Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
616 PM CDT MON APR 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IN KS WILL SWEEP SE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A VARIETY OF ADVERSE WEATHER. SCT
+TSRA...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE...WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE N 1/3 OF OK...THIS EVENING. LOW CEILINGS
AND -RA WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOME PL WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN NW OK LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. SOME BRIEF FZDZ
OR FZRA WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY IN THESE AREAS...BUT PL WILL
LIKELY DOMINATE AS THE LOW-LEVEL...BUT ABOVE GROUND...TEMPERATURE
FALLS RAPIDLY BELOW FREEZING. LITTLE OR NO IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS IFR OR LOW MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE COLD AND MOIST AIRMASS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 PM CDT MON APR 22 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES THE COLD FRONT STILL WELL
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...FROM NEAR SWRN IA THROUGH NWRN
KS...NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW...ERN CO/WRN KS. A FAIRLY STOUT
500MB SHRTWV TROUGH WELL DEFINED ON WV IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE TO
SWING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
IN RESPONSE...THE COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING. TIMING OF THE FRONT REACHING NWRN OK STILL APPEARS TO
BE AROUND/NEAR 23/00Z.

AS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED WITH PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WEAK TO
MODEST. THIS IS DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN/FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. AT 1830Z...UP STREAM DEWPOINTS FROM THE TX GULF COAST WERE
ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE OK/KS
BORDER. HOWEVER...DYNAMICALLY...WIND FIELDS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION...ALONG WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NWRN
AND NRN/CTRL OK. PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. LARGE HAIL WILL ESPECIALLY BE A CONCERN IF THE FRONT
CRASHES HARD TO THE SOUTH...WITH STORMS MIGRATING BEHIND THE
LEADING EDGE/INTO THE COLD SECTOR.

THE SECONDARY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WINTRY PRECIP AND
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES SPREADING FROM THE NW TO THE SE ACROSS THE
REGION. FZRA/SLEET/SN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH DAY BREAK
ACROSS NWRN OK. AT THE MOMENT...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS AS MOISTURE AND COVERAGE REMAIN LIMITED. HOWEVER...SOME
SECONDARY ROADS MAY BECOME SLICK.

WITH SUCH UNSEASONABLE COLD TEMPERATURES...THIS WILL BE ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT EARLY SPRING FREEZE EVENT...PERHAPS RECORD SETTING. WILL
ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FROM 23/08Z-23/15Z FOR COUNTIES ACROSS NWRN
OK AS MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S. THIS AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
FORECAST HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S FROM CENTRAL OK TO NRN OK...THE
RECORD LOW HIGH FOR TUESDAY AT OKC WILL LIKELY BE IN JEOPARDY.

RECORD LOWS WILL BE IN JEOPARDY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS FREEZING TEMPS
SPREAD AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-40/I-44 CORRIDOR...INCLUDING THE OKC
METRO.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  41  31  58 /  70  40  10  10
HOBART OK         35  44  29  58 /  40  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  50  33  60 /  20  30  10  10
GAGE OK           28  40  25  59 /  70  30  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     35  41  29  59 / 100  50  10  10
DURANT OK         56  61  35  61 /  20  40  40  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ004>007-
     009>012-014>017-021-022.

TX...NONE.
&&

25/23/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
647 PM CDT MON APR 22 2013

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-231000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
647 PM CDT MON APR 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ELK CITY TO
ANADARKO...TO MOORE...TO SHAWNEE OKLAHOMA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT...BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS OVERNIGHT. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OKLAHOMA... THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WILL DEVELOP BOTH ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR
WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS... WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER THIS
EVENING AS A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
REMAINS IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THREAT OF SEVERE
STORMS TO CONTINUE WELL AFTER DARK. HOWEVER... THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
GENERALLY DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...AS WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACTS TO SLOWLY STABILIZE THE AIRMASS OVER OKLAHOMA. STILL...A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY APR 23.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
AS A VERY COLD AIRMASS MOVES INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BEHIND THE FRONT...
SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. A MIX OF RAIN, SNOW,
AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHEYENNE...TO
ENID...TO BLACKWELL. NO ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST...AND LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN PARTS OF
NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY MORNING. A FREEZE WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG...
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THIS ACTIVITY WILL END FROM
WEST TO EAST.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. WITH AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY
AND FAVORABLE UPPER WINDS...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL AFFECT PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND FREEZE AND OR HARD FREEZE
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
5 AM TUESDAY...WITH UPDATES AS NEEDED.

AUSTIN/II/MAXWELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
710 PM CDT MON APR 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0704 PM     HAIL             2 S DRIFTWOOD           36.85N 98.36W
04/22/2013  E2.00 INCH       ALFALFA            OK   PUBLIC

&&

JPIKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
733 PM CDT MON APR 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0733 PM     HAIL             10 W ARNETT             36.14N 99.95W
04/22/2013  E1.00 INCH       ELLIS              OK   PUBLIC

&&

JPIKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
823 PM CDT MON APR 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0821 PM     HAIL             3 SW LAMBERT            36.65N 98.46W
04/22/2013  E1.25 INCH       ALFALFA            OK   PUBLIC

&&

JPIKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
825 PM CDT MON APR 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             5 WSW ARNETT            36.11N 99.85W
04/22/2013  M2.50 INCH       ELLIS              OK   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

BTS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
827 PM CDT MON APR 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     HAIL             8 S HARMON              36.03N 99.56W
04/22/2013  E1.00 INCH       ELLIS              OK   PUBLIC

&&

JPIKE

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