Severe Thunderstorm Warning 263, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
225 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...
STAGE STILL APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR A VERY BUSY FEW DAYS
WRT SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. LARGE
SCALE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BRING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MAIN TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

FOR TODAY... CAPPING INVERSION HAS HELD THINGS IN CHECK... BUT
MIDDAY SOUNDING ACROSS THE AREA SHOW ONLY MINIMAL CAP STILL
REMAINING. EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING
WIND FIELDS... SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY WITH THE
MAIN SFC BOUNDARIES RESIDING FARTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST IN THE
MAIN BODY OF THE STATE WITH AFTN STORMS DEVELOPING IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND MORE LIKELY AFFECTING CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA. AGAIN INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS WILL BE VERY
FAVORABLE FOR HIGH END SEVERE STORMS.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SFC
BOUNDARIES DOWN AND KEEP MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA IN
THE RISK ON MONDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. THE PARTICULARS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DEPENDENT ON
WHAT HAPPENS THE DAY/NIGHT BEFORE.

OTHERWISE VERY WARM/HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE THE SFC FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE AREA WITH
SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKING INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  90  66  87 /  30  30  50  50
HOBART OK         69  95  63  94 /  30  20  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  98  67  97 /  30  20  20  20
GAGE OK           61  88  56  84 /  30  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  64  84 /  30  50  60  50
DURANT OK         69  88  71  88 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

26/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1219 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-191000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1219 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...AND A SLIGHT RISK THAT INCLUDES
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...WEST AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR CHEROKEE...TO WATONGA...TO WEATHERFORD...
TO ELK CITY. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDES MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE
FROM CHANDLER... TO SULPHUR...TO MARIETTA INCLUDING ALL OF WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 4 PM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
LARGE DAMAGING HAIL LARGER THAN BASEBALLS MAY CREATE DAMAGE TO CROPS..
ROOFS AND CARS. DAMAGING WINDS MAY DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES AND DAMAGE
STRUCTURES. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
A DRYLINE WILL LIE ALONG THE BORDER BETWEEN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE...PLUS LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE...WILL HELP GENERATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODERATE
TO STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS VERY FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA...CONDITIONS WILL
SUPPORT A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME LESS NUMEROUS AFTER MIDNIGHT
REDUCING THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY MAY 19.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
AN ELEVATED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LOW AFTER TUESDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
SUNDAY.

CMS/30/26

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