Small Craft Advisory 44, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1045 AM EDT SUN APR 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH
AND THEN TRACK WELL EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SURGE OF CAA BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL HAVE NORTHERLY
WINDS BRIEFLY GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10 MPH. WITH
THE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE AREA...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST BY THIS AFTERNOON.

CLEAR AND DRY.

HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...WHICH IS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT PUSHES EAST. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S. WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE PATCHY FROST IN
THE FORECAST BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ANY FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES FOR NOW.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THE HIGH STILL TO THE NORTH. A COASTAL
LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA AND TRACK NORTHWARD. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
CLOSER TO THE REGION. DAYTIME HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WILL REACH THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S.

USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS STILL SIGNALING A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE ROTATING UP THE COAST...WITH ACCOMPANYING
SOUTHERN LOW APPROACHING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS STILL GOOD CLUSTERING BETWEEN OPER AND ENSEMBLE MEAN
SOLUTIONS FOR LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST OF THE 40/70 LAT/LON WITH
ONLY FRINGE IMPACTS FOR THE AREA...WITH ONLY THE OPER GEM/ENSEMBLE
MEAN TRACKING THE LOW OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK AND BRINGING A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT. THE GEM TRADITIONALLY OVER INTENSIFIES
THESE SYSTEM OF SUB-TROPICAL ORIGIN...SO IT HAS BEEN RULED AN
OUTLIER. HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS...BUT TRENDED DOWNWARD TO
LOW CHANCE MON NIGHT INTO TUES EVE. MAIN IMPACT AT THIS TIME
APPEARS TO BE BREEZY CONDITIONS MON THRU TUE. ONSHORE FLOW AND
CLOUDY CONDS WITH THIS LOW WILL LIKELY HAVE TEMPS REMAINING BELOW
SEASONABLE ON TUE.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRIEF RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE
COASTAL LOW TUES NIGHT/EARLY WED...BEFORE A SUBSEQUENT NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
REGION LATE WED INTO THU MORNING TIME PERIOD. WITH MODELS CONVERGING
ON FRONTAL TIMING HAVE INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE. CANT RULE OUT
SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION BASED ON PATTERN...PARTICULARLY FAR
WESTERN SECTIONS...BUT WILL EAVE OUT AT THIS POINT. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TEMPS REBOUND TO NEAR
SEASONABLE ON WED.

THEREAFTER...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT EXIST FOR UPPER FLOW BECOMING A
BIT MORE ZONAL WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK/SAT PERIOD. IF THIS HOLDS TRUE...DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS
MODERATING TOWARDS SEASONABLE WOULD BE REALIZED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

WINDS MAIN CONCERN TODAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS PSBL
THROUGH 17Z...WITH WINDS THEN DIMINISHING TO BETWEEN 8 TO 10 KTS
FOR THE AFTN. WINDS SHIFT FROM A NLY FLOW TO ELY THIS
AFTN...MOD CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...WITH PSBL SHIFTS +/- 1-2 HOURS
THAN IN TAFS. IN GENERAL...EXPECT A QUICK SHIFT FROM N TO E
BETWEEN 19Z TO 23Z.

FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
COVERAGE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY...VFR...EXCEPT MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT IN
RAIN. EAST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN RAIN.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR LOWER IN LATE DAY -SHRA
AND POSSIBLE -TSRA. SOUTH WINDS 15-20 KT.
.THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER IN LINGERING -SHRA EARLY...IMPROVING TO
VFR BY AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT EAST OF
FIRE ISLAND INLET AS WINDS/SEAS FELL BELOW CRITERIA. GENERALLY
TRANQUIL CONDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

WINDS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE LIKELY TO BUILD BACK TO SCA LEVELS
ON MON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH
AND A WEAK LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ON
ALL WATERS MON INTO TUE...AND LIKELY ON THE OCEAN.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TUES NIGHT...BUT OCEAN SEAS MAY
REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS INTO MIDWEEK WITH CONTINUED EASTERLY SWELLS.
WINDS COULD COME BACK UP TO SCA LATE WED/WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE PROBABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BC/NV
NEAR TERM...BC/MPS
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...BC/MPS/NV
HYDROLOGY...BC

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