Special Weather Statement, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
143 PM EDT TUE SEP 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
ON THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE
REST OF THIS WEEK...AND SLIDE TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
AGAIN BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT...LYING N/S ACROSS WESTERN LI AND FAIRFIELD COUNTY WILL
SLOWLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
AXIS LIES AHEAD OF IT...WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY AND SE CT. ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE HEAVY
RAIN. PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IS ACROSS SE SUFFOLK
COUNTY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUATION OF TRAINING
STORMS AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT. ACROSS NYC AND PTS WEST...DESPITE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL FOCUS SHOULD KEEP
ACTIVITY ISOLATED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
NW POST-FRONTAL FLOW WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR...WITH CLEARING
SKIES. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT
55-60 IN THE VALLEYS NORTH/WEST OF NYC AND IN THE LONG ISLAND PINE
BARRENS. A SUNNY DAY ON TAP FOR WED...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 80S...WARMEST IN URBAN NE NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATING
THE NORTHEAST WITH LARGE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY AND A CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE PAC NW. THE NE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HEIGHTS FINALLY
RISING BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE CMC WHICH DEVELOPS THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE
LESSER ANTILLES BUT CURVES IT NORTHWARD NEAR 70W ON FRI AND
CONTINUES IT ON A NNE TRACK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS HAS
ALSO JUMPED ON THIS IDEA AS WELL...ALTHOUGH IS NOT NEARLY AS DEEP AS
THE CMC. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE JUST SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH THE PASSING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT ON SUN.

DESPITE A FAIRLY ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM...FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER IS
EXPECTED LOCALLY. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
THU MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD SHOWERS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES BEHIND IT. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH A SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE HIGH SINKS TO
THE S ON FRI NIGHT/SAT. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING HUMIDITY
LEVELS ONCE AGAIN BEFORE YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON
SUN. CANADIAN HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS IN FOR MON.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS...EXCEPT THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI
NIGHT WHERE THEY WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

THE COLD FRONT IS NOW EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WINDS HAVE BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST AND CIGS HAVE IMPROVED TO
MVFR...WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED BY MID-AFTERNOON. A FEW
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 18 KT IS POSSIBLE

WHERE THE FRONT HAS NOT YET CROSSED...CONDITIONS REMAIN MVFR OR
LESS...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WILL BEGIN.

AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS
WHICH COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS FROM FORECAST. CONDITIONS COULD
FLUCTUATE BY ONE CATEGORY AT TIMES.

VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH NORTHWEST-WEST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS IMPROVEMENT OF CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH NW FLOW...GUSTING EARLY.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SUB-VFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AFTER ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TODAY...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
NW FLOW COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
MAINLY ON THE OCEAN...AND OCEAN SEAS IN W FLOW TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BUILDS AS HIGH AS 4 FT OUT EAST.

AN INCREASING SW FLOW ON SAT MAY GUST UP TO 20 KT ON THE EASTERN
OCEAN/SOUND/BAYS. SEAS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS MAY ALSO
APPROACH MARGINAL SCA LEVELS AS A RESULT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY
CONCERN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IS ACROSS SE SUFFOLK COUNTY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH TRAINING STORMS AND FLASH FLOOD
THREAT.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD...THE NEW
YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 HAS BEEN
TEMPORARILY TAKEN OUT OF SERVICE WHILE A SOLUTION IS
BEING FORMULATED.

DURING THIS TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO PUBLIC WARNING
SYSTEM DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TESTS OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/NV
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/24
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/24
EQUIPMENT...

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1203 PM EDT TUE SEP 3 2013

NYZ081-031700-
SOUTHEAST SUFFOLK-
1203 PM EDT TUE SEP 3 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY...

AT 1158 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR EAST HAMPTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3
INCHES AN HOUR...IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 4104 7188 4095 7216 4103 7221 4106 7214
      4105 7212 4103 7213 4100 7209 4103 7206
      4102 7203 4106 7199 4105 7197 4108 7196
      4109 7190 4107 7185

NV

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1236 PM EDT TUE SEP 3 2013

NYZ079-081-031745-
NORTHEAST SUFFOLK-SOUTHEAST SUFFOLK-
1236 PM EDT TUE SEP 3 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SUFFOLK COUNTY...

AT 1232 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NOYACK TO
WESTHAMPTON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. IN
ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES
AN HOUR...IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 4103 7191 4080 7263 4092 7246 4096 7245
      4097 7240 4104 7239 4101 7233 4104 7234
      4105 7237 4107 7216 4102 7212 4108 7211
      4109 7215 4112 7212 4110 7207 4100 7210
      4108 7196 4108 7187

NV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
112 PM EDT TUE SEP 03 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 AM     HAIL             HAMPTON BAYS            40.88N  72.52W
09/03/2013  E1.00 INCH       SUFFOLK            NY   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
147 PM EDT TUE SEP 03 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     LIGHTNING        HAMPTON BAYS            40.88N  72.52W
09/03/2013                   SUFFOLK            NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HAMPTON BAYS POLICE COMMUNICATIONS DOWN DUE TO
            LIGHTNING STRIKE.

&&

JP

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