Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1207 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION ONLY.

&&

UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

JUST OVERHAULED THE GRIDS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL AND GUIDANCE TRENDS. MAIN ISSUES WERE TO HOLD OFF ON
BETTER POPS UNTIL MID AFTERNOON...AND TO FOCUS THEM MORE OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INITIALLY. ALSO KNOCKED DOWN POPS OVER THE
PENNYRILE...AS MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS THAT AREA DRY BUT FOR A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO ALL ELEMENTS TO BETTER FIT DEVELOPING FRONTAL ZONE
OVER THE REGION.

AFTER A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z MODELS...AM BEGINNING TO GET
CONCERNED FOR A WINTRY MESS OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS SUNDAY. NOT
SURE IF CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR A HEADLINE...BUT WILL AT
LEAST CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WHEN MAIN PACKAGE IS
ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

BUSY TIME FRAME WITH ALL TYPES OF WEATHER TO CONSIDER. FIRSTLY
WILL STATE THAT THE 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS CONT TO BE THE
CHOICE DUE TO RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN HOLDING ONTO PRECIP A BIT
LONGER THAN OTHER MODELS...WHICH MAKES SINCE UNTIL H50 FLOW CAN
BECOME MORE WRLY.

THAT SAID...SFC COLD FRONT WILL DIP SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND STALL UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT...WHEN A SFC LOW CAN WORK ITS WAY UP THE FRONT AND DRAW
THE FRONT SOUTHEAST OUT THE REGION. AGAIN...WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE
AND MID SUPPORT OVERRUNNING THE FRONT...SHOULD SEE PRECIP SHIELD
CONT TO DEVELOP BACK TO OUR SOUTHWEST IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT. IN FACT...DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED TOP SOIL OVER MOST
OF THE REGION...EITHER FROM MELTED SNOW PACK OR RECENT
RAINFALL...6 HR FLASH FOOD GUIDANCE IS RUNNING QUITE LOW AROUND 2
TO 2 AND A HALF INCHES. COULD CHALLENGE THESE NUMBERS...ESP ALONG
AND NORTHWEST OF THE OHIO RIVER/SFC FRONT LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT...THEN FARTHER S AND EAST SUNDAY AS THE
MOISTURE/FORCING SHIFTS EAST. THEREFORE...WILL NOT GET TOO
CUTE...AND INTRODUCE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
REGION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

A SECOND ASPECT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WITH ITS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. WE RARELY GET AWAY WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 60S IN
JAN WITHOUT PAYING FOR IT WITH SOME TYPE OF SEVERE WEATHER.
LUCKILY...OVERALL INSTABILITIES DO NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE DESPITE
THE DEW POINTS. STILL...MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO COMBINE WITH MID LEVEL
JET MAX EJECTING NE OUT OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF THIS EVENING TO
WARRANT AT LEAST SOME SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES FORM WILL ONLY SERVE TO LOCALLY INCREASE RAINFALL
TOTALS...THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH VS A FLOOD WATCH.

FINALLY...AS MUCH COLDER LOW LVL COLD AIR DIVES SE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY...THE REAR FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL LIKELY
CHANGE OVER TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AS IT ADVANCES
EAST DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW FREEZING OVER NW
AREAS OF THE REGION JUST AFTER SUNRISE...THEN AROUND NOON OR SO
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. COULD BE A QUICK TENTH OR TWO OF FREEZING
RAIN...MAINLY ALONG AND NW OF THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY...AS ECMWF
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 5000 FT TO 1200 FT LAYER WILL STAY ABOVE
FREEZING.

THING IS...ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SO WARM...THAT IT WILL
NEED TO GET VERY COLD VERY FAST FOR COMMERCE ISSUES. DO NOT THINK
THIS WILL BE THE CASE UNTIL PRECIP ENDS LATE SUNDAY...BUT A
COATING ON TREES/POWER LINES SEEMS A GREATER POSSIBILITY. THINK
OVERALL HIGHEST CHC FOR SUBSTANTIAL ICING OF ELEVATED SURFACES
WOULD BE ALONG/EAST OF THE WABASH RIVER VALLEY...ESP SW INDIANA.
WILL ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NOW...AND KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS ONE. OBVIOUSLY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LINGERING SNOW IN THE KHOP AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM APPEARS DRY WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY REBOUNDING
TO SEASONAL NORMS.

CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MOST OF THE LONG TERM. THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS THAT A SYSTEM IN
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST
KENTUCKY AND SE MISSOURI LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...MODEL
CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN VERY POOR. THERE IS STILL NOT ENOUGH OF A MODEL
SIGNAL TO ALTER THE DRY FORECAST.

COLD NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BACK INTO THE
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A SLOW WARMING TREND. FORECAST TEMPS
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS SHOWN BY EITHER 00Z GFS OR ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

THERE SHOULD BE A TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON IN THE ERN THIRD OF THE REGION...DUE TO MOST OF THE
INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING SFC TROF BEING WEST OF THERE.
OTHERWISE...LIFR AND WORSE CIGS IN THE WRN TWO THIRDS MAY IMPROVE
ONLY SOME WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER TODAY. LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST AREA MAY PEAK IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
WITH THE SFC TROF...THEN AGAIN IN THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
BEGINS ITS PUSH EWD THROUGH THE REGION. SE/SSE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN THE EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO THE NW NEAR OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT VSBYS TO BE QUITE VARIABLE UNTIL FROPA.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM....MY
AVIATION...DB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1056 AM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-131100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1056 AM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA BEGINNING AT 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE WATCH PRODUCT FOR DETAILS.

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW
BRIEF TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS...GENERALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...THE SOUTHERN TIP OF ILLINOIS AND THE PURCHASE
AREA OF WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER
TO THE WATCH PRODUCT FOR DETAILS.

A CHANGE FROM TO RAIN OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND/OR POSSIBLY A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE NOT LIKELY...BUT THEY CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER
IMPACTS MAY NOT BECOME OBVIOUS UNTIL A BIT LATER IN TIME. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ICE OR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL LIE ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE WABASH RIVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION CANNOT BE RULED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT...GENERALLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
ILLINOIS AND THE PURCHASE AREA OF WESTERN KENTUCKY. IN
ADDITION...SPOTTERS THROUGHOUT THE AREA SHOULD REPORT ANY HEAVY
RAINFALL OR FLOODING PROBLEMS THEY ENCOUNTER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY. REPORTS OF ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY
WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

DRS/GM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1242 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

KYZ001-002-121930-
FULTON KY-HICKMAN KY-
1242 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HICKMAN AND EASTERN FULTON
COUNTIES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY UNTIL 130 PM CST...

AT 1240 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CLAYTON...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF HICKMAN...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HICKMAN...CLINTON...CAYCE AND FULGHAM.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

DRS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
125 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

ILZ093-094-KYZ001>006-MOZ112-122015-
BALLARD KY-CARLISLE KY-FULTON KY-GRAVES KY-HICKMAN KY-MASSAC
IL-MCCRACKEN KY-MISSISSIPPI MO-PULASKI IL-
125 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN PULASKI AND MASSAC
COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND HICKMAN...NORTHWESTERN GRAVES...
CARLISLE...BALLARD...EASTERN FULTON AND MCCRACKEN COUNTIES IN WESTERN
KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
UNTIL 215 PM CST...

AT 122 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTH OF FULGHAM...OR 11 MILES WEST OF
MAYFIELD. THIS STORM WAS PART OF A CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT EXTENDED
BACK TO FULTON AND HICKMAN. ALL OF THE STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...LA CENTER...LONE OAK...PADUCAH...
  METROPOLIS...LOVELACEVILLE...BARLOW...WEST PADUCAH...BROOKPORT...
  KARNAK...NEW COLUMBIA...BLANDVILLE...LOWES...KEVIL...OLMSTED...NEW
  GRAND CHAIN AND JOPPA.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

DRS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
202 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

ILZ094-KYZ002-003-005-006-122100-
CARLISLE KY-GRAVES KY-HICKMAN KY-MASSAC IL-MCCRACKEN KY-
202 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSAC COUNTY IN
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEASTERN HICKMAN...NORTHWESTERN GRAVES...
EASTERN CARLISLE AND SOUTHEASTERN MCCRACKEN COUNTIES IN WESTERN
KENTUCKY UNTIL 300 PM CST...

AT 157 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF FULGHAM...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST
OF CLINTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM HAS BEEN
EXHIBITING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS
DURING THE PAST HALF HOUR. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY BE RAIN
WRAPPED...SO YOU MAY NOT SEE THE STRONG WINDS UNTIL THE STORM IS
ALMOST UPON YOU.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
FANCY FARM AROUND 210 PM CST.
LOWES AROUND 225 PM CST.
LONE OAK AROUND 245 PM CST.
PADUCAH AND REIDLAND AROUND 255 PM CST.
BROOKPORT AROUND 300 PM CST.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LONE OAK...PADUCAH...REIDLAND...BROOKPORT...FANCY FARM AND LOWES.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

IN ADDITION...THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR
LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
233 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HEAVY RAIN       PADUCAH                 37.07N 88.64W
01/12/2013  M1.40 INCH       MCCRACKEN          KY   ASOS

            HEAVY RAINFALL RECORDED AT PADUCAH ASOS.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
234 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HEAVY RAIN       PADUCAH                 37.07N 88.64W
01/12/2013  M1.40 INCH       MCCRACKEN          KY   ASOS

            HEAVY RAINFALL RECORDED AT PADUCAH ASOS. ACCUMULATION WAS
            40 MINUTES.

&&

SMITTY