Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Norman, OK

539 
WWUS84 KOUN 102209
RFWOUN

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
409 PM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING CANCELLED...

OKZ036>039-044>046-050-TXZ083>090-102315-
/O.CAN.KOUN.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130211T0000Z/
JACKSON-TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-COTTON-JEFFERSON-CARTER-LOVE-
HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
409 PM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS CANCELLED THE RED FLAG
WARNING. 

WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ALTHOUGH HIGH FIRE DANGER REMAINS BECAUSE
OF LOW HUMIDITY AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS... THE LOWER WIND SPEEDS
WILL PREVENT AN EXTREME FIRE WEATHER DAY.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
337 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

.DISCUSSION...
WELL... QUITE A BIT GOING ON WITH THIS FORECAST.

FIRST OFF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EXITING SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE AREA
BEHIND DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT. STILL EXPECT RELATIVELY MILD
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH VERY LOW AFTN HUMIDITIES. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS... WHICH WILL APPROACH ADVISORY
SPEEDS... TO CREATE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HAVE THEREFORE UPGRADED
FIRE WEATHER WATCH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TO A RED FLAG
WARNING AND INCLUDED PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL. ON THE
FENCE FOR WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ROW OF OK COUNTIES... BUT
WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS POINT.

COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE ARE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS ONE COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
AREA TUESDAY. TRENDS IN MOST OF THE MODELS... INCLUDING
GFS/NAM/SREF... CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN QUICKLY
CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS A MAJORITY OF OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTH
TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES AND
HAVE BEGUN TO SHOW SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS EVENT. WILL
NEED TO WATCH THIS ONE CLOSELY AS MOST OF THE MODELS LAST FEW RUNS
CONTINUE TO COOL SFC AND NEAR SFC TEMPS IN THE COLUMN ABOVE THE
AREA AND WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF OKLAHOMA. WILL LIKELY ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS EVENT.

SOME WARMING EXPECTED MIDDLE OF THE WEEK... BUT IF SIGNIFICANT
SNOW DOES OCCUR THIS WARM UP WOULD BE TEMPERED. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY COOLING THINGS BACK DOWN FOR LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP THINGS DRY
BEYOND LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  62  33  52  33 /   0   0  10  40
HOBART OK         63  29  53  34 /   0   0  10  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  33  57  37 /   0   0  10  40
GAGE OK           58  23  47  30 /   0   0  10  40
PONCA CITY OK     60  29  49  31 /  10   0  10  20
DURANT OK         68  38  59  38 /  10   0  10  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ036>039-044>046-050.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

23/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
718 PM CST SAT FEB 9 2013

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-101100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
718 PM CST SAT FEB 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP. MODEST AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN WEAK INSTABILITY WHICH MAY RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS IS EAST AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
WAURIKA AND DUNCAN... TO PAULS VALLEY AND HOLDENVILLE OKLAHOMA. IF
SEVERE STORMS DO DEVELOP... HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST SUNDAY FEB 10.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...30 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
FOG... SOME POSSIBLY DENSE... WILL AFFECT PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN A MILE
WILL BE LIKELY IN SOME LOCATIONS. DRIVERS NEED TO BE PREPARED FOR A SUDDEN
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A FEW STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE...STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WILL BE ELEVATED SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. AT THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
SUNDAY FEBRUARY 10.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1226 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

OKZ045-TXZ090-100645-
JEFFERSON OK-CLAY TX-
1226 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JEFFERSON AND CLAY COUNTIES
UNTIL 1245 AM CST...

AT 1219 AM CST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BLUEGROVE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL UP TO HALF AN INCH IN DIAMETER.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TERRAL...BLUEGROVE AND JOY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

LAT...LON 3353 9829 3369 9840 3402 9782 3392 9775
      3392 9778 3389 9778 3390 9780 3388 9780
      3385 9786 3388 9794 3388 9798 3365 9798
TIME...MOT...LOC 0619Z 234DEG 58KT 3366 9826

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