Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
640 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING ARE MAINLY
NEAR OF EAST OF I-35.  STORMS NEAR OUN SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.  WINDS SHOULD
BACK ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AND LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD FORM ACROSS AT LEAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
OVERNIGHT (MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS). A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL MENTION
STORMS MAINLY AFTER 21Z FOR PNC/OKC/OUN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...THROUGH 2 PM...SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRY
LINE/BOUNDARY...WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM JUST W OF LAWTON TO
JUST NORTH OF STILLWATER. WITH AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES ARE ALL
POSSIBLE. INDIVIDUAL SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE MERGING INTO A LINE AND PUSHING
EAST OVERNIGHT ACROSS ERN OK INTO THE OZARKS. AT THE MOMENT...A
TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT.

FOR THIS DISCUSSION...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN LIES IN THE NEAR
TERM AS SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

THROUGH FRI MORNING...INCREASING RIDGING OVER THE PAC NW WILL AID
IN THE EWRD PROGRESSION OF THE 500MB TROUGH. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID DAY
FRI...ANOTHER SUBTLE SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SEWD OFF THE FRONT RANGE
THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS...THE MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WILL RESULT IN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SINKING SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE AFTN FRI. WITH THE FRONT IN
PLAY...THE DRY LINE ALSO MAKES ANOTHER PUSH EASTWARD...LIKELY
STALLING JUST SHY OF A MEDFORD TO WEATHERFORD TO SEYMOUR TX LINE.
WITHIN THE 12Z GUIDANCE...THE GFS REMAINS THE MORE BULLISH MEMBER
WITH THE SURGE OF THE DRY LINE AND STRENGTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM CENTRAL INTO NERN OK.

WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE DRY LINE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES...INCLUDING TORNADOES...WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SFC TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL OK...INTO THE UPPER 80S/MID 90S...WHILE
SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON INCREASING 0-1
AND 0-3KM HELICITY ACROSS CENTRAL OK AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE. WITH
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL/700-500MB LAPSE RATES OF
OVER 9 C/KM...SUPPORT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS/SUPERCELLS WILL BE WELL
ESTABLISHED. TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY
FRI AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AS INITIAL
SUPERCELLS MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...EXPECT THE REMAINING
CONVECTION TO MERGE INTO A LINE/MCS BEFORE EXITING ERN OK INTO THE
OZARKS.

FLOODING THREAT...
WITH CONTINUOUS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM CENTRAL
INTO ERN OK...FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW (FRI). SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE COLD FRONT
FROM CENTRAL INTO ERN OK FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING. IN
RESPONSE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL OK THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SWD THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXITING ACROSS
S/SERN OK. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS ANOTHER WAVE ENTERS THE REGION EARLY TUE THROUGH WED.

KURTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  88  68  81 /  20  70  60  30
HOBART OK         68  96  67  85 /  10  30  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  97  74  88 /  20  20  20  30
GAGE OK           57  90  57  81 /   0  10  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     70  85  65  79 /  50  70  70  10
DURANT OK         73  89  73  84 /  20  20  20  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>020-024>026-028>032.

TX...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
259 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-312000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
259 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD... TO
WATONGA... TO ALTUS OKLAHOMA... TO CROWELL AND KNOX CITY TEXAS.
THE MODERATE RISK EXTENDS EAST OF A LINE FROM STILLWATER...TO
OKLAHOMA CITY...TO CHICKASHA...TO DAVIS...TO ATOKA.

IMPACTS...
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF BASEBALLS... WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
TORNADOES.

TIMING...
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 10 PM.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
THE RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR AND EAST OF
A DRYLINE THAT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA AT 3 PM. STRONG INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. THE
STORMS WILL MOVE EAST...INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS SOMEWHAT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY MAY 30.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
FRIDAY... DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY...BUT THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
WITH STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT
5 AM FRIDAY.

CMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
635 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

OKZ019-025-026-029-030-310030-
LOGAN OK-OKLAHOMA OK-LINCOLN OK-CLEVELAND OK-POTTAWATOMIE OK-
635 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN LOGAN...OKLAHOMA...
LINCOLN...CLEVELAND AND NORTHERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES UNTIL
730 PM...

...THIS IS A SPECIAL FORECAST FOR THE TORNADO RECOVERY AREAS...

AT 630 PM...SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING
JUST SOUTH OF CHICKASHA EASTWARD TO PURCELL. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF NORMAN.

OUTSIDE OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS...NO ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE RECOVERY AREAS. HOWEVER...WE WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY AND ISSUE ADDITIONAL SPECIAL FORECASTS AS NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3541 9671 3543 9673 3541 9677 3525 9678
      3503 9736 3507 9735 3509 9740 3513 9740
      3524 9756 3530 9757 3531 9764 3534 9767
      3578 9767 3592 9694 3575 9663
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 260DEG 14KT 3498 9766

11

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
644 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             HENNEPIN                34.51N 97.35W
05/30/2013  E1.00 INCH       MURRAY             OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MDAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
650 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

OKZ027>030-039-040-310030-
MCCLAIN OK-GRADY OK-GARVIN OK-CLEVELAND OK-POTTAWATOMIE OK-
STEPHENS OK-
650 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MCCLAIN...CENTRAL GRADY...
NORTHERN GARVIN...CENTRAL CLEVELAND...SOUTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE AND
NORTHEASTERN STEPHENS COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 645 PM CDT...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS EXTENDED FROM
NEAR PURCELL...SOUTH AND WEST TO NEAR RUSH SPRING AND MARLOW. THIS
CLUSTER WAS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AT AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF NEWCASTLE AND MOORE.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PURCELL...NOBLE...MARLOW...SLAUGHTERVILLE...LINDSAY...LEXINGTON...
MAYSVILLE...RUSH SPRINGS...GOLDSBY...PINK...BRAY...NINNEKAH...
WAYNE...PAOLI...ALEX...WASHINGTON...COLE...WANETTE...DIBBLE AND
BYARS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3459 9793 3492 9810 3498 9809 3528 9707
      3483 9694
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 254DEG 30KT 3473 9786

AUSTIN

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