Severe Thunderstorm Warning 552, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
229 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...
A QLCS/SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY S/SEWRD ACROSS OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. ON ITS
PRESENT TIMING/TRACK...THE QLCS WILL REACH THE OKC METRO BETWEEN
0230 AND 0300 AM CDT. THE OVERALL LINE OF CONVECTION IS FAIRLY
VAST...EXTENDING FROM JUST S OF AMARILLO OFF THE CAPROCK...EWD TO I-
40 ALONG THE OK/TX BORDER...NE THROUGH PONCA CITY...AND N INTO SRN
KS. MESONET OBS ALONG THE PATH HAVE CONTINUED TO REPORT 45 TO 55 MPH
WINDS ALONG THE LINE...HOWEVER...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE...AND CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. GIVEN ITS
OVERNIGHT HOURS...REPORTS HAVE BEEN SPARSE...BUT THERE WAS A REPORT
OF POWERLINES KNOCKED DOWN IN THE TOWN JET IN ALFALFA COUNTY AS THE
LINE MOVED THROUGH.

EXPECT THE QLCS TO CONTINUE ITS MOVEMENT S/SE AT 35 TO 40 KTS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. DECENT OVERALL CONDITIONS EXIST FOR MCS
MAINTENANCE...WITH GOOD SHEAR/COLD POOL BALANCE WITH 0-3KM SHEAR 0F
20 TO 35 KTS AND MUCAPES 1900 TO 2800 J/KG. THE N/NERN PORTION OF
THE LINE AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL OK WILL BE THE SECTION TO WATCH
AS CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR WINDS GREATER THAN 60 MPH.
SFC-600MB THETA E DIFFS WILL BE 20 TO 25 K...WITH THE BEST POCKET OF
MUCAPES RESIDING SWRN THROUGH CENTRAL OK.

AS THE LINE APPROACHES THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH DAWN...IT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH SOUTHERN OK.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...KEEPING A SFC TROUGH
ORIENTED NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

AS THE RIDGE FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...INTO THE WEEKEND.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  86  69  83  70 /  60  40  40  40
HOBART OK         93  68  87  68 /  40  60  30  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  94  72  88  72 /  60  50  40  50
GAGE OK           87  64  84  64 /  30  40  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     85  66  84  66 /  50  40  30  20
DURANT OK         90  71  86  70 /  60  50  50  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

11/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
125 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-171730-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
125 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF PONCA CITY...ENID...WATONGA AND ELK CITY.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY.

IMPACTS...
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...
WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD PLAN
FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DISCUSSION...
A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH QUICKLY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN...
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT.  FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED AS LINE MOVES SOUTHEAST WITH EMBEDDED GUSTS TO 65 MPH.
SOME HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS MAY ALSO OCCUR.  THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE
STORMS MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL OF FLOODING...BUT SOME CREEKS AND STREAMS
IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MAY SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES.

BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THE LINE OF STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY JUN 17.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80  PERCENT

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
FOR THE REMAINDER THE WEEK...A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING A VARIOUS
TIMES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING AND
URBANIZED AREAS.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 5
AM MONDAY MORNING...OR AS UPDATES ARE NEEDED.

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