Severe Thunderstorm Warning 528, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
220 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE STORM/HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BASED ON LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE HRRR...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF I-40 BY
4 PM...THEN CONGEAL INTO A LINE OR CLUSTER AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST
AND AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTH HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA WILL BE MOST AFFECTED BETWEEN
4 AND 7 PM. WICHITA FALLS MAY BE AFFECTED 9 TO 11 PM. INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES FOR THESE AREAS.

SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING WIND UP
TO 70 MPH...LARGE HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLARS...AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL OF 1-3 INCHES IN 1-2 HOURS WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING. DID NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER THE LAST SEVEN DAYS HAVE NOT BEEN TOO HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD
ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING OF THE GROUND. TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS
VERY LOW THROUGH TONIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT IF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WILL
OCCUR DUE TO MARGINAL SHEAR.

LATER TONIGHT...ANOTHER LINE OR CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHTLY
LESS DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT...THOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. THIS LINE MAY ENTER FAR
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM. THIS LINE MAY WEAKEN
AS IT GETS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-40 AS THE FIRST LINE/CLUSTER
OF STORMS MAY STABILIZE THE AIR.

MONDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY NEAR AND EAST
OF I-35 DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS WHERE BEST HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ARE EXPECTED.
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND...HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
THAT ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...BUT
NOT CONFIDENT THIS WILL OCCUR.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE OVER THE AREA...
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS
WITH STORMS.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS MID LEVEL CAPPING INCREASES.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...HOT AND RAINFREE WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL LIKELY RETURN TO
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
HEAT INDICES MAY BE NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL OF 105 DEGREES.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  86  70  84 /  70  60  30  30
HOBART OK         70  93  68  88 /  70  30  50  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  95  71  88 /  70  40  40  40
GAGE OK           65  88  65  84 /  80  30  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     66  85  66  85 /  80  60  20  20
DURANT OK         71  90  71  87 /  60  50  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

03/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-171730-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1228 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM WICHITA
FALLS TEXAS TO SEMINOLE OKLAHOMA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM 4 PM THROUGH
6 AM.

IMPACTS...
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 70 MPH...AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH A THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS OVER 70 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS.

LATER THIS EVENING MAINLY AFTER 7 PM...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY MERGE AND DEVELOP
INTO A COMPLEX. THIS COMPLEX MAY THEN MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. ANOTHER COMPLEX MAY THEN DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AROUND
MIDNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...AND
MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS...SMALL
HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THESE
COMPLEXES.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY JUN 17.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80 PERCENT

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND FLOODING
OF CREEKS AND STREAMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING AS THE COMPLEX FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT TRACKS SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

FOR THE REMAINDER THE WEEK...A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING A VARIOUS
TIMES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING AND
URBANIZED AREAS.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 5
AM MONDAY MORNING...OR AS UPDATES ARE NEEDED.

BARNES/KURTZ

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