Severe Thunderstorm Warning 365, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
628 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A VERY SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT HAS LIT UP WITH CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...AND THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ALONG THE
FRONT ALL DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THE FRONT...AND THE AREA OF
STORMS...SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SE THE REST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...SOME
NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS MORNING. IN
ANY CASE...TSRA SHOULD REMAIN S OF KPNC...KGAG...AND KWWR. THE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SE OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...LEAVING CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AT MOST SITES.
RECENT RAINS SUGGEST THAT SOME BR IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY TOWARD
SUNRISE AT ALL BUT OUR WESTERN SITES. WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO S
OVERNIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY MODEL DIVERGENCE AND PERIODIC CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LEAD
TO A VERY LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AFTER SATURDAY.

THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE STORM SYSTEM THAT HAS PLAGUED OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS WITH SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH PRIMARY EMPHASIS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OKLAHOMA...AND NORTH TEXAS FROM WICHITA
FALLS EAST.

THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE
FARTHER SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY...REDUCING THE CHANCES FOR STORMS FOR
A DAY OR TWO.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMTH AND MOISTURE BACK INTO NORTH
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA LATE THIS WEEK. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SERIES
OF CHANCES FOR RAIN AS A LONG PARADE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ANCHORED OVER
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. EVEN IF THE MODEL FORECASTS WERE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT...THE TIMING OF SUCH WAVES IS DIFFICULT IN THIS TIME
FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  55  80  61 /  60  10  10  20
HOBART OK         78  54  87  61 /  40  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  81  57  89  64 /  60  10  10  10
GAGE OK           81  51  85  56 /  10  10  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     77  53  79  57 /  20  10  10  20
DURANT OK         82  60  85  64 /  80  40  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

17/23/23

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
858 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

OKZ033-034-036-TXZ083-211445-
HARMON OK-GREER OK-JACKSON OK-HARDEMAN TX-
858 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARMON...CENTRAL GREER...WESTERN
JACKSON AND NORTHERN HARDEMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 945 AM CDT...

AT 854 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
4 MILES WEST OF DODSON TO 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF TELL...MOVING EAST AT
50 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
HEAVY RAINFALL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LAT...LON 3490 10000 3507 9947 3441 9963 3438 9999
TIME...MOT...LOC 1354Z 253DEG 45KT 3477 10009 3441 10035

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
924 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

OKZ025-028-029-211500-
OKLAHOMA OK-MCCLAIN OK-CLEVELAND OK-
924 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...MCCLAIN AND
CLEVELAND COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 AM CDT...

AT 920 AM CDT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR NEWCASTLE
AND MOORE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. OTHER STORMS WERE DEVELOPING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT AREAS
ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 10 AM AND NOON. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH HAIL
TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3489 9717 3489 9764 3550 9764 3559 9721
TIME...MOT...LOC 1420Z 240DEG 49KT 3531 9747

30

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
950 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

OKZ033-036-TXZ083>085-211530-
HARMON OK-JACKSON OK-WILBARGER TX-HARDEMAN TX-FOARD TX-
950 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HARMON...CENTRAL
JACKSON...WESTERN WILBARGER...HARDEMAN AND FOARD COUNTIES UNTIL 1030
AM CDT...

AT 947 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
7 MILES NORTHEAST OF KIRKLAND TO 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HACKBERRY...
MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LAT...LON 3424 10003 3424 10001 3423 10000 3459 10000
      3468 9933 3385 9940 3384 10004
TIME...MOT...LOC 1447Z 265DEG 39KT 3449 10000 3390 10010