Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1120 AM CST SAT MAR 9 2013

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAS LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MVFR AND SOME IFR CEILINGS
THIS MORNING. EXPECT CEILINGS ACROSS WEST TO DISSIPATE RIGHT AROUND
OR JUST AFTER ISSUANCE. FARTHER EAST THEY SHOULD REMAIN IN MVFR CAT
WITH A FEW HOURS OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY EVEN STRONGER
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH. LOWER MVFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO REDEVELOP BEHIND COLD
FRONT LATE TONIGHT.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CST SAT MAR 9 2013/

.UPDATE...
A NARROW BAND OF MOIST CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SHIFTING
EAST...AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN CO THIS
EVENING. CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...ALTHOUGH SOME POCKETS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE RED
RIVER...WESTERN N TX...AND PORTIONS OF SE OK LATER TODAY (VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF CLEARING ACROSS THIS AREA). THIS IS
WHERE SOME SEVERE CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE MAIN THREATS
BEING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END
FOR MOST OF THE REGION WEST TO EAST LATER. MAXTS WERE LOWERED FOR
MOST LOCATIONS CONSIDERING CURRENT TRENDS...AND POPS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY.

BARNES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  41  47  26 /  70  20  10   0
HOBART OK         67  36  48  23 /  70  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  43  54  29 /  60  10  10   0
GAGE OK           64  32  44  18 /  40  20  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  39  45  24 /  80  20  20  10
DURANT OK         64  51  59  32 /  80  80  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ006>008-
     011>013-017>020-023>025-027>029-038-044.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ004-005-009-010-
     014>016-021-022-033>037.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ083>089.

&&

30/03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1204 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-101815-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1204 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA EXTENDS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR
SHAWNEE...TO PAULS VALLEY...TO ARCHER CITY.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FROM 1 TO 9 PM.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
INSTABILITY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY NEAR THE
RED RIVER AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS IS
WHERE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE INTERSECTION. LARGE HAIL...UP TO THE SIZE
OF HALF DOLLARS...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS. HOWEVER...TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR THE RED RIVER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST SUNDAY MAR 10.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...70 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS NEARING 50 MPH CAN BE
ANTICIPATED. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
RAIN AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
EXITS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A RAIN SNOW MIX WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AS COLDER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ON
SUNDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH...GUSTING UP TO 50 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. IN RESPONSE...FIRE DANGER WILL
BE ELEVATED ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ON
SUNDAY.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 5
AM SUNDAY.

BARNES/KURTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
100 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013

OKZ023-024-027-038-039-044-091930-
COTTON OK-CADDO OK-GRADY OK-CANADIAN OK-STEPHENS OK-COMANCHE OK-
100 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN COTTON...
SOUTHEASTERN CADDO...GRADY...SOUTHERN CANADIAN...NORTHWESTERN
STEPHENS AND EASTERN COMANCHE COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM CST...

AT 1255 PM CST...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM BINGER TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ANADARKO TO LAWTON TO 3 MILES
WEST OF COOKIETOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAWTON...DUNCAN...CHICKASHA...ANADARKO...MARLOW...TUTTLE...WALTERS...
MINCO...APACHE...COMANCHE...UNION CITY...RUSH SPRINGS...ELGIN...
CYRIL...BRAY...FLETCHER...NINNEKAH...GERONIMO...STERLING AND EMPIRE
CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3543 9832 3550 9775 3442 9772 3422 9855
TIME...MOT...LOC 1855Z 225DEG 37KT 3529 9831 3501 9834 3461 9841
3429 9851

30

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