Ice Storm Warning 2, NWS Norman, OK

Blaine County, OK, Caddo County, OK, Canadian County, OK, Cleveland County, OK, Comanche County, OK, Custer County, OK, Dewey County, OK, Garfield County, OK, Grady County, OK, Grant County, OK, Greer County, OK, Kay County, OK, Kingfisher County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, Lincoln County, OK, Logan County, OK, Major County, OK, McClain County, OK, Noble County, OK, Oklahoma County, OK, Payne County, OK, Pottawatomie County, OK, Seminole County, OK, Washita County, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1115 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2013

.AVIATION...
20/18Z TAFS...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA. POST FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS
HAVE TEMPORARILY SCATTERED OUT IN PARTS OF WESTERN OK...BUT THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH CLOUDS FILLING BACK IN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. GENLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO WIDESPREAD IFR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF THE PD. PRECIP EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SW LATE AFTN
INTO THE EVENING. SRN SITES WILL REMAIN LIQUID WITH FREEZING PRECIP
FARTHER NORTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2013/

.UPDATE...
WE WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADING TO A WARNING THIS MORNING. SYNOPTIC
MODELS LOOK TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN WARMING LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CONTINUED COLD
AIR ADVECTION. NOW THAT THE FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH AND WE SEE
HOW MUCH COOL AIR HAS ENTERED THE AREA... WE CAN MORE CONFIDENTLY
SEE THE AREA OF CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS...
ESPECIALLY NEAR AND JUST WEST AND NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY
METRO. LATEST MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT 4 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS WELL. WE ARE
COORDINATING THE DETAILS WITH WPC AND OTHERS RIGHT NOW TO
DETERMINE THE SPECIFIC AREAS TO UPGRADE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2013/

AVIATION...
STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY AFTN
WITH A PERIOD OF MARGINAL MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS. PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH FZRA LIKELY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. CEILINGS WILL ALSO DROP BACK
INTO THE MVFR CAT AS WELL AS SOME VIS.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2013/

DISCUSSION...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A QUICK PROGRESSION SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING... BRINGING TO AN END A PERIOD OF VERY MILD
WEATHER ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

FIRST OFF...WILL NEED TO MONITOR EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS SOME LIGHT ECHOES HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN KS INTO NORTHERN OK AND TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY IMPACT
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THESE SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH THIS MORNING INTO
THE COOLING AIRMASS FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL TO EXIST
BEFORE TEMPS WARM BACK ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTN. WILL NEED TO
WATCH ALL THIS CLOSELY THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE... MAIN FOCUS IS FOR LATER TODAY/TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS AND PRECIP TYPE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE COME IN A BIT COLDER AND ARE
STILL NOT AS COLD AS THEY NEED TO BE TO REPRESENT CURRENT TEMPS TO
OUR NORTH. THIS WILL COME INTO PLAY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
PRECIP CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. INITIALLY AS THIS
OCCURS... MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR
WILL BE VERY NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING CREATING A
FAIRLY LARGE AREA THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FREEZING RAIN. CURRENTLY
THINK SFC TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY... WHICH WOULD KEEP MOST ROADWAYS FROM ICING UP AS GROUND
TEMPS REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM. HOWEVER ELEVATED SFC SUCH AS
BRIDGES/OVERPASSES... TREES AND POWER-LINES MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME
ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE A WINTER
STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALREADY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS AS WELL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD PICK UP A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN.

STILL EXPECT SOME WARMING OF THE SFC TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY...
BUT ONLY A FEW DEGREES... KEEPING THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. FARTHER SOUTH... NEAR
THE I-44 CORRIDOR IT WILL ONLY TAKE A ONE OR TWO DEGREE CHANGE TO
MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE AND CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TEMP IS STILL
NOT HIGH... BUT WILL KEEP WITH THE CURRENT TREND IN SHIFTING THE
FREEZING RAIN NORTHWARD WITH A COLD RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF THE STATE.

UPPER LOW EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE AREA QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIER PRECIP END WITH A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO
SNOW AS THE PRECIP ENDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
STILL APPEARS THAT PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA COULD RECEIVE A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE.

A BIT MORE TRANQUIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A MODEST WARMING
TREND. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  34  32  36  27 /  30  90  90  40
HOBART OK         36  33  36  25 /  20  80  70  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  43  34  43  31 /  60  90  80  20
GAGE OK           32  28  31  19 /  10  50  70  70
PONCA CITY OK     33  28  33  22 /  10  70  90  80
DURANT OK         62  38  47  35 /  60  90  90  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR OKZ004>026.

TX...NONE.
&&

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