Severe Thunderstorm Warning 236, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
619 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

.AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF OK AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. SHOWERS/STORMS MAY
LINGER INTO FRI AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BUT CHANCES TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THE TAF.
STRONG AND VARIABLE WINDS AND HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH/NEAR ANY
OF THE STORMS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013/

DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX WEATHER FORECAST THIS EVENING. MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES ARE IN
THE AREA AND CLOUDINESS HAS LIMITED WARMING. BUT MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS INSTABILITY HAS BEEN INCREASING AND CIN WEAKENING. 12Z OUN
SOUNDING SHOWED IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH WARMING TO ELIMINATE THE
CIN. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WAVE
MOVING THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND BEGINNING TO ENHANCE LIFT. OVERALL
RESULT SHOULD BE SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INSTABILITY IS HIGH ENOUGH THAT SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE. STORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  76  51  73 /  50  20  10  10
HOBART OK         54  75  50  76 /  50  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  55  78  53  79 /  40  30  10  10
GAGE OK           49  71  48  74 /  30  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     56  73  50  74 /  50  20  10  20
DURANT OK         58  79  55  78 /  40  30  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

25/25/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-100000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1155 AM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HOLLIS TO ELK CITY
TO TALOGA TO MEDFORD.

TIMING...2 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT

HAZARDS...LARGE HAIL TO BASEBALL DIAMETER...DAMAGING WIND...ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A
SLOWLY-MOVING COLD FRONT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...AND SURFACE HEATING
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY...WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL
THEN SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WITH MANY OF THE STORMS. SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES ARE EXPECTED IN SOME CASES...AND TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH THESE
STORMS...WHICH WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITHIN
SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

PROBABILITY TABLE...VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY MAY 9.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND. NONE ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SEVERE.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 5 AM FRIDAY.

CMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
556 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

OKZ035-092330-
KIOWA OK-
556 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN KIOWA COUNTY UNTIL
630 PM CDT...

AT 551 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
4 MILES SOUTH OF CARNEGIE TO 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF COOPERTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3504 9897 3512 9863 3510 9862 3501 9862
      3501 9861 3495 9862 3484 9896
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 237DEG 10KT 3504 9863 3493 9893

..SPEG.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>