Severe Thunderstorm Warning 239, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1033 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX FORECAST FOR TODAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SW OK THIS
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A COUPLE OF VORT MAXIMA
SWING NORTH/NEWARD AHEAD OF IT...SPECIFICALLY ACROSS THE SE AND
SOUTH CENTRAL FA. INCREASED POPS ACROSS THESE REGIONS AS MOIST
CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR BOTH AREAS. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A DRYLINE. POCKETS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. NUDGED
TEMPS AND SKY A BIT GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...BUT NO OTHER SIG
CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

AVIATION...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TODAY.
LAW/SPS/OUN/OKC SHOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE VFR TO MFVR RANGE WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF IFR CEILINGS MAINLY AFTER 6Z THURSDAY IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER MEXICO...WILL
LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TODAY. LOWER
60 DEWPOINTS HAVE RETURNED TO FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALL AREAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN TODAY...HEATING AND
LIFT FROM APPROACHING LOW SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WILL PLACE
HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) ACROSS SOUTHEAST 1/4 OF FA WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN...LOWER 8H TEMPS...AND BETTER UPPER JET STRUCTURE
WILL BE.

UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF OKLAHOMA EARLY THURSDAY
BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT RICHER GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH EASTWARD AND BETTER INFLUENCE FROM THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL
AS A STRENGTHENING CAP.

BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL COME TOGETHER
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH APPROACHES. CAPPING MAY BE
AN ISSUE ON SATURDAY BUT STRONG HEATING AND A DRYLINE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL
BE SEVERE (MAINLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA/WESTERN NORTH TEXAS). DEEPENING
ON STORM COVERAGE SOME STORMS MAY REACH CENTRAL PARTS OF OKLAHOMA.

MORE ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ON TAP FOR SUNDAY AND
AGAIN ON MONDAY AS STRONGER FLOW DIGS ACROSS THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
AND A RISK OF TORNADOES EACH DAY.

A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE MAY ALSO BRING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA. STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TUESDAY WITH
A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  64  80  66 /  50  50  10  10
HOBART OK         83  62  83  65 /  20  30  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  85  65  85  65 /  60  40  10  10
GAGE OK           88  58  84  65 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     83  62  82  67 /  30  30  10  30
DURANT OK         76  62  79  67 /  60  60  40  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

25/16

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1158 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-161700-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1158 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MAIN RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM
4 PM TO 10 PM.

IMPACTS...
THE MAIN THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 70 MPH...ALTHOUGH
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN THE
RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
AS A LARGE WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO NORTHERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THE
CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LOW.

DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...A DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN JUST
WEST OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ISOLATED OR SCATTERED
STORMS MAY FORM JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND MOVE IN A EAST
AND SOUTHEAST DIRECTION IMPACTING WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY MAY 16.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...70 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WEDNESDAY EVENING MAY CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL RETURN SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA NEAR A DRYLINE. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE SATURDAY.

GREATER INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
5 AM THURSDAY MORNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1252 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

OKZ045-151830-
JEFFERSON OK-
1252 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY UNTIL 130 PM
CDT...

AT 1247 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR RYAN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3401 9797 3428 9779 3428 9756 3395 9789
TIME...MOT...LOC 1747Z 215DEG 24KT 3402 9790

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
141 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

OKZ030-151915-
POTTAWATOMIE OK-
141 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY
UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

AT 139 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TECUMSEH...
MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...

LAT...LON 3518 9692 3519 9707 3546 9707 3546 9678
TIME...MOT...LOC 1839Z 188DEG 23KT 3526 9699

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
152 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

OKZ038-039-044-045-151915-
COTTON OK-JEFFERSON OK-STEPHENS OK-COMANCHE OK-
152 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN COTTON...NORTHWESTERN
JEFFERSON...SOUTHWESTERN STEPHENS AND SOUTHEASTERN COMANCHE COUNTIES
UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

AT 151 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TEMPLE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...

LAT...LON 3417 9838 3457 9823 3446 9788 3413 9818
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 218DEG 26KT 3431 9823

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
155 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

OKZ040-041-151930-
GARVIN OK-MURRAY OK-
155 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN GARVIN AND NORTHWESTERN
MURRAY COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

AT 151 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DAVIS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...

LAT...LON 3447 9731 3479 9714 3474 9693 3440 9713
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 210DEG 21KT 3450 9718

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
212 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

OKZ039-040-046-151945-
GARVIN OK-STEPHENS OK-CARTER OK-
212 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN GARVIN...EASTERN
STEPHENS AND NORTHWESTERN CARTER COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 208 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR RATLIFF
CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...

LAT...LON 3444 9767 3476 9747 3459 9721 3450 9733
      3451 9735 3449 9735 3434 9755
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 217DEG 24KT 3444 9757