Small Craft Advisory 104, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
407 PM EST FRI DEC 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...THEN LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. THE STORM
CENTER EVENTUALLY PASSES JUST SOUTH OF TRI STATE AREA LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THERE WILL BE SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...SO IN SPITE OF INCREASING CLOUDS...NOT EXPECTING RISING
TEMPERATURES...BUT SOME SPOTS COULD STILL REMAIN STEADY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PERHAPS LIGHT SNOW OR A FEW FLURRIES REACHING THE
WESTERNMOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE 500MB PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...ZONAL THROUGH
ROUGHLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING EVENT...FOLLOWED BY TROUGHING
DURING THE SECOND HALF. HOWEVER...GOOD LIFT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPLIED
BY A LOW LEVEL JET WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TONIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE SYNOPTIC LIFT COURTESY OF THE REGION
BEING UNDER A FAVORABLE REGION OF A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AT
300-200MB PASSING THROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LOW PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS DURING SATURDAY...THEN
CONSOLIDATES NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
LOW CENTER PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...PCPN BECOMES LIKELY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...POTENTIALLY BECOMES HEAVY AT TIMES
TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE AT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
WITH ANTECEDENT COLD TEMPERATURES...ALL AREAS START OUT AS SNOW. A
WINTRY MIX THEN DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOST SPOTS WITH AN
EVENTUAL COMPLETE TRANSITION TO RAIN FOR AT LEAST THE COASTAL
SECTIONS.

AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER AT APPROX 900-800MB AND THE DEGREE OF COLD
AIR DAMMING AT THE SURFACE WILL BE MAIN FACTORS IN INTRODUCING SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN TO PARTS OF THE AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THAT
THIS LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP PCPN AS ALL SNOW FOR ONLY THE
FAR NW CORNER OF THE CWA. DIFFERENCES THE TIMING OF WHEN THIS LAYER
SHIFTS INTO THE AREA IS NOT LARGE...HOWEVER EVEN THESE SMALL
DIFFERENCES WOULD HAVE IMPACT ON SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS
AND APPROPRIATE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. FOR THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE...LEANED TOWARDS THE COLDER GUIDANCE...NOTING THE
STRENGTH OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND ITS POSITION FOR GOOD
COLD AIR DAMMING AND MORE OF A BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

FOR QPF...WENT NEAR WPC GUIDANCE...NOTING AN UPWARD TREND OVER THE
PAST FEW MODELS RUNS...BUT STILL BELOW THE 12Z MODEL AVERAGE. THE
SYSTEM MIGHT BE TOO QUICK TO SQUEEZE OUT WHAT THE MODEL AVERAGE
SHOWS. BANDING OF HEAVY PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH SIGNALS
ARE NOT STRONG FOR A SLOW-MOVING BAND. SOMEWHAT BETTER OVERALL
CHANCES FOR BANDING WOULD BE SHIFTING THROUGH EASTERN HALF OF ZONES
FOR THE FEW HOURS SURROUNDING EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH GOOD 700MB OMEGA AND BEING SITUATED ON THE
EAST SIDE OF A DEVELOPING 700MB LOW CENTER.

SOME ICING IS EXPECTED...GENERALLY FOR PARTS OF THE CITY AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. A TRACE TO A QUARTER INCH OF
FREEZING RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST.

ALL AREAS THAT HAD A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE CONVERTED TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING...AND HAVE INCLUDED SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX COUNTY
IN THIS WARNING. HIGHEST SNOW/SLEET TOTALS WILL BE OVER THE NW
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE 8 TO 11 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER AN ADVISORY FOR
NOW...HOWEVER...SOME OF THE ADVISORY ZONES BORDERING THE WARNING MAY
NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING SINCE IT IS SUCH A CLOSE CALL...AND
A RELATIVELY SHARP GRADIENT IN SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED.

ONLY A LOW CHANCE OF LINGERING PCPN BY SUNDAY MORNING. TURNING
OUT PARTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE CANADA/US BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIME AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND DEEPENS. A SURFACE TROUGH DOES REMAIN BACK
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...LITTLE MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISE IF A FEW FLURRIES OCCUR
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ALL MODELS BRING IN A MUCH COLDER AIR
MASS BEHIND THE LOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. NEAR ZONAL FLOW
REMAINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...CLIPPER TYPE...MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE
EAST...THIS SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
IS DEVELOPING IN THE COLD AIRMASS...HOWEVER WARM ADVECTION WILL
BRING RAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH SNOW INLAND. WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY
USED A BLEND OF THE WPC GUIDANCE AND ECMWF. UPPER FLOW REMAINS
NEARLY ZONAL WITH QUICK FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL HAVE STRONG RETURN FLOW WITH WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF AND WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE FOR FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME
THE TREND IS FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...SENDING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.

PRIMARILY A VFR FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS ARRIVING TOWARD
DAYBREAK SAT. LIGHT SNOW THEN DEVELOPS BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z SAT WITH
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

W WINDS MAINLY FROM 270-290 DEG AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT
THROUGH ABOUT 21Z...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVE.
NE WINDS 5-10 KT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END SOONER THAN FORECAST. SNOW MAY
BEGIN AN HOUR OR TWO SOONER THAN FORECAST.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF PERIOD OF CIGS AROUND 3-4 KFT PSBL THIS
AFT. SNOW MAY BEGIN AN HOUR OR TWO SOONER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF PERIOD OF CIGS AROUND 3-4 KFT PSBL THIS
AFT. SNOW MAY BEGIN AN HOUR OR TWO SOONER THAN FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF PERIOD OF CIGS AROUND 3-4 KFT PSBL THIS AFT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF PERIOD OF CIGS AROUND 3-4 KFT PSBL THIS
AFT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY PERSIST AN HOUR LONGER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.SAT...IFR/LIFR IN DEVELOPING SNOW AND FOG AREA-WIDE.
.SAT NIGHT...NYC/NJ METRO INCLUDING LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL
CT...IFR/LIFR IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN AT THE COAST. WEST AND NORTH
OF NYC...SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. E WINDS G20-30KT
MAINLY FROM NYC E.
.SUNDAY...BECOMING VFR. NW WINDS G20-25 KT INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
.MON...VFR.
.TUE...CHANCE OF SUB-VFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...GUSTY WNW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL RELAX TONIGHT WITH
SUBSIDING WINDS. SCA GUSTS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN WATERS UNTIL
EARLY EVENING. A LULL IN WINDS THEN FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
WINDS RAMP UP TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. IT
LOOKS LIKE ALL WATERS WILL EVENTUALLY NEED AT LEAST A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...BUT THE OCEAN WATERS COULD REQUIRE A GALE WARNING FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL LET THE EVENING SHIFT PUT UP THE NEW HEADLINES
AFTER THE CURRENT ONES EXPIRE THIS EVENING.

GUSTY WIND WILL REMAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
POSSIBLE...AND SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS ON THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WIND AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS BY MONDAY NIGHT. A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE
WATERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE COASTAL LOW. LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF RANGES FROM AN INCH TO
AN INCH AND A HALF. MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING COULD OCCUR FOR COASTAL
AREAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS LOW.

DRY LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 HAS
BEEN RETURNED TO SERVICE. HOWEVER...IF ISSUES ARISE AGAIN DUE TO
INTERFERENCE WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD EMERGENCY BROADCAST
CHANNEL...THE TRANSMITTER MAY NEED TO BE TAKEN OUT OF SERVICE. IF THIS
DOES OCCUR...A NOTICE WILL BE MADE TO THE PUBLIC NOTIFYING THEM OF
SUCH.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     CTZ005>007-009-010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR CTZ008-011.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR CTZ012.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ067>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     340-350-353.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET
EQUIPMENT...

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