Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Norman, OK

505 
WWUS84 KOUN 141517
RFWOUN

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1017 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS...

.A DRYLINE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERY
DRY...HOT AND WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE DRYLINE.

OKZ033-036-TXZ083>085-087-088-150100-
/O.CON.KOUN.FW.W.0005.130414T1900Z-130415T0100Z/
HARMON-JACKSON-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-KNOX-BAYLOR-
1017 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR VERY WARM...DRY...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS...FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...

* WIND...SOUTHWEST TO WEST 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...10 TO 20 PERCENT.

* TEMPERATURE...88 TO 95 DEGREES.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR
  BURNING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FIRES MAY START EASILY AND SPREAD RAPIDLY. REPORT SMOKE OR FIRE
TO YOUR LOCAL FIRE DEPARTMENT OR LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

&&

$$

AUSTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

.AVIATION... STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NRN OK DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO CENTRAL/SWRN OK BY THE END OF THE PD. FORCING
ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A FEW TSTMS...MAINLY
NCNTRL OK AND WILL INCLUDE PROB GROUP THERE. WILL GENLY KEEP
CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE PD ALTHOUGH MOISTURE ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR
CIGS WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION SUNDAY MORNING IN EASTERN
AREAS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASESE WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2013/

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT IN NRN OK WHERE FRONT MOVES IN LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2013/

.DISCUSSION...
MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD BACK INTO THE AREA. THIS
MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT TO PROVIDE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW STORMS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SEVERE STORM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS A
DRYLINE WILL WORK EAST BRINGING IN SOME VERY DRY AIR INTO THOSE
AREAS... LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR A FEW
COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING.

FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND THEN SHOULD TRY
AND RETREAT BACK NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LARGER STORM
SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE TO OUR WEST. COULD SEE SOME SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS BOUNDARY RETREATS BACK
NORTH... HOWEVER WITH LACK OF STRONG FORCING AND EXPECTED CAP
CHANCES REMAIN LOW.

BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS LOOK TO OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS MAIN STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES
INTO THE PLAINS. STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO POSITION
OF FRONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES
AND WILL LEAVE MENTION OF SOME WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANT.

THEN COOLER AIR ONCE AGAIN WORKS INTO THE AREA AND ANOTHER FREEZE
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  54  79  55  77 /   0  10  20  10
HOBART OK         53  83  46  76 /   0  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  55  87  57  87 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           54  78  40  72 /   0  10  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     54  78  49  69 /  10  30  40  10
DURANT OK         54  78  63  83 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR OKZ014-021-033-034-036.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR TXZ083>085-087-088.

&&

84/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
215 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2013

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-141200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
215 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ENDED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE SHIFTS
TO TO THE EAST. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...A MILD AND STABLE AIRMASS
WILL PREVENT STORMS FROM DEVELOPING THROUGH TONIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY APR 14.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...0 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA EXTENDS FROM NEAR FREEDOM...
SOUTHWARD TO SEILING...AND EASTWARD TO HENNESSEY AND STILLWATER. A STRONG CAP
WILL BE IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY... WHICH WILL PREVENT STORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

A STRONG CAP WILL LIMIT THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IMPACT THE REGION. SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
A DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...VERY WARM...
BREEZY...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE DRYLINE OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA...AND A RED FLAG WARNING
MAY BE WARRANTED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. BURNING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANY FIRES THAT GET OUT OF CONTROL WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE A PROBLEM FOR PART OF
THE TIME DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL
OCCUR IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT.

WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN... WESTERN... AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BUT THE FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CERTAIN TO CHANGE WITH TIME.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 5 AM
SUNDAY.

MAXWELL/AUSTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
241 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SSW FREEDOM           36.73N 99.13W
04/14/2013  M60 MPH          WOODWARD           OK   MESONET

&&

EM