OR FIVE DAYS. THIS WOULD PROBABLY ACCOUNT FOR
THE DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SCHEDULED FOR TODAY WHICH
FURTHER SUPPORTS THE EXTENDED STRATEGY. ONE THINGS THAT HAS REMAINED
CONSTANT IS THE WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED AFTER FROPA TODAY AND WE
CONTINUE TO EMBRACE THIS TREND WITH TEMPS HEADING TOWARD THE 90S AS
THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

MVFR VSBYS WITH BR THROUGH 14Z...VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH AT LEAST
00Z...POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRA THROUGH 06-07Z...THEN VFR.
WINDS VARIABLE AOB 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
842 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-181000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
840 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE QUAD STATE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND DIME TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

DETAILS ON AREA RIVER FLOODING CAN BE REFERENCED VIA THE LATEST
FLOOD STATEMENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

DETAILS ON AREA RIVER FLOODING CAN BE REFERENCED VIA THE LATEST
FLOOD STATEMENTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

MEFFERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1157 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

ILZ088-092-093-MOZ087-111-171730-
ALEXANDER IL-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-PULASKI IL-SCOTT MO-UNION IL-
1157 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALEXANDER...WESTERN UNION AND
WESTERN PULASKI COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SCOTT AND CAPE
GIRARDEAU COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI UNTIL 1230 PM CDT...

AT 1151 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM SCOTT CITY TO CHAFFEE...AND MOVING NORTH
AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SCOTT CITY...CHAFFEE...CAPE GIRARDEAU...JACKSON...TRAIL OF TEARS
STATE PARK...TAMMS...DUTCHTOWN...GORDONVILLE...MILL CREEK AND
POCAHONTAS.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

!