Severe Thunderstorm Warning 565, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
313 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT MUDDLED THIS PERIOD. WE CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE MODERATE MID LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT...APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING...IN ADDITION TO SEVERAL WEAK SFC
BOUNDARIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 9 PM. EXPECT THE STRONGER
STORMS TO CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...BUT SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE UNLIKELY. SHOULD A SEVERE WIND GUST OCCUR...IT WOULD BE
MOST LIKELY OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...WHERE LARGER TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE APPARENT FROM
RECENT MESONET OBS.

HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD
PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY...AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS THAN
TODAY.

ALTHOUGH HOT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...HEAT INDICES LOOK TO REMAIN MARGINAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THUS...HAVE OPTED TO DROP THE HEAT ADVISORY THAT WAS IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHERN/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. STILL...PERSONS ARE ENCOURAGED TO FOLLOW HEAT SAFETY
GUIDELINES AS VERY HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FROM TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. BY THAT TIME...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
SHOWING A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW. THIS LOW WILL ORIGINATE IN THE
NORTHEAST...AND MOVE RELATIVELY QUICKLY WESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR FALLING HEIGHTS FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE
COMING WEEK...AND RESULT IN INCREASED RAIN CHANCES OVER MOST OF
THE AREA. FOR NOW...WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING
SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS STILL
RELATIVELY LOW REGARDING THIS SCENARIO...AS WESTWARD PROPAGATING
UPPER LOWS OF THIS MAGNITUDE ARE FAIRLY UNCOMMON. STILL...WITH
ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND BROAD BUT PRESENT UPPER
FORCING...EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT SOME BENEFICIAL RAIN WILL ARRIVE
BY NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO PUT A DING IN AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WHICH SHOULD FALL FROM NEAR 100 OVER THE WEEKEND...TO NEAR
90 FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

BEYOND TUESDAY...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE BECOMES VERY UNCLEAR WITH
RESPECT TO THE WESTWARD MOVING LOW. THUS...WILL REMOVE POPS FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD AND KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMO FOR MID JULY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  96  74  95 /  20   0   0   0
HOBART OK         76 103  76 101 /  30   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  77 102  77 101 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73  99  74  99 /  20   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     72  97  74  96 /  40   0   0  10
DURANT OK         76  98  72  96 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

06/84

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
331 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-121000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
331 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO MAY OCCUR...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WEAK...STRONG HEATING AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARIES HAS ALLOWED WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK AND ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
TO NEAR 60 MPH ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

STORMS WILL DIMINISH BY 10 PM WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING
LOW LEVEL STABILITY.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY JUL 12.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...15 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HOT WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE HEAT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN CANCELLED...WE ENCOURAGE YOU TO FOLLOW HEAT SAFETY GUIDELINES
TO PREVENT HEAT RELATED ILLNESS AND INJURY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AND SATURDAY...WITH LOW THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURNING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STORM CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN LOW.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HOT AND MUGGY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
STEPS SHOULD BE TAKEN IN ORDER TO MINIMIZE THE ADVERSE HEALTH EFFECTS
OF THE HEAT. TRY TO LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...DRINK PLENTY OF WATER. IF OUTSIDE TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN
THE SHADE...AND USE SUNSCREEN. IT IS ALSO ADVISED TO MAKE SURE OUTDOOR
PETS HAVE ACCESS TO SHADE AND FRESH WATER.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
5 AM FRIDAY.

AUSTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

OKZ048-052-112115-
BRYAN OK-ATOKA OK-
335 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BRYAN AND SOUTHERN
ATOKA COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 335 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF LANE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LANE AND BENTLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3416 9583 3415 9596 3412 9594 3402 9593
      3398 9597 3417 9621 3433 9595 3420 9579
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 43DEG 8KT 3422 9593

MBS

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