Severe Thunderstorm Warning 621, NWS Norman, OK

506 
WWUS54 KOUN 080341
SVSOUN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1041 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

TXC155-080349-
/O.CAN.KOUN.SV.W.0621.000000T0000Z-130808T0400Z/
FOARD TX-
1041 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN FOARD COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THIS 
AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR FOARD COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3451 9972 3451 9967 3455 9967 3466 9950
      3385 9862 3384 9931 3402 9948 3407 9948
      3407 9953 3441 9986
TIME...MOT...LOC 0339Z 191DEG 11KT 3453 9961 3405 9908 

$$

OKC065-141-TXC197-485-487-080400-
/O.CON.KOUN.SV.W.0621.000000T0000Z-130808T0400Z/
TILLMAN OK-JACKSON OK-HARDEMAN TX-WICHITA TX-WILBARGER TX-
1041 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN TILLMAN...JACKSON...HARDEMAN...SOUTHWESTERN WICHITA
AND WILBARGER COUNTIES...

AT 1036 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4
MILES NORTHEAST OF ELDORADO TO 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HARROLD...MOVING 
NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR WELL IN ADVANCE OF 
THE THUNDERSTORMS THEMSELVES.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH... 
QUARTER SIZE HAIL...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VERNON...QUANAH...ELECTRA...MEDICINE MOUND...CHILLICOTHE...OLUSTEE...
ELDORADO...DAVIDSON...ELMER...HARROLD...OKLAUNION...LOCKETT...
ODELL...GRAYBACK...KAMAY...FARGO...RAYLAND AND HAYNESVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.
&&

LAT...LON 3451 9972 3451 9967 3455 9967 3466 9950
      3385 9862 3384 9931 3402 9948 3407 9948
      3407 9953 3441 9986
TIME...MOT...LOC 0336Z 191DEG 11KT 3453 9961 3405 9908 

$$
..SPEG.

572 
WWUS54 KOUN 080402
SVSOUN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1102 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

OKC065-141-TXC197-485-487-080410-
/O.EXP.KOUN.SV.W.0621.000000T0000Z-130808T0400Z/
TILLMAN OK-JACKSON OK-HARDEMAN TX-WICHITA TX-WILBARGER TX-
1102 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN TILLMAN...
JACKSON...HARDEMAN...SOUTHWESTERN WICHITA AND WILBARGER COUNTIES HAS
EXPIRED...
            
THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED 
SLIGHTLY... ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE STILL LIKELY 
WITH THESE STORMS. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH WILL STILL BE 
POSSIBLE SO REMAIN ALERT.

LAT...LON 3451 9972 3451 9967 3455 9967 3466 9950
      3385 9862 3384 9931 3402 9948 3407 9948
      3407 9953 3441 9986
TIME...MOT...LOC 0400Z 238DEG 14KT 3453 9961 3405 9908 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
639 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. BUT THE EXPECTED SCATTERED
NATURE OF THE STORMS COMPLICATE SPECIFIC FORECASTING AT TAF
SITES... ESPECIALLY IN THE FIRST 9 HOURS WHERE PROBABILITY IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP. BUT THERE ARE STORM CHANCES
EXIST EVEN AT TIMES WHEN THEY ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013/

DISCUSSION...
THE RAIN OUTLOOK FOR TONIGHT REMAINS QUITE UNCLEAR. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG A STALLED FRONT WOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS...BUT
COOLER SURFACE CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY HIGH CIN VALUES SUGGEST
THAT CONVECTION MAY HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT TIME GETTING STARTED.
CONVECTION IN THE HIGH PLAINS HAS STARTED ALREADY...AND THIS IS
MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS HAVE AT LEAST BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HANDLING THIS SET OF FEATURES...BRINGING A
SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX INTO NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH-
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN PART
OF OKLAHOMA AS LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OVER THE STALLED FRONT CONTINUES
INTO TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY TOMORROW NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE FRONT
IS THEN FORECAST TO ADVANCE INTO TEXAS...TAKING MOST OF THE RAIN
WITH IT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...BUT RENEWED CHANCES WILL OCCUR AT TIMES DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS VARIOUS WEAK WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR PART OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...DUE TO THE LOWER-THAN-ANTICIPATED APPARENT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  76  93  73  90 /  40  40  50  30
HOBART OK         72  96  73  91 /  30  40  50  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  76 101  76  98 /  30  30  40  30
GAGE OK           69  83  67  81 /  50  50  40  20
PONCA CITY OK     73  85  70  85 /  60  70  50  30
DURANT OK         78  99  73  99 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ020-026-030>032-037-
     039>048-050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ085>090.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
855 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-081000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
855 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN-HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE RISK AREA COVERS LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE-40.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTER
10 PM.

IMPACTS...
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
THE RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DISCUSSION...
NUMEROUS STORMS OVER THE PANHANDLES ARE EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE
INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS AND MOVE EASTWARD LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY AREAS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED WILL BE
FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING WOODWARD...
ALVA...ENID...AND PONCA CITY. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH
TOWARD THE INTERSTATE-40 CORRIDOR SHOULD NOT LET THEIR GUARD
DOWN. ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STORMS...A FEW STORMS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY AUG 8.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS
IN THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MAINLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. PLEASE TAKE STEPS
TO PREVENT HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 5 AM
THURSDAY.