River Flood Warning 8, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
637 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

.AVIATION...00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
LARGE AND DANGEROUS SUPERCELL PRODUCING A LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
TORNADO WILL LIKELY PASS JUST NORTH/NORTHWEST OF KOKC...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALL AIRFIELDS ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. CEILINGS WILL VARY FROM IFR TO
MVFR WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ALL DIRECTIONS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. AIRFIELDS IN WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL
LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013/

UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS/WX...

DISCUSSION...
WITH STORMS FINALLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WEST OF THE METRO...UPDATED POPS AND WX THROUGH
12Z. SHOULD SEE THIS LINE SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING. BESIDES SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...DAMAGING
HAIL...WINDS...AND TORNADOES...THE SLOW NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN AN INCREASED FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD RISK THROUGH THE
EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN ATTENTION THIS AFTERNOON IS ON THE IMMINENT SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT. FOR THE GENERAL FORECAST...ONLY A FEW CHANGES WERE MADE AS
COMPARED WITH THE FORECAST ISSUED THIS MORNING. RAIN CHANCES AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WERE REFINED
SLIGHTLY...BASED ON THE LATEST EXPECTATIONS.

THE GENERAL SITUATION BEGINS WITH A HIGHLY VOLATILE ATMOSPHERE
THIS EVENING. WE EXPECT SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN CONVERT INTO A HEAVY RAIN EVENT
TONIGHT...GENERALLY AFFECTING AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED
A RATHER LARGE AMOUNT OF RAIN IN THE PAST WEEK OR TWO. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS ALREADY IN EFFECT...AND NO CHANGES APPEAR TO BE
PRUDENT AT THIS TIME.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW...THE RAIN WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT IN POSITION. WE EXPECT THE
RAIN TO BE MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD END ENTIRELY BY SUNDAY
MORNING. AFTER A RAIN-FREE AND UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY ON
SUNDAY...RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY NEXT
WEEK. SEVERE WEATHER NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE RELATIVELY UNCOMMON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  68  81  57 /  70 100  20  10
HOBART OK         96  65  85  55 /  30  30  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  99  73  88  59 /  50  30  20  10
GAGE OK           92  57  81  50 /  10  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     87  63  79  53 /  90  90  10   0
DURANT OK         90  73  84  61 /  10  30  50  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>020-024>026-028>032.

TX...NONE.
&&

03/04/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-011000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1249 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AFTER 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK IS ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM PONCA CITY TO KINGFISHER...EAST OF A LINE FROM
KINGFISHER TO LAWTON...NORTH OF A LINE FROM LAWTON TO ARDMORE...
TO ADA TO HOLDENVILLE. THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA IS IN THE
MODERATE RISK AREA.

THE SLIGHT RISK IS OUTSIDE THE MODERATE RISK...EAST OF A
MEDFORD TO CLINTON TO ALTUS TO KNOX CITY LINE.

LOCATIONS WEST OF A MEDFORD TO CLINTON TO ALTUS TO KNOX CITY
LINE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE SEVERE STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.

IMPACTS...
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF SOFTBALLS...
TORNADOES...
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH...
HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLOODING...

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY CONTINUE
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
THE RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
FIRST STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF A DRYLINE
AND STATIONARY FRONT COMBINATION...BETWEEN 3 AND 6 PM TODAY...
SOMEWHERE NEAR A PONCA CITY TO HOBART TO VERNON TEXAS LINE. THESE
STORMS WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AND MOST LIKELY BE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
AS THEY MOVE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE GREATEST IN
THE MODERATE RISK AREA FROM 4 PM TO 10 PM FROM DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
AS THE WIND SHEAR INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

STORMS THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES ALONG
OR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...
WITH AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING THREAT...
AND DECREASING LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF
OKLAHOMA...THOUGH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY JUN 1.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH INTO THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. WITH ALREADY SATURATED GROUND IN SOME
AREAS...THIS HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY. THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY...
BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE.

A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WILL OCCUR SUNDAY BEFORE STORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
5 AM SATURDAY.

MAXWELL/MBS

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